Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

164
FXUS61 KBGM 140553
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1253 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes
east of the region. Our western forecast area will have low
chance for light rain showers late Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night. High pressure then builds back into the region
for Friday and persists through much of this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
640 PM Update...

Generally clear skies across Central NY and NE PA with the
current high pressure centered over the region. Some high clouds
moving in from the west overnight may inhibit the full effects
of radiational cooling, mainly for those areas west of I-81,
with temperatures dropping to the mid 20s. Areas mainly east of
I-81 will see temperatures drop into the low 20s, with high 10s
possible in the Catskills. Otherwise, forecast remains on
track.


245 PM Update

Canadian high pressure is centered over the region this
afternoon with sunny skies, but cool temperatures. Most of the
area will remain mostly clear tonight and good radiational
cooling will send temperatures down into the upper teens and low
20s once again. High clouds arrive toward or after midnight
across the western half of NY and this should prevent temperatures
from falling further in those areas, so lows will be possibly 5
to 10 degrees warmer across our western forecast counties.

Tomorrow will remain mostly dry with an increase of mid to upper
level clouds from the west. There should be some filtered
sunshine at times, especially east of I-81. Low pressure will
track south of the area, but transfer it`s energy to the coast
and become a Miller B type system. This will take the bulk of
the forcing out of play over our forecast area and not expecting
much in the way of precipitation due to the stout dry airmass in
place. Any chance for rain or snow showers will likely remain
west of the I81 corridor. Further east, it looks to stay mainly
dry for Syracuse, Binghamton, Scranton, Utica, Oneonta and
surrounding locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

An upper level ridge and associated surface high will slowly
build into the region from the west Friday and Saturday. Clouds
lingering from the departing trough should clear by Friday
afternoon, bringing mostly clear skies and dry conditions through
Saturday night. Temperatures will be seasonable Friday and
Saturday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
310 PM Update...

Ridging remains the dominant weather feature Sunday, with weak
return flow pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 50s as
the ridge axis slides east of the region. There is the potential
for a weak shortwave to move into the area from Canada and ride
the northern edge of the ridge, bring rain showers to the area
Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance has been very
inconsistent with this shortwave over the past few runs so
confidence in rainfall timing and placement is low. Reduced
PoPs from the NBM in this update given the latest guidance from
GFS/EURO continues to show inconsistencies in the shortwave
placement and development. The moisture available with this
system is weak as we will see mostly WNW winds and will not have
access to Gulf moisture. NW winds behind the shortwave should
pick up Monday, which would help keep fire weather concerns in
the forefront, especially if we see minimal rainfall and fuels
remain dry.

By mid week, we should see a overall pattern change as a ridge
amplifies in the west and a deep trough develops over the
central US. Many of the details are unclear, but we could see
the first real wintry weather of the year later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through 6Z tomorrow
night at all terminals. Some precipitation will try to move into
ELM but dry air in place will keep cigs at or just above MVFR
right around 6Z tomorrow night..


Outlook...

Thursday night...MVFR restrictions possible for our western
terminals, with chances for light rain (ELM/ITH). Moderate
confidence.

Friday...Lower confidence forecast. Some lingering restrictions
are possible, mainly at our western terminals; then becoming VFR
later in the day or evening areawide.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Moderate to high
confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/BTL