Cranberry, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

595
FXUS61 KBGM 230912
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
412 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak mid level disturbance will keep clouds and spotty showers
of rain and snow around through the weekend. Another cold front
and low pressure system then move through the region Tuesday
with another chance of showers. High pressure then slowly
builds into the region by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A low pressure system will head into Atlantic Canada bringing
west to northwest flow into the region. This is an odd
occurrencewhere a slightly warmer airmass is being pulled into
the region given the departed upper level low. This weekend
looks to be most noteworthy for winds as model soundings do
show the potential for some 20-30 mph wind gusts to transfer to
the surface, higher values on Sunday.


Fairly widespread clouds will slow to burn off today and might not
really so given another approaching disturbance. Scattered rain
and snow showers are still lingering this morning. Later today
the new disturbance looks to be just enough of a trigger for
some Lake response off of Lake Ontario as well. Typical
westerly-northwesterly flow near the Thruway should see the most
numerous showers and snow showers. QPF looks rather light under
a quarter of an inch. Temperatures do rise a few degrees into
the 40`s but given the clouds only fall back into the 30`s. As a
result, any snow accumulations look to be rather light under an
inch by Sunday morning.

The northwesterly flow, clouds and spotty showers/ snow showers look
to linger in the morning downstream of Lake Ontario. However, a few
breaks in the clouds may appear later in the day as high pressure
tries to build back into the region. Highs into the 40`s once again.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

Lake effect showers will start to dwindle and dissipate Sunday
evening as high pressure builds into the region from the SW. The
ridge axis will remain just to the west of our CWA, keeping flow
NWerly and cooler air overhead. Temperatures will fall into the
upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

The ridge building into the region will be transient, sliding
eastward through the day on Monday. SW flow returns in the
morning hours, bringing WAA and pushing afternoon temperatures
into the mid to upper 40s across the region.

An upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region late
Monday afternoon into the evening, tilting negatively in the
process. This will generate a surface low Michigan that will
move to the north of our CWA. This puts us in the warm sector of
the low and gives us rain showers Monday night. Temperatures
will be in the mid 30s to low 40s across the region. A cold
front associated with the aforementioned low will move into the
region Tuesday, although timing is still a little uncertain.
Passage of the front will determine when precip associated with
the low changes over to snow. Current thinking is a later
passage, keeping rain across the area through the morning with
showers behind the cold front changing to snow in the afternoon.
Lake effect showers are expected to develop Tuesday evening as
-8C temps at 850mb move into the region. Flow will be mostly
 westerly so CNY could see scattered snow showers from lake
 effect off Lake Erie, while northern Onondaga and Oneida
 counties should see showers develop off Lake Ontario. Overnight
 temps in the Mohawk valley will hover around to just above
 freezing, so precip will be rain or a rain/snow mix. The rest
 of the region should see snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM Update...

Cold air looks to stay entrenched in the region as the trough
exits the region to the east. Westerly flow will remain over the
area mid-week, pulling in cold air from the north central US.
Things get interesting for the Thanksgiving holiday as guidance
is showing another upper level trough moving into the eastern
US. Deterministic guidance has been all over the place in
developing this system run to run so confidence is pretty low
in timing, location, and strength. Ensemble guidance is also
showing a large spread in solutions, placing surface lows from
western TN to Long Island, which makes sense given guidance is
handling the upper trough and its evolution differently;
strengthening it at different times and sometimes tilting it
negatively in favor of a strong surface low, and other times
keeping it flat and pushing the surface low out to sea. The
origin of this trough is the same system that developed the
strong bomb cyclone off the Pacific NW coast. It has been pretty
stationary for the past several days and once it gets moving,
we should have a better idea of how it will develop over our
region and impact travel for the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
General MVFR ceilings with spotty light rain and snow showers.
Potential for fog formation by 10Z at KITH and KBGM with IFR
restrictions that would lift by 16Z. Also northwest wind gusts
over 20 knots possible today as well at all TAF sites.


Outlook...

Tonight...Continued possible restrictions in rain and snow
showers, especially Central NY.

Sunday...Gradual improvement. VFR probable for AVP with MVFR
expected elsewhere. Mixed rain/snow showers far northern areas.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Another approaching low pressure system
could bring possible restrictions.

Wednesday...Lake effect snow and rain showers bring possible
restrictions; especially our NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK/MWG