Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

671
FXUS61 KCTP 230344
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1044 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Winter Weather Advisory replaces Winter Storm Warning for
  Bedford, Blair, and Clearfield Counties as storm total snow
  forecast ticks down areawide

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the western edge
of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm impacts
central PA.

2) Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout the coming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the
western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm
impacts central PA.

Rain turned to snow across the lower Susq valley around 5 PM.
Since sunset, accumulation rates have been near 0.5"/hr in
some of the snow bands across portions of the Lower Susq Valley
and farther north towards Schuylkill Co. A secondary band in
central PA, located within an inverted trough, has been
producing snowfall at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr.

Expect similar intensities through about 2-3 AM as easterly
isentropic ascent at midlevels is maximized. Still a medium
chance (40-70 pct) that 1"/hr rates push into far eastern
Lancaster County between midnight tonight and sunrise on Monday,
but by and large the heaviest snow bands will miss our CWA to
the east. Storm total snow (which includes snow that fell and
subsequently melted this AM) is expected to range from 4-8" from
Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern York
County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast
Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County.
Totals of 3-8" still expected in the higher terrain of the
central ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south
oriented snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at
lower elevations and on paved surfaces. Much of the accumulation
is over by sunrise Monday, with lighter snow continuing through
the morning in spots.

A third area of higher snowfall is expected in the Laurel
Highlands where northwest flow on the back side of the coastal
low will support a prolonged period of upslope snow into early
Tuesday morning. Total snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches are
expected along the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties.

Wind gusts increase to 30 to 40 mph overnight, leading to
blowing and drifting snow, particularly in Lancaster County.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout
the coming week.

A clipper system tracking to our north Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring light to moderate snow to parts of the
region. An initial wave of snow is likely as warm advection
overspreads the area with additional snow showers and
potentially a few snow squalls possible along the cold front as
it moves through during the afternoon.

Most model guidance shows a stronger low pressure system moving
through the region Thursday night and Friday, but details remain
uncertain. Rain or a mix of rain and snow would be favored for
much of Central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the system off the coast continues to strengthen we will see
continued snowfall across much of central PA throughout the
night. Widespread low MVFR to IFR due to visibility reductions
are being observed over much of the commonwealth as bands of
periodic heavy snow impact portions of the central mountains and
far southeast PA. Snow will be increasing in intensity most over
LNS and MDT throughout the late evening and early morning hours
as a deep frontogenetic band sets up over our eastern counties.

A steady increase in wind/gusts from the NNE to NNW has been
noted already tonight and winds will continue to increase into
Monday leading to frequent blowing and drifting of the snow and
reduced vsbys. A mention of blowing snow has been included at
all sites in southern PA. Little in the way of improvements is
expected until the end of the 00Z TAF package. Most airfields
should see rising ceilings and visibilities by 18Z Monday, but
BFD and JST may continue to see snow later into the afternoon
with upslope flow.

Outlook...

Mon...Widespread IFR restrictions in snow. Gusty winds late
Monday.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Thu...Scattered rain and snow showers, restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ005-006-
010-011-017-025-034-037-041-046-051>053.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-035-036-042-045-049-050-056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty/Bowen