Ponca City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS64 KOUN 311701
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight
with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards.

- Shower and storm chances continue much of next week, with heavy
  rainfall and severe weather possible.

- Near average temperatures expected over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected later today as a
shortwave tracks southeastward across Kansas into Oklahoma, helping
send a cold front into northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Surface
moisture is currently fairly meager across the area, with dewpoints
in the low to mid 50s in many spots. Evapotranspiration will allow
for some recovery during the day ahead of the shortwave, but such
shallow moisture may have a tendency to mix out this afternoon (many
CAMs appear to be catching onto this). This will likely keep
instability in the weak to moderate range. That said, forecast
soundings exhibit strong directional turning in the wind profile
which should encourage storm organization, with a mix of storm
clusters and supercells expected. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the main hazards, as relatively weak low-level shear and
marginal surface moisture will limit the tornado threat overall.
Storms will likely linger well into the overnight hours as the
trough axis will not move east of the area until Sunday morning, but
overall storm intensity is expected to decrease after midnight.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Subsidence in the wake of the trough should yield dry and fairly
pleasant conditions across the area on Sunday, with light winds and
highs in the low to mid 80s. Surface flow becomes southeasterly by
late Sunday and will strengthen Monday in response to deepening
low pressure across the high plains. This will draw deeper
moisture back up into the region by Monday afternoon, with a
dryline expected to sharpen somewhere across the eastern TX
panhandle. A shortwave will approach the panhandles from the west
late in the day, which should help aid in storm development along
the dryline. These storms are expected to track into our area
Monday evening, bringing a risk for marginally severe hail and
wind to western Oklahoma. However, a lack of wind shear will
likely limit overall storm longevity and intensity as storms move
eastward into central Oklahoma.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Greater storm coverage and severe risk may materialize on Tuesday as
the shortwave tracks overhead and the dryline and a cold front move
into our area. Shortwave timing favors eastern parts of the area as
the wave axis is forecast to be near I-35 by late afternoon,
though a slightly slower wave would expand the risk to include
areas further west. Veered low-level flow and a low-level jet
centered to our east would suggest a limited tornado risk, but
this could change as we get closer.

Additional storm chances are expected through much of next week into
next weekend as the cold front stalls nearby and additional waves of
energy move across the region. Severe weather is possible but wave
timing and mesoscale details will determine specific days of
greater risk. Given multiple potential rounds of storms, heavy
rainfall and flooding is looking increasingly likely, with
rainfall totals > 6" a possibility in localized areas by next
weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from north-central
to southern Oklahoma late evening and into early Sunday morning.
Storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts and lead
to relatively brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  84  64  85 /  60  10   0  10
Hobart OK         63  87  65  91 /  40   0  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  66  88  67  91 /  40  10  10  10
Gage OK           57  86  62  90 /  20   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     60  85  62  86 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  83  66  85 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01