Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

199
FXUS64 KOUN 290702
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
202 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Low chances of thunderstorms across far western Oklahoma during
  the evening hours through mid-week; strong winds possible.

- Increasing heat and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
  toward end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A strong low-level jet has developed over western KS and northwest
OK overnight as a trough approaches the Rockies, and this has led
to breezy south winds with strong wind gusts of 40 mph or higher
for several of our western observation stations earlier this evening
(and prior to the BL decoupling). Some areas could see this recur
after sunrise and as the BL begins to mix, but not anticipating
these gusts to last more than a few hours.

Other than breezy southerly winds today, will see scattered high
clouds stream in from the southwest. With abundant low-level moisture
still present (especially east of I-35), high temperatures will rise
into the low 90`s there and into the mid-90`s across central Oklahoma.
For areas generally west of Hwy 81, peak readings near 100 deg are
possible. Overall, heat index values will be lower today with the
highest values (near 105) expected over portions of north-central
Oklahoma.

Scattered thunderstorms could develop once again this afternoon and
evening near the dryline (west of the 100th meridian) and a few
decaying storms may reach our western counties by late evening with
strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Storm activity may continue until after midnight out west, but this
model solution is an outlier and will have to watch model trends.
Low storm chances return each evening through Wednesday night over
northwest and western Oklahoma, though severe weather is not expected.

Otherwise, hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected with scattered
mid- and high-clouds. Heat index values are expected to be lower than
those seen the past few days.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

High temperatures trend upward Thursday through Saturday as mid-level
heights rise with the expansion of the ridge across the southern two-
thirds of the country. Highs of 100 to 105 degrees are forecast to be
widespread by July 4th with low chances of showers and thunderstorms
returning late Friday and into the weekend. A cold front could move
into northern Oklahoma late Saturday or early Sunday which will dial
down the intensity of the heat just a bit on Sunday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions to continue.

Some high clouds expected overnight with breezy south winds. There
will be llws at most sites given strong llj. Winds will pick up
some Monday morning several terminals seeing gusts at or above
30kts. Just more high clouds expected during the day tomorrow. A
few showers/storms could approach northwest Oklahoma late Monday
afternoon and evening, but chances remain too low to include at
WWR at this time. LLWS will once again develop tomorrow evening
with it developing in the PNC/SWO areas before 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  78  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         99  77  98  75 /   0  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          100  78  97  76 /  10  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     93  79  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         95  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30