Lower Makefield, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

996
FXUS61 KPHI 221930
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
230 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore tonight, then a clipper system
will impact the region early Tuesday with a warm front lifting
north. A cold front will push offshore Tuesday night, followed
by weak high pressure building on Wednesday. Another weak
clipper may impact the area with light precipitation on
Christmas Day, then a stronger system looks to impact the region
on Friday. Unsettled weather may persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Current analysis places cold high pressure just south of our
region over the southern Chesapeake and Delmarva. Meanwhile, a
clipper system is pushing southeast across the Canadian
prairies, heading towards the Great Lakes tonight and towards
Montreal on Tuesday. While the tap isn`t great, there is just
enough of a feed off the Gulf ahead of the system to bring our
region a bit of wintry weather as it passes.

For this evening, clouds will increase, but temps should manage
to drop below freezing beforehand in just about the whole
region, save possibly the immediate coast and warmest urban
centers. Clouds should prevent temps from dropping much below
freezing, with most areas ending up in the mid-upper 20s,
possibly even starting to rebound overnight as the clouds
thicken and wind starts shifting more southerly. However, warm
advection aloft will beat the surface warming for much of the
region, resulting in the outbreak of precipitation across
northern and central areas before dawn and across the south
after daybreak. For northern areas, this will be mostly a wintry
system, with snow late tonight and tomorrow morning
transitioning to either a little freezing rain/drizzle or just
ending as mist towards midday/early afternoon. Further south,
from Philly southward, any snow early likely shifts to rain
before ending. With more marginal temps and a briefer period of
snow, accumulations near and south of Philly should be minimal
if any. However, near and especially north of I-78, an inch or
two of snow is more likely, with up to 3 or even perhaps 4
inches north of I-80. Areas north of I-80 also have a better
shot of getting that little glaze of ice at the end. Based on
this, have opted to issue winter weather advisories mainly near
and north of I-80 for tonight/Tuesday. The trend has been a
little wetter/snowier today, so if future guidance continues the
trend, its possible this may need a last-minute extension
further south, particularly for Morris County, but not feeling
the confidence here just yet. In any case, anyone planning to
commute or otherwise travel Tuesday morning near and especially
north of Philly should be prepared for slippery travel, and
delay until afternoon if possible. Temps will try to warm after
precip tapers off during the afternoon, with temps pushing into
the low 40s near Philly, but may struggle to reach freezing in
the Poconos. By contrast, southern Delaware may top 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of our system, we trend drier Tuesday night. A cold
front will move offshore early which will usher in colder air as our
winds turn more out of the west to northwest. Winds will increase
Tuesday night with gusts for most between 20-30 mph and upwards of
40 mph in the Poconos. Low temperatures are mostly in the mid to
upper 30s south of I-78, and close to 30 degrees north of there. So
any icy roads from refreezing snow melt should be confined to
untreated roads north of I-78.

A weak high pressure system will build into the area from the Great
Lakes region Christmas Eve and center itself over the area Christmas
Eve night into Christmas morning. We look to stay out of the strong
cold air advection this time around, so temperatures should remain
close to normal for late December. However, it`ll be a bit breezy
during the day with NW winds gusting 25-30 mph for many with upwards
of around 40 mph for the Poconos. These winds become light to calm
overnight as the high pressure system moves overhead. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 40s on Christmas Eve, and lows
mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s for Santa during Christmas Eve
night. A mostly sunny sky for Christmas Eve, then increasing clouds
overnight.

Christmas Day should be a decent day overall with no significant
weather, but a weak clipper system passing through could bring some
brief light rain or sprinkles (flurries possible up north) in the
morning. PoPs remain around 20-30%. Otherwise, it`ll be mostly
cloudy to overcast with seasonable temperatures (highs in the upper
30s and 40s). Christmas night will remain cloudy with lows mainly in
the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high.
Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern
Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and
toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring
widespread precipitation to our area. The more recent trends
over the last few runs from guidance has resulted in significant
changes to the forecast. The main reason is a much stronger
high that suppresses a weaker low. This trend keeps much of our
area in a setup for colder air to remain in place thanks to the
stronger high to the north. A more suppressed and southern track
of this low keeps widespread precipitation for the area but
also prevents a lot of the warm air advection from getting into
the region. The updated forecast now has highs on Friday in the
mid to upper 30s for the I- 95 corridor and west with mid to
upper 20s in the Poconos. Areas south and east of the I-95
corridor have highs in the low to mid 40s. Wintry precipitation
is now the result for much of the area for at least part of the
timeframe from daybreak Friday into Saturday. Mixed
precipitation may make it as far south as parts of Delmarva.
Warm air looks to gradually filter in through this event which
would cause a changeover to rain. Right now, the best potential
for this to be a mainly rain event looks to be in parts of
Delmarva and southern New Jersey.

There is a large amount of uncertainty with the forecast for Friday
into Saturday and trends will need to be monitored. Uncertainty
remains through the weekend but there are indications that the
forecast stays unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR expected. Increasing high clouds. West to
southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. High confid.

Tonight...VFR early with light/variable winds, then snow moves
in from the NW after 6Z. Cigs likely drop towards MVFR and VSBY
may drop to IFR by dawn at ABE/RDG/TTN. For PNE/PHL and south,
less odds of restrictions. Low confidence.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR much of the day with snow transitioning to
rain and then ending. Low confidence on details regarding how
rapidly precip finally reaches the more southerly terminals and
also on how quickly snow transitions to rain before ending.
However, MVFR should predominate by sunset. Low-moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR. Gusty NW winds
Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions likely in low clouds
and potential for rain/snow. Gusty winds possible. Very low
confidence forecast for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory through tonight, but south to southwest
winds expected to reach marginal SCA levels over the ocean zones
on Tuesday. Thus, issued for those zones only.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory
conditions look probable with wind gusts increasing to 25-30
kts with seas near 3-5 feet possible.

Thursday...No marine hazards expected. A chance of light rain
or sprinkles.

Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
probable. Precipitation likely restricting visibility.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     NJZ001.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Guzzo/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM