Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Choctaw OK
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Choctaw OK
Issued by: National Weather Service Norman, OK |
Updated: 12:46 am CDT Jul 13, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Chance Showers
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Sunday
 Chance Showers then Slight Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Monday
 Partly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Monday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Tuesday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Tuesday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Wednesday
 Chance T-storms
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Lo 69 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 75 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
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Overnight
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Monday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph in the morning. |
Monday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Tuesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. |
Tuesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. |
Wednesday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. |
Wednesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. |
Thursday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. |
Thursday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. |
Friday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. |
Friday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 74. |
Saturday
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Sunny, with a high near 94. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Choctaw OK.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
087
FXUS64 KOUN 130626
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
- Rain chances shift east today. Locally heavy rainfall still
possible.
- Warming trend this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
The mid-level trough is shifting east and has pushed much of the
precipitation to the east of the area. With the trough axis in the
vicinity, we likely will see redevelopment of showers and storms
today, mainly across the east. Precipitable water values are
still forecast to be 1.5 to 2.0 inches across the eastern half of
the area, so heavy rainfall will remain possible. But drier mid-
level air is filtering into the area on the back side of the mid-
level trough, with precipitable water values down to closer to one
inch. With lower chances of rain in the west and lower PW values
in the west, we have cancelled the Flood Watch across western and
central sections, but keeping it near and east of a Seminole to
Madill line.
The mid-level trough is now forecast to keep migrating east,
although somewhat slowly, with rain chances decreasing from west
to east today and tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
A number of models (especially NAM, HRRR, ARW) suggest the
potential of a mid-level circulation to move northeast from the
Texas Hill County toward southeast Oklahoma late tonight into
early Monday, so the potential of showers and storms increase
again Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma. But precipitation
chances decrease through the day. The NAM shows a strong enough
circulation and a slow enough movement that it would suggest storm
chances linger into Monday evening across the southeast, but this
is an outlier solution and may be suffering from convective
feedback so will not deviate from NBM at this point, but will
watch trends in upcoming model runs.
Although the mid-level ridge does not build strongly behind this
exiting system, heights do rise and with fewer clouds and less
precipitation into Tuesday, forecast temperatures do begin to
rise closer to average values for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
It still appears that no strong upper ridge builds into the
western U.S. or the Plains. Flow aloft generally remains zonal
over the Plains. Medium range models do show a surface front
approaching or moving into northern Oklahoma on Wednesday night
in response to a wave moving across the Northern Plains. This will
give us the best chance of showers/storms in northern Oklahoma
this week. 500 mb heights are forecast to rise late in the week,
so temperatures will likely trend warmer Friday/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Most of our terminals should remain in the VFR category at least
through 09Z, then reduce to MVFR conditions with lowering
ceilings. There are low 30% probabilities for rain by 12Z across
some of our terminals which may also reduce briefly to IFR
conditions with lowering ceilings. Much of the current rain in the
next six hours will be across terminal KDUA in southeast Oklahoma
although ceilings may stay just above MVFR conditions there. All
mentions of rain should be out of the forecast by 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 85 69 88 71 / 20 10 20 10
Hobart OK 90 69 92 71 / 0 10 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 89 71 91 73 / 20 20 20 10
Gage OK 87 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 85 67 88 69 / 20 0 10 10
Durant OK 86 72 89 72 / 60 30 40 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ031-032-042-043-047-048-
051-052.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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