Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS64 KOUN 110015
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
715 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 711 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

 - Low (20%) chance showers and storms across northern and
   central Oklahoma this afternoon.

 - Widespread showers and storms Wednesday through Friday with a
   threat for heavy rainfall, especially across southern Oklahoma
   and north Texas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this
afternoon across northern into central Oklahoma. While there are
no surface or upper-level features that serve as a focus for
shower/thunderstorm development, daytime heating in an uncapped
environment has already been sufficient for a few showers this
afternoon. Given the weak flow aloft, any thunderstorms will be
pulse-type storms given the lack of shear and forcing. They will
also be tiny showers/storms, so most locations will remain dry
(especially given the lack of motion). These are diurnally-
driven by daytime heating, so any activity is expected to end with
the loss of daytime heating.

A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) across southwest Texas will
transition toward a cutoff low that will begin to lift to the
northeast tonight, which will increase synoptic-scale lift across
western north Texas/far southern Oklahoma toward sunrise tomorrow.
This will result in an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms across this area.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The upper-level low will move slowly eastward Wednesday through
Thursday, which will bring more active weather across the Southern
Plains. The highest chance for rain during this period will be
across the southeast half of Oklahoma and north Texas.

Heavy rainfall/flooding will be a threat given precipitable water
values are forecast to be high (ranging from 1.75" to 2") and the
antecedent conditions. Across south central into southeast
Oklahoma, widespread 2 to 4" of rainfall are possible through
Thursday night. There will likely be a tight northwest to
southeast gradient in rainfall, which will be highly dependent on
the exact track of the upper-level low. As a result, areas across
northwest Oklahoma may see little or no rainfall. There remains
some uncertainty on the upper-level low`s track as it`ll be
highly dependent on the evolution of tonight`s convection. If
confidence on a location of heavy rainfall increases, a Flood
Watch might be needed.

The severe weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the
expected storm mode (e.g., single/multicell characteristics) and
continuous convective overturning (i.e., widespread showers/storms
limiting instability). However, given the time of year with high
sun angle, it doesn`t take a lot of sun to see pockets of
instability develop. Any stronger storms would have a threat for
damaging wind gusts due to wet downbursts.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

There`s a fair bit of uncertainty with how fast the cutoff low takes
its bow and moves on from our area. Just from this evening`s model
guidance alone, the GFS would keep the low across the Ozarks while
the ECMWF shoves it further toward the Mississippi River. The
western fringe of the low will be the eastern fringe of an expansive
subtropical ridge. The further that low gets away from us, the more
the ridge pushes in. And if that ridge pushes in, we`ll finally
start seeing some full-on summer weather - drier, sunnier, hotter.
It`s too early to say which scenario looks likelier, but either way
periodic chances for rain should continue into early next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Precipitation chances are expected to be low (less than 20
percent) this evening with chances increase across the southwest
(KSPS and KLAW) Wednesday morning and spread east and northeast
through the day. Some MVFR ceilings are expected Wednesday, mainly
in southern Oklahoma and north Texas, and any showers and
thunderstorms will bring lower visibilities and ceilings. Winds
will increase from the south late Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  82  66  79 /  10  40  50  60
Hobart OK         65  81  65  84 /  20  50  50  30
Wichita Falls TX  69  82  67  83 /  30  70  70  60
Gage OK           62  83  63  84 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     66  86  66  80 /   0  10  30  50
Durant OK         69  83  69  80 /  10  60  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26