Cranberry, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

525
FXUS61 KBGM 130653
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
253 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected today
before a cold front moves in, bringing occasional showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High pressure
builds back in for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A slow moving cold front will push through the region today. Upper
level forcing will be weak as as supporting trof flattens out
with the best PVA across northern NY and New England. Increasing
moisture and early daytime heating will bring decent
instability, with CAPE increasing to about 1500 J/kg. However,
0-6km bulk shear will be limited below 25 knots.

Although SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms today across the Poconos Region and Southern
Catskills, the weak shear will likely limit organized
convection. An isolated severe cell can`t be ruled out
completely, but at this time it appears that the main concern
with these storms will be torrential downpours.

Weak flow, high warm cloud layer depths and anomalous PWAT
values approaching 2 inches are all good atmospheric
ingredients for locally torrential downpours. WPC has enveloped
the area within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, however,
very dry antecedent conditions are in place and it will take
upwards of 3 inches of rainfall short time frame in order to
trigger significant flash flooding of small streams. Intense
rainfall rates could have more of an impact in urbanized areas,
and localized minor flash flooding could occur.

Behind the front...high pressure with drier air returns into the
weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and
average to cool at night. Highs will likely approach 90 or
higher again for urban areas and in the valleys by Saturday and
Sunday. A little early to be thinking about a heat risk, but
overall the humidity and temperature tandem does not look
critical at this time.

The next system bringing any chance for precipitation again
enters the picture between Sunday and Monday with models showing
subtle differences in timing. EC and GFS models suggest similar
wind shifts on Sunday but it looks like the GFS wants to slow
southward progression out of CNY/NEPA on Monday whereas the EC
has a stronger high and southerly push. Tropical system
approaching the East Coast will potentially begin influencing
the pattern across the eastern seaboard by late Tuesday and the
position of the lingering stationary front just to our south
will become important to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals tonight as high
pressure remains in place.

Showers and storms currently over Lake Erie will continue to
move to the ENE tonight, but are expected to weaken as they
approach our area. A few passing showers will be possible at SYR
and RME later this morning, but restrictions are not expected.

A round of thunderstorms is expected to develop across the area
this afternoon with ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP having the best chance to
see storms from around 18z-23z. TEMPO MVFR visby will be
possible this afternoon at these terminals. IFR visby cannot be
ruled out as some of these storms could produce heavy downpours,
but confidence in the location and timing of the storms is too
low to include IFR in the TAFs. SYR and RME could have a few
storms this afternoon, but most of the activity is currently
progged to be south of the terminals.


Outlook...

Wednesday night...Occasional showers and thunderstorms
associated with a cold front may lead to restrictions. Fog and
IFR conditions may develop at ELM.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/t-storms along
another frontal passage.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
DISCUSSION...MPK/JAB
AVIATION...JTC