Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS64 KOUN 022345
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Severe thunderstorms possible late overnight into Thursday
  morning.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible for the remainder of this
  afternoon in western OK and western north TX.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through late Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Much drier air has overspread much of Oklahoma and western north
Texas, in the wake of a cold front and early morning thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, a large part of western Oklahoma and northern Texas
did not receive much rainfall yesterday or early this morning. With
a gusty west to northwest wind this afternoon, elevated fire weather
conditions are likely to persist across at least western Oklahoma
and northern Texas, as afternoon humidity drops to 15 to 20
percent. Early this evening, winds are expected to become rather
light and humidity should improve rather quickly.

Overnight, most CAMs suggest strong to severe storms will develop
across northern Texas, as a warm front begins to lift northward.
Elevated instability across western north Texas and far southern
Oklahoma could approach 2000+ J/kg.  With rather strong effective
shear, large hail will certainly be possible, perhaps 2+ inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible, especially
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma Thursday morning.
Again most of the convection will be elevated with a risk of large
hail and gusty winds. It`s a little difficult to time the
embedded waves within the larger scale trough to our west, but it
appears there a lull in the precipitation Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.

Another round of showers and storms appears likely Thursday night
into Friday morning, as another embedded wave approaches the
southern Plains. It appears the synoptic front will remain south
of the area through Friday morning, so most of the convection will
be elevated with a risk of hail with some of the stronger storms.
Locally heavy rainfall may also become a problem if storms train
northwest of a stationary front across southeastern Oklahoma.

Another round of showers and storms will impact the southern Plains
late Friday into Saturday.  The additional rainfall during this
period may result in a better chance of excessive rainfall,
especially across south central/southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.

Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.

The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.

Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue through this
evening.

By late tonight into tomorrow morning, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move northward from Texas. The
highest chance for showers/storms is across southeast Oklahoma
(KDUA), decreasing in coverage to the northwest (where PROB30s
were included). MVFR to briefly IFR stratus will likely advance
northward tomorrow morning.

Westerly winds will back to the north, northeast, and then east
through the TAF period at most terminals.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  60  48  58 /  20  70  70 100
Hobart OK         48  63  46  60 /  20  40  80  90
Wichita Falls TX  51  63  50  62 /  50  50  80  90
Gage OK           45  64  43  58 /  40  40  60  80
Ponca City OK     49  62  47  59 /  20  70  40  90
Durant OK         55  66  56  71 /  60  90  80 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10