El Reno, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS64 KOUN 130719
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
219 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this morning.

- Low chance of showers and storms continue through this weekend.

- Temperatures rising above average through the middle of next
  week with heat indices near to above 100 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Isentropic ascent/warm air advection augmented by a low-level jet
(~35 knots at 925 mb) will result in chance of scattered showers
and thunderstorms across northwest into central Oklahoma early
this morning. The most intense thunderstorms may produce some
small hail given the ~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This activity will
generally move to the south-southeast this morning.

By this afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with daytime heating in a moist (i.e.,
precipitable water values >1.5") and a weakly capped environment,
especially for locations near and east of I-35. This area will be
on the western periphery of an upper-level low centered across
southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. Any thunderstorms that
develop in the afternoon should be diurnally-driven and should
weaken by this evening. Given the magnitude of instability, any
storms that develop could be strong to perhaps severe with a
threat for hail and gusty winds (especially from wet downbursts).

By late this evening into overnight hours, a decaying mesoscale
convective complex (MCS) is forecast to approach western Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of western north Texas from the High Plains.
The remnants may impact areas near the 100th meridian before
dissipating. In addition, isentropic ascent/warm air advection
may result in additional showers and thunderstorms across eastern
to perhaps central Oklahoma toward sunrise.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

By Saturday and Sunday, Oklahoma and north Texas will be east of
a ~595 dam mid-level ridge centered across the southwest U.S. With
a general weakness/lowered heights across the Southern Plains and
a moist, weakly capped environment, there will be a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms. There will be the potential
for both daytime, diurnally-driven convection and remnant
complexes from the northerly flow aloft. Any thunderstorms that
develop could become strong to severe with a threat for hail and
gusty winds given the moist, highly unstable air mass.

Temperatures should gradually rise to above-average with the
Southern Plains on the eastern periphery of a low-level thermal
ridge. Temperatures across southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas
may approach 100 deg F with generally 90s deg F elsewhere.
Combined with a moist air mass (i.e., dew points in the upper 60s
and 70s deg), heat index values are forecast to reach 105 deg F
across parts of the area.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Rising mid-level heights and a strengthening low-level thermal
ridge are expected by early next week as the mid-level ridge
becomes elongated to the northeast into the Southern Plains. This
synoptic-scale pattern will result in a gradual rise in
temperatures through early next week with many locations forecast
to have heat indices in the 100s deg F. The chance for rain
should almost decrease during this period.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level ridge may become
suppressed to the southwest as a trough approaches the Plains.
This may allow a cold front to advance southward with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms by midweek.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

While the chance of showers at any of the airports is too low to
include a PROB30 group, there is some signal for isolated showers
or storms to develop from northwest into central Oklahoma
overnight, so there is at least a low (20%) potential for
showers/storms at some of the TAF sites. The MVFR ceilings will
become more widespread overnight across the eastern portion of the
forecast area, with some locally IFR ceilings. The ceilings should
lift later in the morning after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  72  93  72 /  40  20  10  10
Hobart OK         96  71  98  73 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  73  97  76 /  10  10   0  10
Gage OK           94  67  95  69 /  10  20   0  20
Ponca City OK     85  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  20
Durant OK         89  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26