York, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

150
FXUS61 KCTP 141851
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
251 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Front stalling over the CWA will be dissipating, but isolated
  showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through
  Saturday
* Drier air over the northern tier should keep it dry there
* New cold front drops in from the north on Sunday, generating
  storms, especially for the northern half of PA

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold frontal boundary is becoming more diffuse and expect
little trace of it as the evening wears on. Showers and an
isolated thunderstorm are dotting the southeastern PA landscape
this afternoon with a few heavy downpours.

The rain and convection is marching steadily to the south and
east with only isolated showers behind it that have a difficult
time staying organized. North and northwestern PA will remain
dry and more pleasant with lower dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Clearing comes to almost all of Central PA with fog again
possible tonight, even with slightly lower dewpoints in the
Alleghenies. The cooler temps up there and drying not impressive
at all, they should develop valley fog there. Friday morning
will be the coolest of this stretch (M50s-70F) as high pressure
moves in. Sunshine may destabilize the atmos enough once again
to make a 20 PoP warranted Friday. Dewpoints will stay much
higher than earlier expectations, as the true drier/cooler
airmass stops halfway thru the CWA. 20-30 PoPs fr the SE half of
the area for the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the current cold front dissipates very slowly, another
will approach on the NW flow rolling over the big central US
upper ridge. That second front shouldn`t arrive until Sun. But,
Sat may not be entirely dry (as previously advertised) with
dewpoints still in the 60s everywhere - and upper 60s SE of UNV.
Much of the CWA has a 20 PoP painted over it.

The Sunday cold front will touch off many more SHRA/TSRA esp in
the N. The sfc high behind it should be strong enough to push
the front to the srn border, but it will then linger nearby. Not
much, if any, of a reprieve from SHRA/TSRA is expected with a
constant flow from the WNW and upstream moisture streaming in
every 18-24 hrs. TC Erin is expected to deepen extremely but
remain off-shore as she re-curves into the nrn Atlantic mid-
late week, and PA will not be affected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon south of I-80 and will continue into the early
evening. UNV will likely see the chance for showers and
thunderstorms come to an end by 19Z, while they could stick
around at MDT and LNS through ~21Z. A couple of showers are
possible elsewhere, but the chances are generally less than 30%.

Clearing skies are expected overnight and VFR conditions are
likely at all TAF sites. Some patchy valley fog will form with
mainly clear skies and light winds, but the probability is too
low to include any fog in the TAFs for now.

Outlook...

Fri...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...Mainly VFR, but chance of a shower or storm north late.

Mon...Chance of a shower early, then clearing.

Tue...A couple of showers possible, mainly west of UNV.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Tyburski
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Bauco