Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS61 KBGM 140526
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
126 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a few days of dry weather, showers return tonight. The pattern
becomes more active through at least midweek of next week with
chances for showers each day. Temperatures will be cooler this
weekend but then trend warmer early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...

Rain showers have developed across the Southern Tier and the
Mohawk Valley ahead of the broad swath of light to moderate
showers that are expected to move into the area tonight. These
showers were not previously expected to develop so updated PoPs
to have a little better representation on what is occurring.
The 18z and 00z model runs continue to show much of the area
covered in rain showers tonight. The question is will the
showers have wide coverage across the region, or have 2 areas of
consistent showers the Twin Tiers and northern Finger Lakes
into the Mohawk Valley, with larger gaps in coverage across CNY.
PoPs through the overnight hours were updated based on the
latest guidance, which brought increased chances over the Twin
Tiers and Mohawk Valley.


300 PM Update...

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible through the late
evening hours as a weak wave rides along the zonal flow. While weak,
there will be enough instability and shear to support isolated
thunderstorms. The best chances will be from the Southern Tier and
areas southward. Weak low pressure will pass just to the south
tonight and support widespread showers. High pressure to the north
will limit on how far north showers spread, but just how far north
is uncertain. Most short range guidance keep the showers just south
of the NYS Thruway corridor, though some isolated showers along that
area would not be surprising. Temperatures tonight will fall into
the 50s.

Showers continue into Saturday morning as the aforementioned low
continues to drift east. As the low moves out to sea, conditions
will dry out from north to south during the afternoon and evening
hours. Instability is lacking tomorrow, so thunderstorms are not
expected. High temperatures will vary some over the region due to
the showers or lack there of. Over NEPA and the Catskills,
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. From the Southern Tier
and areas northward, temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low
70s. Isolated to scattered showers are once again possible
overnight, with another low situated over the Midwest. Temperatures
will fall into the 50s Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update:

East-southeast winds will keep conditions cool on Sunday with
scattered showers around. Very little to no instability will
likely prevent the development of any thunderstorms.
Temperatures will below normal with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Then it will remain dreary Sunday night with a few
showers or patchy drizzle around and lows in the 50s.

Much of the same is expected on Monday with slightly warmer
conditions as there may be occasional breaks of sun. While it
will not be a washout, there will be some isolated to scattered
showers around. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Conditions then dry out Monday night with weak high
pressure building in. Some lingering low level moisture will
likely keep clouds around. Lows Monday night are expected to be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 PM Update:

The weather pattern becomes more summer-like Tuesday through
Thursday with some weak ridging in place. This will allow
temperatures to warm-up each day with widespread 80s for highs
expected by Wednesday and Thursday. Subtle shortwaves combined
with diurnal heating will bring a chance of showers and some
thunderstorms each day, which could impact high temperatures if
they become widespread enough.

By late Thursday or Thursday night, a cold front will move
through the region, which will bring more widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. This will also bring somewhat cooler
conditions by Friday (highs in the mid 70s to near 80), along
with an additional chance for some showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Rain showers expected through at least the morning hours with
associated restrictions impacting all terminals. IFR and lower
conditions are expected at ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP today. Confidence is
high for IFR at ELM, ITH and BGM with low ceilings as the
widespread rain arrives. AVP should see IFR later in the
this morning or early afternoon.

SYR and RME are tricky as guidance differs as to how far north
the rain showers make early this morning. Seems like there will
be at least a few showers that allow for a chance of MVFR
conditions.

Later in the day, there is a chance that ceiling rise above IFR
at ELM, ITH, AVP and BGM, but confidence is low at this time, so
kept forecast just above at IFR at ELM and BGM and kept the IFR
through the day at ITH and AVP.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPK