Miami, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

453
FXUS64 KTSA 230520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

 - Cooler temperatures through Monday.

 - Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather returns
   Tuesday through Saturday.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns develop Tuesday with the return
   of warm weather and gusty south to southwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to slide across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Monday with light winds and some
passing high clouds common. These conditions will continue the
ongoing cooler temperatures with Monday morning lows in the teens
and 20s and highs again in the 40s to lower 50s. Overnight Monday
night, surface high exits off to the southeast allowing for
south to southwesterly flow to quickly fill in behind with breezy
conditions expected early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures Monday
night in the mid 20s to mid 30s are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

South to southwesterly winds increase during the day Tuesday with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph common over the CWA. Greater moisture
advection into the region is forecast to be delayed until Tuesday
evening/night, which will allow afternoon min humidity values to
fall into the 20 to 30 percent range as warmer high temperatures
are expected. In response, elevated fire weather concerns are
anticipated Tuesday over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Burning should likely be avoided Tuesday. Fire weather danger
should decrease Tuesday nigh with weakening winds and increasing
low level moisture while surface low pressure builds into the
region.

A surface boundary sets up over the region Wednesday while surface
low pressure remains common. Much of the CWA looks to be south of
this boundary, which will aid in continued above seasonal average
temperatures and low level moisture advection into the region.
Wednesday night a shortwave is progged to drop southeastward
through the Plains and provide low chances of light rain to parts
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Elevated instability
is forecast to be limited, though higher mid level lapse rates
and an increasing low level jet ahead of the shortwave could
create an isolated potential for a few lightning strikes over the
higher terrain of far northwest Arkansas. For now will keep
thunder potentials just below mentionable criteria until
forecaster confidence increases. The shortwave exits Thursday
morning with breezy northerly winds spreading over the CWA
Thursday afternoon.

Northerly flow is short-lived while surface high quickly moves
over the CWA. Southerly winds and warmer temperatures are again
forecast Friday into Saturday, which could create limited fire
weather dangers each afternoon. Beyond Friday, latest model
solutions continue to differ with a wave and cold front moving
out into the Plains over the weekend into early next week. For now
will continue with slight chances of rain Saturday night into
Monday, though moisture return at this time looks to be limited.
Will just have to wait and see how things progress through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  22  49  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  24  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   51  24  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   46  16  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   44  17  46  28 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  18  43  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   48  22  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  17  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  22  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  27  55  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05