Greene, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

417
FXUS61 KBOX 082308
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
708 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry and pleasant temperatures are in store for the region
today. A few showers are possible on Monday, but the bulk of the
rain with the next system will hold off until Tuesday. Dry and
warmer weather follows for Wednesday and Thursday...but it looks to
turn cooler again next weekend with perhaps a period of unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...

* Low chance for a few isolated showers overnight

Tonight:

Satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds across southern
New England this afternoon. A thin layer of haze is being
observed in areas this afternoon, likely from wildfire smoke
aloft. Otherwise fairly quiet late afternoon which should
persist overnight as well.

Lower clouds move back into the region tonight ahead of an
approaching weak shortwave trough that lifts northeast across
the region Monday. There is a low chance for a few isolated
showers overnight into early Monday morning. Otherwise, most
spots should remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key
Messages...

* Chance for a few isolated showers across the region Monday

Monday and Monday Night:

A shortwave trough lifts northeast across the region Monday
resulting in a mainly cloudy and slightly unsettled day Monday.
Forcing with the system is pretty limited keeping the coverage
of showers low. Expect a low chance (< 30%) for some isolated
showers Monday-Monday night. Highs range in the mid-upper 60s
with some low 70s possible in the CT Valley. Easterly onshore
flow will keep the east facing coastline a tad cooler in the low
to mid 60s during the day. Overall, slightly below normal for
this time of year. Monday night, temperatures drop into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday

* Dry Wed through at least Thu, then increasing chances for rain
  Friday into the weekend, especially Saturday.

* Cooler Tuesday; heat peak Wed/Thu then cooling down into the
  weekend.

Tuesday will be the wettest day of the week thanks to a weak surface
low which lifts from the mid Atlantic into northern New England over
the course of the day coincident with a weak mid level shortwave
rounding the base of a broader northeast trough. As such, a warm
front will lift north after 12Z placing the region in the warm
sector as dewpoint rise into the low to mid 60s. This contributes to
several hundred J/kg of CAPE, but lapse rates are minimal as is lift
given a late cold frontal passage after sunset, so expecting garden
variety thunderstorms, nothing severe. Temperatures will be the
coolest of the week, in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday mid level ridging and nearby surface high
pressure will keep conditions sunny and dry. Temperatures will climb
into the mid to upper 80s thanks to warm advection and dry,
downsloping west winds. Flow becomes more zonal Friday and
uncertainty increases as to timing of potential disturbances, but
rain chances will increase Friday going into what could be another
wet weekend as another coastal low may be in the vicinity. Much to
soon to write another Saturday off as a rainout, but current NBM
probabilites for measurable rain are around 40-50%.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight...Moderate confidence (ceilings)

Onshore flow result in MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys developing early
evening near the coast. IFR cigs return to the Cape/Islands
00-03z. Otherwise expect MVFR/IFR cigs to arrive later after
06z. Light NE winds.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR/IFR ceilings Monday. There is a chance for an isolated
shower or two throughout the day. E/ENE winds 5-13 knots.

BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Monday Night...High confidence.

Weak high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes keep winds E/NE
and with a weaker gradient, below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Waves 2-4 ft. Can`t rule out areas of fog overnight tonight.
Few isolated showers possible Monday. Risk for patchy fog again
Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Mensch
MARINE...BW/Mensch