Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS64 KOUN 230552
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1152 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Dry with above/well above average temperatures through the
   week, including some near record or record highs.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A modified Gulf airmass has been creeping northward for the last 24
hours with mid-50s dewpoints now reaching to the north of I-40. Some
mechanical mixing of that shallow moist layer is likely as the LLJ
cranks late tonight. Still, redevelopment of stratus across
southeast Oklahoma is likely. It also looks like we could be looking
at a localized region of fog across north central Oklahoma just to
the east of a surface low pressure.

A record-strength ridge will build in across the Southern Great
Plains today. In the face of this, the surface low will collapse.
We`ll still have some southwesterly component to the surface wind
along and southeast of I-44 on the periphery of a Gulf Coast high.
That will bring the potential for record-breaking highs into
southwest and central Oklahoma and especially southeast Oklahoma
with highs ranging from the 70s to near 80. It will be a little
cooler further to the north where winds will be calmer/have a
northerly component, but the word "cooler" is only relative here.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Don`t get your hopes up about any sort of diminution of the ridge
as we move into Christmas and Christmas Day. 500 mb heights on
both days will still be well into the 585+ dam range. We`ll only
be spared from threatening record high temperatures on the 24th
because the current records are absurdly high to begin with. That
won`t help us on the 25th when we`ll get even warmer. Continued
southwest winds, sunny skies, and nearly-unheard of 700 mb
temperatures will bring our Christmas high temps into the upper
70s to mid 80s.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Instead of an abrupt shift/demise, the ridge will be forced out of
here in phases beginning on Friday. The first phase will be a
transition to a seasonably strong zonal jet across the Plains, which
unfortunately will not bring the heat wave to and end. In fact, with
widespread pressure falls across much of the High Plains, Friday
will likely be the hottest day of the entire week.

Relief, such as it is, begins on Saturday as a cold front moves into
the area. We likely won`t start to feel a little more like December
until Sunday when a secondary surge of northerly winds pushes in,
though. Precipitation chances continue to look meager through the
upcoming week and really into the end of 2025.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 912 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Light south winds will continue overnight and appears at least a
chance for some stratus to develop across mainly southeast into
eastern Oklahoma. This may get close to the I-35 corridor up
through central into north central Oklahoma. Will keep a mention
of MVFR ceilings at PNC/SWO/DUA toward morning, along with some
fog as well. Should dissipate across the north by late morning,
but may linger at DUA through much of the day. South to southwest
winds will increase by late morning across much of the area.
Exception may be across west and northwest where a weak surface
boundary will work into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  52  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         73  43  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  54  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           78  36  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  44  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  60  78  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30