Weatherford, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS64 KOUN 101059
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

 - Low (30%) chance for storms in western north Texas this
   morning and again tonight.

 - More widespread showers and storms will occur Wednesday and
   likely again on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

June is finally starting to act a little more like June around here,
starting with the weakening MCS that is rolling eastward along the
Llano Estacado early this morning. Consensus has the rainfall
probabilities at about 30% in western north Texas early this
morning, which some cloud-to-ground lightning risk essentially
marking the main risk.

As the MCS decays toward daybreak, its remnant MCV will remain
largely stationary near/just west of our area today. This will lead
to a rather nebulous surface pattern with only weak lee troughing
and light southwest surface winds. In other words, it will be a
pretty classic June day with temperatures warming into the upper
80s/near 90 across much of the area. Rain/storm chances will remain
confined to western north Texas during the day in the more immediate
presence of the MCV.

The pattern won`t change much throughout the early part of the
night. The primary driver of change appears to be the development
and subsequent decay of another MCS in the southern High Plains
tonight. This will serve to amplify the MCV into a full-on cutoff
low. With a mid-latitude jet streak traversing the Northern Plains,
the cutoff low will want to wander northeastward toward it, and this
advance into an environment characterized by high boundary-layer
moisture will lead to the development of showers and weak storms
just before daybreak.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The aforementioned MCV/cutoff low will travel northeastward into our
area during the day on Wednesday. Although surface heating will not
be overly impressive, mid-60s dewpoints and mid-80s temperatures
will suffice to allow 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. Deep-
layer shear will be weak, so storms that develop will likely take on
single/multicell characteristics. This activity will spread
northward from southern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma in the
afternoon, potentially accompanied by an ever-expanding outflow
boundary. Cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the whole CWA,
but especially the folks who experience a stronger/earlier OFB
passage.

Predictability with sub-synoptic-scale features such as cutoff lows
is inherently lower than with larger-scale features. With that said,
the signal seems to be for the cutoff low to open up and lift
northeastward a bit. The net result if this was to occur would be
that afternoon rain/storm chances will migrate a little bit eastward
as well during the day on Thursday.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

There`s a fair bit of uncertainty with how fast the cutoff low takes
its bow and moves on from our area. Just from this evening`s model
guidance alone, the GFS would keep the low across the Ozarks while
the ECMWF shoves it further toward the Mississippi River. The
western fringe of the low will be the eastern fringe of an expansive
subtropical ridge. The further that low gets away from us, the more
the ridge pushes in. And if that ridge pushes in, we`ll finally
start seeing some full-on summer weather - drier, sunnier, hotter.
It`s too early to say which scenario looks likelier, but either way
periodic chances for rain should continue into early next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions to continue today and tonight with periods of
mainly high clouds. A light south to southwest wind today will
back to the southeast tonight. Outside chance of a shower at SPS
toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  67  83  67 /   0  10  40  40
Hobart OK         88  66  82  66 /   0  20  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  87  68  82  68 /  20  30  60  50
Gage OK           88  62  83  63 /   0  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     92  66  87  67 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         89  69  84  69 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30