Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS61 KBGM 030603
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning much warmer today with highs rising into the 70s.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be around mainly in the
morning. Generally dry and seasonable weather returns on
Friday, before another slow moving frontal system arrives with
periods of rain expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The warming trend continues to be slow across northern portions
of central New York heading toward the overnight. For the most
part precipitation continues to be fairly light despite the
bright banding showing up on radar. The reports of sleet mixing
in are decreasing as we reach saturation as well.

Adjusted temperatures for evaporational cooling with the early
evening update across the region with the mixed precipitation
late this afternoon. Precipitation has fallen mainly in the
form of rain and sleet but temperatures should continue to warm
through the evening hours. Still potential for some stronger
wind gusts tonight so the wind advisory continues.


An MCS continues to push eastward across western PA and western
NY. The anvil with this complex is producing some lightning and
very light rain out ahead of the convective line. Have added a
chance for thunder across the western Southern Tier and the
Finger Lakes region for this afternoon and evening. Cloud bases
are quite high due to the low level dry air in place and there
is some potential that portions of the western Southern Tier and
into the Finger Lakes region may see some dry lightning strikes
out of this anvil. Otherwise, looking at very light rain with
some cracks of thunder possible this afternoon and evening.

Also, out ahead of this approaching warm front tonight, a very
strong low level jet will punch into the region. Some of these
winds will mix down to the surface this evening through tonight
with the strongest gusts expected across the Finger Lakes
Region. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Steuben, Yates,
Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, S. Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison
counties from 5 PM today through 6 AM early Thursday morning.

As precipitation pushes into northern areas of our CWA and into
the Catskills, there may be a few hours of wintry mix due to wet
bulbing, as dew points remain 10s to low 20s this afternoon and
evening. Very light snow accumulations will be possible before
temperatures warm above freezing later tonight with warm air
advection.

Temperatures will rise overnight as the strong mid level warm
front moves in from the west. Another short wave will come
across the area tomorrow morning and there should be enough
elevated instability for embedded thunder with showers through
the morning hours. After a round of showers in the morning,
things will dry out, but isolated to scattered showers may
still pop up in the afternoon as a cold front approaches later
in the day.

Skies look to remain mostly cloudy, but temperatures a few
breaks of sun and warm southerly flow will send temperatures
surging into the upper 60s and 70s across the Central NY and
Northeast PA regions. Surface dew points rise into the mid-50s
to lower 60s so it will even feel slightly humid out there.

Tomorrow night will also remain quite warm, with lows generally
in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM Update...

After the passage of a frontal boundary, a building high
pressure system off to the north will keep things seasonable on
Friday in the low to upper 50s. As the front exits the area
southward during the day Friday, lingering rain showers may
stick around for areas in NE PA and the Southern Tier until
Friday afternoon. The next system approaches from the southwest
Saturday. A warm front pushes through Saturday morning, bringing
moderate to heavy rainfall through the day. Current guidance
shows precipitable water values between 1 to 1.5 inches, with a
forecasted rainfall total between half an inch to up to an inch
of rainfall across the area. There will be a short lull with
intensity of rainfall as the main low center passes over the
area Saturday evening, but as the cold front associated with
this system sneaks up into the area, moderate rainfall intensity
continues heading into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
325 PM Update...

The long term period is relatively wet and slightly colder than
normal. An overhead upper-level trough develops over the area
through the weekend and into early next week, with multiple
shortwaves bringing precipitation is likely. Temperatures take a
cooling trend going into early next week as well, and there may
be some mixed rain and snow showers mainly during the overnight
hours as temperatures dip, but could happen in the daytime hours
for the early work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly dry conditions will prevail over the next 3-4 hours as
showers are expected to move back in from the west after 10Z.
However, ceilings are expected to remain MVFR/fuel-alt during
this time. Despite a downsloping SE flow at AVP, ceilings have
been gradually falling, and there this the potential for IFR
cigs from prior to daybreak through the morning hours before
winds become more south-southwesterly, but confidence is low, so
this will continue to be monitored.

As showers move in, the rain can be heavy at times to lead to
IFR visby at most terminals for a time. There is also the
potential for thunder as well. Plenty of lightning is currently
over the eastern Great Lakes, but there is uncertainty if they
will survive moving into our area due to a lack of instability,
so thunder was not included in this TAF set.

South-southwesterly LLWS will be in place at all terminals which
is expected to ease by 15-16Z.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restriction.

Tuesday into Wednesday...Restrictions from snow showers possible
(Medium Confidence).

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ015>018-
     022-023-025-036-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG/DK