Shawnee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

056
FXUS64 KOUN 221120
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
520 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 408 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

- Drizzle and fog possible Monday before rain arrives Monday
  evening into Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures for Christmas.

- Another storm system brings shower and thunderstorm chances
  Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Warmer temperatures are expected today. There will be some
increase in clouds to today as moisture at about 6,000 feet AGL
increases over the area as evidenced by the clouds that have
developed from southeast Oklahoma into north Texas.

Winds become onshore along the Texas gulf coast today which will
allow Gulf moisture to start spreading north. Stratus clouds are
expected to develop and spread into the area overnight with this
moisture return. We will also likely see areas of fog develop,
especially west, where the stronger moisture advection occurs
after the temperatures have begun to diurnally cool this evening.
Have maintained the mention of fog in the forecast, and we will be
watching today and tonight for the potential of dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

The moisture return continues and a low overcast with stratus will
be widespread. Synoptic models have been showing areas of QPF
developing on Monday, but with the relatively shallow moisture
initially, this may be more of a signal of drizzle or light rain
during the day. Have kept the mention of drizzle but kept the
chance of measurable rain below 20 percent through the day. But
showers (and perhaps a few thunderstorms) will become more
widespread Monday night as a stronger mid-level trough approaches
and provides more lift. As has been advertised for a while, this
looks to primarily affect central and eastern sections of the
area leaving much of the west dry, although the QPF signal may be
increasing somewhat for northwest Oklahoma. This area of
precipitation continues into Tuesday before moving out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

We will take a day off from the precipitation chances for
Christmas on Wednesday (at least through the daytime) as mid-
level ridging moves over the area between systems. Meanwhile the
next storm system takes shape over the Intermountain West and
Colorado Plateau on Wednesday and starts moving toward the Plains.
The track of this system over the Plains is forecast be the
models over the last couple of days to be somewhere between
Interstate 70 (northern Kansas) and Interstate 20 (north Texas)...
so there is still a bit of uncertainty about the forecast track.
But regardless, there is at least some consistency on the timing
and precipitation chances will increase Thursday or Thursday night
despite the wide range of storm paths. The thermodynamics still
look warm enough for this to be a rain event, but of course we
will be keeping an eye on the trends.

Another amplifying storm system develops on the heels of this
Thursday system and provides some potential of precipitation again
on Friday/Friday night, although this potential is more uncertain
and will depend on that storm path and how much moisture has been
cleared out of the area by the first system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Initial VFR conditions will give way to lowered category by late
Sunday evening/early Monday morning. While daytime hours today will
feature gusty south winds and a few areas of passing mid/high-
clouds, stratus is expected to emerge by this evening. This is
expected first at KSPS/KLAW before expanding northward along the
I-44 corridor.

Another coherent area of low clouds (and fog) is expected across
northwestern into west-central Oklahoma by early Monday morning,
when medium confidence (40-60%) in IFR/LIFR conditions exists.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  48  57  47 /   0   0  10  40
Hobart OK         63  49  63  46 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  66  51  69  48 /   0  10  10  10
Gage OK           62  39  53  38 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     57  42  54  44 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         57  46  61  52 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09