Del City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

083
FXUS64 KOUN 122326
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Lingering shower/storm chances tomorrow, with locally heavy
  downpours possible.

- Low shower/storm chances continue this weekend into next week.
  Some severe possible, but low predictability prevails.

- Temperatures warming above average through the middle of next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been most prevalent
across eastern portions of the area so far today as the slow-moving
upper low continues to drift north and eastward across eastern
Oklahoma. Pop-up activity will continue mainly along/east of I-35
this afternoon, with a downward trend then expected this evening
with loss of daytime heating. The main hazard through this evening
will continue to be locally heavy downpours, with little
instability or shear to support a severe threat.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The upper low will track further from the area on Friday, though
remain close enough for the chance of a few showers and storms on
the backside of the circulation across central into eastern
Oklahoma. We may also see a few storms across northwest/western
Oklahoma Friday evening/overnight as northwest flow on the periphery
of upper ridging to our west directs high plains convection south
and eastward. Predictability on this scenario is low as models are
all over the place on coverage of storms or if we will see storms
make it into our area at all. If we see storms, a few of the
stronger ones would be capable of marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Low predictability continues into Saturday as weak northwest flow
remains in place along with a moist and unstable airmass. Some
guidance suggests we could see thunderstorm development locally due
to backed upslope flow and enough convergence for convective
initiation, while other guidance suggests we wait until Saturday
night for high plains convection (with a few solutions keeping us
mainly dry). Given such a wide variety of possibilities, have kept
chance PoPs in place Saturday into Saturday night and kept timing
fairly broad.

Temperatures will warm significantly on Friday and Saturday compared
to the last several days, with a return of 90s to most of the area.
Of course, more significant/widespread thunderstorm activity would
act to dampen this warming trend.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Global guidance continues to depict a deamplification of the ridge
on Sunday and Monday, with the eastern lobe of it reached the Llano
Estacado. Interestingly enough, there does look like there will be
15-30 knots of 500 mb flow coming from the due north on the
downstream periphery of the ridge. That would seem to argue for a
pattern favoring High Plains development and storms reaching toward
the western parts of our areas in the evening, particularly with the
early-summer humid airmass still in place. As for temperatures
themselves - if those 500 mb heights do in fact start pushing 591-
594 dam, mid-to-upper 90s seem like a pretty reasonable landing
zone, with maybe some low 100s in the southwest OK/western north TX
heat bullseye.

Global models also continue to show a trough reaching its way into
the Great Plains toward the middle of the week, though significant
timing uncertainties remain. Regardless, this trough argues against
the self-reinforcing "heat dome" that NBM seems to be leaning
toward, so if I had to hedge my guesses on how NBM will verify with
temperatures from next Wednesday onward, I`d lean toward it biasing
high. Furthermore, if that trough is able to penetrate through the
ridge and bring southwest or even westerly flow to the Southern
Plains again, chances for organized thunderstorms would increase.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Some MVFR ceilings persist at KSWO but otherwise conditions have
become VFR. But MVFR ceilings will redevelop and affect the
central, north central and southeast Oklahoma sites with some
local IFR ceilings as well. Surface winds will be light,
increasing somewhat from the south/southeast after sunrise
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  88  70  89 /  20  20  20  10
Hobart OK         67  97  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  95  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           64  93  67  93 /  10   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     66  87  68  89 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         69  88  73  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26