Miami, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

222
FXUS64 KTSA 160548
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

 - Low thunderstorm chances through Sunday. Limited severe risk
   Sunday afternoon and evening.

 - Strong winds possible across NE OK through early Saturday
   morning, especially near shower and thunderstorm activity.

 - A more active weather pattern is expected early next week
   including the risk of higher-end severe weather and heavy
   rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Elevated storms have decreased in coverage but winds remain gusty
near and north of where the activity has been weakening. A short-
term wind advisory will be issued to cover areas along and north of
I-44 for the gusty winds beneath the decaying showers/storms. This
activity has been occurring ahead of a shortwave trough that shows
up on WV imagery to our west. An MCS is weakening as it progresses
east near the Red River and vicinity, but is in the process of
leaving an MCV behind. This MCV is expected to track across SE OK
and NW AR during the morning and midday hours on Saturday, in tandem
with the broader shortwave trough. Given the steep lapse rates aloft
as the previous shift mentioned, this forcing will result in other
round of elevated/high-based showers and isolated storms moving east
across the region tonight into Saturday. Once this wave/MCV passes
Saturday afternoon, there will be a lull in activity. Chances of
storm development on the dryline out west are minimal Saturday
afternoon.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Aside from a low chance of showers from the ArkLaTex up into NW AR
in the deep-layer moist plume, the focus on Sunday will continue to
be to the west of the forecast area on the dryline. Isolated storm
development is possible, with any storms that survive into eastern
OK carrying a higher-end severe risk.

A strong upper trough is expected to emerge into the central Plains
Monday. By Monday afternoon, a sharp dryline will lie over western
OK extending north to a triple point over KS where it intersects a
southeastward-surging cold front. There will be a more pronounced
increase in low level moisture east of the dryline with dewpoints
climbing into the 70s. There is some disagreement on how capped the
warm sector will be, with the EC showing some capping and the GFS
showing an uncapped airmass. This could affect warm sector quality.
With at least a glancing influence from the ejecting shortwave
trough, storms are expected to develop off the dryline and will
carry the highest severe threat potential for this forecast into
eastern OK Monday afternoon and evening.

The models today continue with a more aggressive southward push to
the cold front. Current progs have the front sliding south across
the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The front would focus
storms and some severe threat as well as it moves through. Depending
on the speed of the front, there could be some severe weather and
locally heavy rainfall potential Tuesday afternoon and evening over
SE OK and NW AR. While some chance for showers and storms will
persist over the region through Thursday in advance of a shortwave
trough, the greater severe weather potential will shift south of the
region with the front. Rain/storm chances will persist through the
end of next week as moisture returns, but we lose the flow aloft,
thus severe potential will be limited.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail for all sites through the
forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are ongoing across the region early tonight. Strong
winds have been observed near this activity, and expect this
potential to continue through the night. In general, gusts in
excess of 35 kts will be possible, though a few gusts as high as
45-50 kts have been observed in far NE OK. Precip potential will
wane through the late morning hours, then the area is expected to
remain dry through the remainder of the period. Guidance hints at
some low cloud development this morning and again tonight, but
currently believe cigs will remain VFR. The nocturnal LLJ will
provide LLWS through the overnight hours and again Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  87  74 /  20   0   0  30
FSM   88  69  87  72 /  10   0  20  30
MLC   87  70  86  75 /  10   0  10  30
BVO   88  71  86  72 /  20   0  10  30
FYV   84  67  83  71 /  20   0   0  30
BYV   86  67  86  71 /  20   0  10  20
MKO   86  70  84  72 /  20   0   0  30
MIO   86  69  84  72 /  30   0   0  30
F10   87  71  86  73 /  20   0   0  30
HHW   87  70  87  73 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055>064-154-254-
     354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43