Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KCLE 221137
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
637 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to expand across the area today as the
system drifts toward the East Coast. A low pressure system will
enter the Great Lakes region for Monday and extend a weak cold front
across the area on Monday night. This front will lift back north as
a warm front on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow continues to be very slow to diminish across
Northeast Ohio with a very narrow, transient band of snow that is
slowly moving west across Lake and Geauga Counties. Believe that
this band is the last gasp for this event with a period of an inch
or so of snow still possible through daybreak. Otherwise, snow
across the region is light and scattered with minimal accumulations.
Will allow for the Winter Weather Advisories to expire with the
forecast package this morning. Slick road conditions remain possible
across Northeast Ohio with light snow showers and cold surface
temperatures. High pressure will finally build in enough across the
region to back flow this afternoon and south winds should completely
end any lake effect snow in the region. High temperatures today will
remain similar to yesterday with highs generally in the 20s. The
back side of high pressure will allow for warm air to advect into
the region and lows tonight will be slightly less cold with some
lows in the 20s creeping into Northwest Ohio. A low pressure system
will enter the Great Lakes region for Monday and a warm front will
move through the area, bringing temperatures into the 30s. As the
low pressure system approaches the forecast area during the
afternoon and evening hours on Monday, a mix of rain and snow will
enter and have PoPs increasing late in the period. New snow amounts
will be minimal and mainly limited to Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave disturbance will move east through the Great
Lakes Monday night, ushering in another opportunity for rain
and snow into Tuesday morning. There is the potential for a quick 1
to 2 inches of wet snow to accumulate across portions of Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Rain and/or a rain/snow mix appears more likely elsewhere as warm
air will begin to arrive behind this system by Tuesday afternoon,
with temperatures increasing to above freezing.

An upper-level ridging regime will begin to take form by late
Tuesday across the Central and Eastern CONUS which should favor a
mostly dry forecast through Wednesday night. The only caveat is that
there will be an embedded weakening upper-level trough moving east
across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which could kick off scattered
light rain showers, though confidence remains low on coverage.

Temperatures will remain seasonable to slightly above normal, with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The first half of the long term period appears to favor a mostly dry
and quiescent forecast as broad upper-level ridging encompasses much
of the Eastern CONUS through Friday. Surface high pressure across
New England should initially keep any widespread precipitation
chances at bay. Confidence continues to increase on a more active
pattern developing by the weekend as a longwave upper-level trough
sweeps east across the central CONUS Friday into Saturday.

Above-average temperatures will dominate the long term period. Highs
in the low to mid-40s on Thursday will increase into the low to
mid-50s by Saturday as warm air advection persists across the
eastern CONUS, aided by the exiting upper-level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aviation conditions this morning are largely controlled by lake
effect clouds and some snow across the region. Clouds have been
persistent off Lake Erie with snow not wanting to end fast
enough with high pressure advancing across the region. Just some
small pockets of MVFR remain across this area, mainly KERI and
KYNG, but the layer is close to lifting above 3 kft, so any MVFR
should be brief over the next hour or two this morning.
Elsewhere, clouds off Lake Michigan have arrived at KTOL and
KFDY and will be around through the morning hours. High
pressure will take more control across the region today and
winds will back to the south and end the lake effect clouds
across the area. Trends will be to VFR and then clearing for the
entire area.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with a rain/snow mix Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. Non-VFR possible again with rain on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected across Lake Erie through
mid-week as winds remain either generally weak or offshore. Elevated
offshore winds near 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are possible
ahead of a system on Monday, though the marginal southerly component
of the winds should largely preclude the need for a Small Craft
Advisory. Will need to monitor if winds can favor a more southwest
component Monday night for any potential Small Craft headlines
across the eastern basin.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kahn