Muskogee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

865
FXUS64 KTSA 221133
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Much above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.
   Medium to high chance of daily record high temperatures.

 - Strong and gusty southerly winds are expected at times, but
   increasing low level moisture should limit the overall fire
   weather threat through at least the middle to latter part of
   the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Cloud cover and associated impacts to the expected high
temperatures will the main forecast problem for the rest of the
night and into Monday. Extensive batch of low clouds has expanded
much faster than initially forecast this evening, with overcast
conditions currently across all except the far northwest and far
northeast portions of the forecast area. With low level winds
turning toward the south and southwest during the day, the
expectation is for decreasing cloud cover with time, especially
across eastern Oklahoma. Clouds may hang on some along and west of
the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, where lower afternoon temperatures
are more likely to occur. In most areas, high temperatures should
be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Very warm and dry weather remains expected for the bulk of the
week ahead, with the latest data continuing to trend toward a
longer period of the near record to record setting temperatures
than appeared likely yesterday. Upper level ridging will continue
to expand across the south central United States Monday night and
into Tuesday, flattening a bit into the early part of the weekend.
The upper jet looks to dip far enough south to allow a front into
the region by Sunday, perhaps signaling an end to the late
December heat wave.

Low cloud expansion is expected once again Monday night,
especially across areas south and east of I-44, and depending on
how quickly they erode during the day Tuesday, presents a source
of uncertainty regarding the high temperature forecast on Tuesday.
Forecast highs on Tuesday have been trended downward a couple of
degrees from the NBM initialization using the short-term blended
guidance.

The Wednesday through Friday period remains likely to feature
record setting temperatures, with high temperature EFI values of
0.9 to 0.95 each day, strongly positive 850 temperature anomalies
and a strong westerly low level wind component aiding the warming
potential. The Friday high temperatures offered by the NBM looked
a touch too cool compared to other sources of guidance and were
adjusted upward using the NBM 50th percentile values.

In addition to the warm temperatures, Wednesday and Thursday
remain likely to be windy, with forecast speeds and gusts adjusted
upward more toward the NBM 90th percentile values. Although
temperatures will be very warm, higher dew points should keep
relative humidities above critical levels, limiting the overall
threat for fire weather on both days. By Friday, lower relative
humidities look to creep in to areas west of Highway 75, which
could lead to a localized uptick in the concerns depending on wind
speeds. Thankfully, speeds and gusts look to be lower on Friday.

Low rain chances and cooler temperatures are forecast in
association with the potential front Saturday night and into
Sunday. This is a lower confidence portion of the forecast,
however.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR ceilings this morning will clear out around midday at all
sites, with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings may return to some places late tonight, mainly from
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. South winds will gust to
near or above 20 knots late this morning and this afternoon at the
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  52  73  60 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   66  53  76  60 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   69  58  76  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  45  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   63  52  71  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   63  51  71  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   66  54  74  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   62  51  70  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   67  57  75  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   68  59  73  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05