Greene, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXUS61 KBOX 061127
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
627 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast today with very light snow or rain showers during the
first part of the day before clouds decrease in the evening.
Another round of scattered showers is possible in the afternoon.
Arctic front moves through overnight Sunday into Monday morning
with a some brief scattered snow showers possible. Well below
normal temperatures Monday before slowly moderating
Tuesday/Wednesday. More unsettled overall next week with a few
disturbances moving through bringing periodic chances for
rain/snow showers late Tue-Wed and Wed- Thu.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

* Scattered snow/rain showers possible early this morning and in the
  afternoon

* Cloudy conditions for most of the day

A warm/moist air advection pattern continues through today with
light southerly flow. Temperatures this morning have been improving
from the earlier nighttime hours as a result, and should continue to
do so through the day today. Improvement will be limited by mostly
overcast conditions across the region, but highs should at reach the
mid 30s today for most with low 40s possible for the Cape and
Islands.

Showers this morning over Long Island haven`t moved much northeast,
however some echoes are starting to pop up along the south coast
where some surface fgen sits as of 2 AM. Light snow showers with
occasional drizzle mixed in will be possible this morning through
around noon across southern New England. No major impacts are
expected with these showers; at most, some drizzle freezing to the
surface could lead to some slick spots on the roads this morning.
But given the latest radar data and forecast soundings, confidence
is lower in more persistent bands of precipitation developing that
would lead to this. Spotty showers of snow and rain are the primary
expectation this morning. CAMs indicate the chance for some showers
over eastern MA and Cape Cod for the afternoon as well, but
confidence in spatial extent and exact timing is not as high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Clearing skies and dry conditions with light WNW winds overnight

* Partly sunny through the day ahead of a disturbance approaching
  from the Great Lakes

Skies clear a bit heading into tonight with drier air aloft flowing
in. Light WNW winds prevail as well as the warm air advection
pattern starts to come to an end. 925 mb temperatures fall towards -
5C again overnight. Lows are expected to be in the upper teens in
the interior and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere, aside from the
outer Cape where temperatures should be closer to freezing. With
most everyone falling below freezing again tonight, any melting
snowpack will most likely refreeze.

Another shortwave disturbance moves east from the Great Lakes region
during the day Sunday, but we shouldn`t see impacts from it until
the evening/overnight hours. Ahead of this shortwave, cloud cover
will increase and NW winds will remain weak before shifting more
southerly in the evening. Highs Sunday should be similar to today,
reaching the mid 30s and low 40s ahead of an arctic front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* More arctic air arrives Sunday night into the early part of next
  week.

* Few snow showers possible Sun night-early Mon. Very light
  accumulations, if any (< 1.0").

* Periodic chances for precipitation next week (Tue-Wed & Wed-Thu),
  exact timing, amounts lower confidence.

 Details...

A weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move through the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Deterministic/ensemble
guidance has come into better agreement on the details of the
system. Lack of forcing and moisture will keep this as a lighter
precipitation evening. However, the arctic front should provide
enough lift to support showers as it drops across southern New
England late Sun night into early Monday morning. Ensembles indicate
mainly low-moderate (15-50%) probabilities for greater than 0.01" of
liquid precipitation with the higher chances north of the Mass Pike.
Overall this means scattered snow showers are possible with the
passage of the arctic front. Accumulations are likely to be very
light with ensembles displaying zero to low probs of snow greater
than an inch, so perhaps a quick trace to a few tenths for the
higher elevations of MA. A strong arctic front will follow bringing
another shot of arctic air into the region.

Arctic airmass will continue to advect into the southern New England
on Monday with 850mb temperatures falling to -15 to -18C. This will
support well below normal high temperatures in the 20s and low 30s
for the Cape/Islands. There is also a signal for gusty winds to
develop Friday with a LLJ/tightened gradient positioned over the
region. The overall strength of the LLJ varies across model
guidance, but there is a good consensus that with the help of the
CAA, there should be ample mixing of higher winds aloft to the
surface. Gusts 25-35 mph are most likely, but will have to keep on
eye on the strength of the LLJ and depth of mixing to see if
there is potential for highs gusts (up to 40 mph) in areas such
as the Cape. The added wind will make it feel considerably
colder, potentially bringing wind chills into the teens and low
20s. Mainly dry conditions with the exception of a few ocean-
effect showers for the Cape/Islands. Monday night will be a
chilly one thanks to optimal radiational cooling under the well
below normal airmass. Temperatures will likely drop into the
single digits for most of the interior and teens for the coastal
areas.

Temperatures moderate Tuesday with flow from the SW. Highs still
lean a little below normal in the mid/upper 20s for the higher
elevations and 30s elsewhere.

Confidence in the pattern decreases toward mid-week. There is a
consensus among ensembles for quasi-zonal flow aloft with a few
embedded disturbances moving through. However, there still are
differences in the details in the timing/amounts. This should bring
periodic chances for showers through the week with the first shot at
some showers later Tuesday and another round of more widespread
chances late Wednesday into Thursday. Precip type will become more
clear as we gain more details about the system track, but
temperatures lean warmer for Wednesday (rain or rain/snow showers
higher up). Highs Wednesday range in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Stay
tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update:

Today...Moderate confidence.

Low end VFR to MVFR stratus. Widely scattered light showers both
SN and RA ending by mid afternoon. Confidence is moderate
regarding exact ptype. Accumulating or measurable precip isn`t
expected with either type. TEMPOs and VCSHs included across the
region for spotty coverage of precip.

MVFR stratus improves to VFR levels between 16-18z from west to
east, 19-22z for BOS, and 22-01z for Cape/Islands. Light
southerly winds shifting SW/SSW this morning, then shifting to
light WSW/W accompanying the improvement to VFR.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. W to NW winds around 5 kt. Low chance for patchy fog in
the valleys.

Sunday...High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. MVFR. Very
light SN possible through 15z-18z, with potentially a last round
of showers early afternoon. No accums are expected and any
-FZDZ probably not persistent enough for runway impacts. MVFR
cigs improve to VFR after 19z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. MVFR. Very
light SN possible through 16z. No accums are expected and any FZDZ
probably not persistent enough for runway impacts. MVFR cigs
improve to VFR after 16z. Low visbys possible for bands of SN.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA, slight chance
SN.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tranquil boating conditions expected through Sun, with winds
and seas below small craft advisory thresholds. Light S winds
continue into most of today, then become NW tonight around 10-15
kt. Seas 3 ft or less all waters thru Sun.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
snow, slight chance of rain, slight chance of freezing rain.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Slight chance of freezing rain, slight chance of snow.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of
rain.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statement issued for this morning`s high tide
cycle along the eastern MA coast and Nantucket due to
astronomical king tides. This is expected to be marginal as
winds and swell aren`t as favorable. Some splashover and some
minor coastal flooding are possible in low lying areas/roads.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Hrencecin/Mensch
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hrencecin