Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KBGM 021053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning milder today, with filtered morning sunshine giving way
to afternoon clouds and rain showers. Temperatures will then
see a significant warm up on Thursday, with highs reaching into
the 70s, along with morning rain showers. Generally dry and
seasonable weather returns on Friday, before another slow
moving frontal system arrives with periods of rain expected
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 AM Update

Starting off rather cold this morning, with temperatures in the
lower 20s to around 30 out there this morning. Only very minor
adjustments to the forecast with this update, mainly focused on
cloud cover and slowing down the arrival of the rain/precipitation
this afternoon. No changes made to the expected winds this
evening and tonight, wind advisories or the expectation for some
brief wintry mix over northern Oneida and the Catskills. Rest
of the forecast remains on track.

408 AM Update

Main concerns in the near term period is the potential for light
wintry mix/snow this evening into tonight over N. Oneida county
and the higher Catskills. Also strong southerly winds are
expected this evening into tonight. Wind advisories have been
issued for Steuben, Yates, Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, S.
Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison counties from 5 PM today through 6
AM early Thursday morning.

High clouds this morning, with some filtered sunshine expected.
The clouds lower and thicken through the day as the next warm
frontal wave approaches this afternoon. Showers will quickly
develop and race west to east across the forecast area between
about 4-7 PM this afternoon/evening. Highs will reach into the
40s and lower 50s this afternoon before the precipitation starts.

Low dew points in the 10s to low 20s this afternoon will allow
for substantial evaporational and wet bulb cooling as the
precipitation moves in. Soundings suggest there will be some mix
with snow and sleet across northern Oneida county, where up to
an inch of snow accumulation will be possible this evening into
tonight. There could also be some mix with sleet pellets and
isolated pockets of freezing rain over the highest elevations of
the western Catskills...not enough coverage or certainty to
consider any winter weather advisory headlines at this time.

Temperatures gradually rise overnight as the strong mid level
warm front moves in from the west. 850 mb temperatures surge,
reaching +10C to +15C before daybreak Thursday. Forecast
soundings from the 00z NAM suggest a strong low level inversion
remains in place with surface temperatures between the upper 30s
to around 50 by daybreak Thursday. Southerly winds will become
breezy to locally strong this evening and tonight, as the low
level jet increases between 70-75kts at or just below the 850
mb level. Surface winds could easily gusts between 40-50 mph
across the Finger Lakes and other exposed, higher elevations
locations of CNY...especially the hills south of Syracuse and
Utica. The strongest winds are expected from about 7PM Wednesday
to 7 AM Thursday. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms
tonight over Central NY along and just south of the warm front
as elevated CAPE increases above the low level inversion.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue into Thursday
morning along a prefrontal trough. Exact timing is uncertain,
but most guidance is indicating conditons mainly drying out,
except for a few isolated to scattered showers by Thursday
afternoon. Skies look to remain mostly cloudy, but temperatures
are forecast to surge into the upper 60s and 70s across the
Central NY and Northeast PA regions. Surface dew points rise
into the mid-50s to lower 60s so it will even feel slightly
humid out there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM Update...

As a cold front presses to the south and east Thursday night,
it may temporarily get hung up across or just south of NE PA, so
a chance for showers will persist mainly from the NY/PA border
on south. However, if the front can push farther south like the
operational GFS, then the entire area would dry out overnight,
but this model looks to be the outlier compared to the Euro,
Canadian and NAM along with the GFS, Euro and Canadian
ensembles. Lows Thursday night will be mainly in the 40s with
portions of the Wyoming and Delaware River Valleys in NE PA
closer to 50 degrees. High pressure over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest will shift east over the area Friday leading to a
brief period of dry weather and a mix of sun and clouds. While
it won`t be as warm as Thursday, high temperatures Friday will
still be near or above average ranging from the lower 50s and
mid 50s to the north to the upper 50s and lower 60s from the
Southern Tier on south.

Friday night into Saturday will be the start of an unsettled
period for the region. A strong upper trough is expected over
the Western U.S. while a strong ridge of high pressure is
centered off the Southeast Coast Friday night into Saturday. In
between these two features, multiple waves of low pressure will
be channeled from southwest to northeast toward our region,
tapping into plenty of Atlantic and Gulf moisture feeding north
around the upper ridge. The first wave is expected to spread
widespread showers across the area later Friday night into
Saturday. Rainfall can be heavy at times Saturday as PWAT values
rise to around 1.25-1.50." Highs Saturday range from the upper
40s and low 50s east of I-81 to the mid and upper 50s west of
the interstate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM Update...

As the upper trough slowly starts to push eastward Sunday into
Sunday night, a couple of more waves of low pressure will stream
northeastward into the region. These moisture-rich features are
expected to keep widespread showers around through the end of
the weekend with bouts of heavier rainfall at times. Rainfall
totals Saturday through Sunday night look to be a general 1 to 2
inches across much of the region with lesser amounts possible
toward the Poconos and southern Catskills depending on the
tracks of these features and the placement of the heaviest
rainfall. This is reflected by the WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday as well, as a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding within 25 miles of a point is
highlighted across the CWA except for the Poconos and southern
Catskills at this time.

A wide range in temperatures is expected Sunday with highs in
the lower to mid 50s across the Finger Lakes region to the
Mohawk Valley while temperatures climb well into the 60s across
NE PA and the southern Catskills. The Wyoming and Delaware River
Valleys can even reach the lower 70s.

The upper trough is expected to reach the eastern seaboard
Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. A stronger shortwave
trough and surface cold front is expected to drop down from the
north into the Upper Midwest Monday and swing through the Great
Lakes and into region Monday night into Tuesday. Much cooler air
is expected to funnel in from the northwest as well with this
northern feature as 850mb temperatures are projected to drop as
low as -12 to -15C Tuesday. As a result, scattered rain and
even snow showers look to be around through the early part of
next week. High temperatures by Tuesday are expected to be no
better than the 30s and 40s and overnight lows Monday and
Tuesday nights are expected to be mainly in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
650 AM Update

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through about 23z this
evening. Rain showers then quickly move in from the west along
a warm front between 22-24z, bringing MVFR conditions for a few
hours to all of our taf sites in the 23z to 03z timeframe. SYR
could then improve back to VFR for a few hours overnight, before
going back to MVFR to end the taf period. The rest of our taf
sites look to remain MVFR and even MVFR Fuel Alt at AVP, BGM and
AVP between 06-09z Thursday. There is a chance for CIGs to then
lower to IFR between about 09-12z Thursday morning, especially
at BGM and AVP as another round of rain moves overhead.

The other concern will be LLWS developing between 00-06z
Thursday and continuing through the morning hours for all taf
sites with south winds 40-50kts at 2k ft AGL. Southerly surface
winds also increase later this afternoon and evening, gusting
between 20-35 kts into the overnight period.

Outlook...

Thursday...Morning restrictions likely, should eventually
become mainly VFR by afternoon for most locations; except AVP
which sees MVFR or lower CIGs linger through most of the day.

Friday...Mainly VFR expected.

Saturday and Sunday...Periods of rain likely with associated
restriction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This morning and early afternoon will see low RH values in the
25-35% range for several hours before moisture increases late in
the day or early evening. South winds increase in the afternoon
between 10-20 mph with some higher gusts, especially in the mid
to late afternoon. Also, temperatures will be warming up into
the lower 50s for the lower elevations and valleys. There should
be a 4 to 5 hour window where RH and winds get to near critical
thresholds from about 1200 to 1600/1700 EDT. This will be
dependent on incoming moisture in the afternoon and this window
may increase/decrease depending on the exact timing of incoming
moisture advection. At this time, there is not enough confidence
for an SPS for the NY Leather Stocking Fire Zone. Also, with
rainfall likely moving into the region tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night, if any fires were to start, it is likely that
the conditions in the evening will quickly suppress any activity.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for NYZ015>018-022-023-025-036-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MJM
FIRE WEATHER...