Mount Lebanon, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS61 KPBZ 160617
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
217 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Laurel Highlands,
and the higher terrain areas of Preston and Tucker counties in
WV this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Snow amounts have
also increased some through the remainder of the area
tonight/Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Strong cold front with gusty wind this morning/early afternoon

2) Rain changes to snow later this afternoon/evening. Much
colder with snow showers Tuesday. Winter Weather Advisory for
the higher terrain.

3) Milder conditions later this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong cold front across western Ohio will continue to
continue to  rack east, reaching eastern Ohio later this
morning, and western PA/northern WV late this morning/early
afternoon. A line of convection to our west should continue to
diminish in intensity as it outruns the more favorable CAPE to
our west. The latest satellite trends show warming cloud tops,
supporting this trend. A strong low level jet remains in place,
and some wind gusts around 50 mph are possible as this line and
cold front cross the region. A portion of the area remains
under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, mainly due to strong
wind gusts. Unless enhanced convection develops, believe the
current Wind Advisory highlights this potential.

The line is expected to intensify again with diurnal
instability as it reaches central PA later this morning and
afternoon. Post frontal wind will remain gusty through Tuesday,
but current probabilities and BUFKIT momentum transfer
procedures indicate they should be sub advisory (outside of
eastern Tucker county WV) as the strongest portion of the low
level jet exits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Critical thicknesses and model soundings indicate rain will mix
with and change to snow from W-E after FROPA, as 850mb
temperatures drop from +12 deg C this morning, to -9 deg C by
this evening. A secondary wave tracking NE through the upper
level flow will also bring an enhancement to the snow,
especially later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will
likely be too warm for significant accumulation, especially on
roads, though some accumulation is possible by this evening.

Additional snow showers are expected this evening into Tuesday
as an upper level trough crosses the region, and terrain/lake
enhancement occurs in wrly flow. Soundings indicate favorable
moisture and lapse rates in the dendritic growth zone for
accumulating snowfall, especially in the ridges. Probabilities
for at least an inch of snow reach 50 percent or greater across
far eastern Ohio , northern WV, and wrn PA. Probabilities for
at least two inches are highest north of I-80 and in the ridges.
Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the ridges, where wrly
upslope flow should result in 2-4 inches of snow, with up to 5-6
inches across eastern Tucker county.

Snow showers should begin to taper off later Tuesday
afternoon/Tuesday evening as surface high pressure begins to
build across the region. Much colder temperatures are also
expected through the period, with highs generally only 25 to 30
deg on Tuesday.

Key Message 3...

While the area is expected to remain under NW flow aloft,
gradually rising 500 mb heights should result in a gradual
warming trend through the end of the week. Individual shortwave
embedded in the flow will bring periodic, mainly rain, chances
to the region from mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR Stratus is in place at DUJ with southeast flow ahead of
approaching cold front, and it is lurking just east of FKL.
Expect VFR elsewhere until front passes in 10-15z time frame
with mainly MVFR conditions with light rain. Strong flow on area
wind profiles has 50-55 knots just 1-2K off the surface so
expect LLWS for the next 6-12 hours until frontal passage.

Winds briefly gusting to 35-45 knots expected in the 12-15z
period as front pushes through but then should settle around 30
knots for the remainder of the day and into tonight as they turn
from southwest to west.

Although rain may end for a few hours later this morning into
this afternoon, expect rapidly falling temperatures and a period
of IFR snow starting roughly 19-22z for most ports with possible
exception being ZZV. This precipitation may start as a mix of
rain/snow before quickly going over to snow. Warm ground may
result in wet runways and perhaps slushy accumulations until
sunset.

Cold and brisk conditions tonight and Tuesday with snow showers
are expected. Mainly VFR conditions outside of snow showers, but
certainly could be IFR with upslope snows in the ridges and
perhaps some lake effect near the FKL and DUJ airports.

Outlook...Dry and mainly VFR weather is expected Wednesday.
A weakening disturbance will likely weaken upstream in the Ohio
Valley with clouds but the snow with the system will struggle to
make it into upper Ohio River valley Wednesday night. Light
precipitation changes and perhaps restrictions are possible
Thursday and Friday but precipitation would likely fall as rain
if it does occur.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for PAZ074-076.
OH...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004-012-
     021-509>513.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for WVZ512>514.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...Craven