Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS61 KCTP 230838
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
438 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Significant and dangerous heat wave continues through
  Wednesday with major to extreme heat risk for all of central
  Pennsylvania.
* Clear skies for the next couple of nights with little relief
  from the daytime heat.
* Increasingly unsettled mid-to-late week with daily chances for
  soaking downpours and thunderstorms as heat slowly breaks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies and light winds have allowed for valley fog to form
across the northern half of Central PA this morning. Temperatures
are in the 70s across much of the region and will likely only
fall a couple of degrees from their current values by sunrise.

Hot and humid conditions remain the focus for today, with
temperatures expected to climb into the 90s this afternoon.
Dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will lead to heat index values
exceeding 105 degrees for the Susquehanna Valley, and approaching
or exceeding 100 degrees farther to the north and west. Heat
Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect. It is
important for those with heightened susceptibility to heat to
take action and limit time outdoors, wear light clothing, and
have plenty of water on hand.

Stagnant air, coupled with the aforementioned hot temperatures,
across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and portions of the Laurel
Highlands will lead to development of surface ozone, resulting
in poor air quality. The PA DEP has issued a Code Orange Air
Quality Alert Day (see AQACTP) for the typical LSV zones
(Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, Lancaster, and York counties)
along with Blair and Cambria counties for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions continue into the middle of the week,
though rain chances will begin to increase. A slow moving cold
front associated with a low pressure system tracking north of
the upper level ridge will approach from the north Tuesday
afternoon and may cause a few thunderstorms to develop. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty in regard to coverage of storms as
the large scale forcing is very weak, but SPC has included a
marginal risk of severe weather for areas north of I-80 where
weak shear will overlap with modest instability in the 1000-2000
J/kg range.

The better chance for thunderstorms will come on Wednesday as
the front enters Pennsylvania. The environment appears very
similar to Tuesday with modest instability and weak shear, but a
few storms capable of producing strong wind gusts appear
possible. Showers and thunderstorms will help to keep
temperatures a few degrees lower than previous days, especially
over the northern and western mountains. Highs may only be in
the mid 80s with heat index values generally less than 95
degrees. This may allow for the Heat Advisories to end earlier
for those zones compared to areas farther east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Evening Update: Little change with respect to the evening
update, as the unsettled pattern continues into the first half
of the weekend with slightly lower chances for precipitation
coming on Sunday.

Previous Discussion: Issued 4:13 PM EDT Sunday, June 22, 2025:
Increasing low-level moisture under northwesterly flow begins
later on into Wednesday. NBM PoPs increases into the 30-60 pct
range Thu afternoon as a slow moving cold front approaches
southern New York State and stability begins to erode, with
increased chances coming on Friday with ample lift and low-level
moisture over central Pennsylvania. Predictability further out
into Friday and Saturday remains low with a decent spread in
model guidance, thus have leaned on NBM PoPs in this timeframe,
with highest chances in the afternoon/evening hours. Repeated
bouts of heavy rainfall during the middle and end of the week
may result in flooding concerns, particularly if the steering
flow lines up parallel with thermal boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some valley fog is evident on satellite early this morning and
could bring restrictions to BFD through daybreak, but the
likelihood remains low enough to exclude it from the TAF.

Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail through
Tuesday. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm
Tuesday afternoon, but any restrictions would be brief.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through midweek with high
density altitude expected.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR. Hot. Isolated PM storms.

Wed...Mainly VFR with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA,
especially north.

Thu-Fri...Increasing impacts from SHRA/TSRA. Less hot.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a heat wave starting on Sunday and lasting into the middle
of next week, some locations may reach or exceed the daily
record hi/max and hi/min temperatures. Record temperatures are
most likely on Monday morning through Wednesday morning (to
include high and low temperatures records).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>026-033>035-037-041-042-045.
Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for PAZ024-025-057-059-063-065-066.
Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ027-028-046-
049>053-058.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
PAZ027-028-046-049>053-058.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for PAZ027-028-046-049>053-058.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ036-056-
057-059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...Bauco
SHORT TERM...Bauco/NPB
LONG TERM...Colbert/NPB
AVIATION...Banghoff
CLIMATE...Banghoff