Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

225
FXUS64 KOUN 021113
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
613 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Severe thunderstorms possible through the morning and again overnight
  into Thursday. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk
  will exist with strongest storms.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible this afternoon in
  western OK and western north TX.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.
  Strong to severe storms will remain possible through at least
  the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A cold front will continue to move across the area through the
morning hours. Moisture continues to advect northward across the
area with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as the KS-OK border early
this morning and upper 60s/around 70 dewpoints in southern parts of
the fa. As the front interacts with this moist airmass, at least
some thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front.
Some models are also showing some storms developing in the warm,
moist sector ahead of the dryline and south of the front. There is
currently a strong cap so amount/extent of storms and whether they
are surface based or not are questions but some models show the cap
eroding a bit as the early morning hours progress. The moist,
unstable airmass will make severe storms possible. Large/very large
hail and damaging winds will be possible. If storms can become
surface based, then tornadoes will also be possible, especially with
any discrete supercells. The chances for showers/storms will
diminish later this morning.

Another round of showers/storms is expected again later this evening
and overnight as a warm front lifts north into parts of the fa.
Moist airmass advecting northward with the WAA will aid in the
shower/storm development. The highest chances will be generally
along/south of I-40 with this round. Strong/severe storms will be
possible again tonight into Thursday with large hail and damaging
winds the main concerns.

Despite the rain chances, elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible this afternoon in parts of western OK and western north TX
that do not receive any rainfall today. Drier air will move into
this area behind the front leading to low RH (10-15%). The low RH,
mild temperatures, somewhat breezy winds and dry vegetation will
lead to the elevated conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Southwest flow aloft will continue Thursday and Friday continuing
the wet pattern across the area.

Showers/storms Wednesday night will continue through the day on
Thursday with lingering potential for severe storms. This round of
showers/storms is expected to diminish Thursday afternoon/evening.
Another round with rain chances becoming widespread again is
expected to begin Thursday night/early Friday and continue into
Friday night as impulses continue to move through the flow. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Models show main upper trough finally shifting east of the area late
this weekend/early next week. At the sfc, a cold front moves across
the area Fri night/Saturday with colder air moving into the region.

Showers/storms will continue across the fa Saturday with
precipitation chances slowly ending Sat. night/Sunday. By the end of
the weekend several inches of rain are expected across portions of
the fa, with the highest amounts expected to be generally in SE
parts of the fa. The lowest amounts are currently expected across
western and northern parts of the area with half an inch to an inch
of rain possible over the several days. With the cold air moving
into the region, some snow could also mix with the rain in western
parts of the area Saturday night before the precipitation ends but
no impacts are expected from the snow.

The colder air will lead to a cool/cold weekend with well below
average temperatures. On Saturday, highs are expected to range from
the upper 40s (NW OK) to low 60s (SE OK). Highs will be in the 50s
Sunday. Unfortunately we are not done with the freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures at or below freezing are expected
across the NW third or so of the fa both Saturday and Sunday nights.

Models show generally NW flow aloft next week leading to a dry
forecast into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are
also expected to gradually warm after the weekend but remain
cool/mild for at least the first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A southeast moving line of storms has cleared most of the TAF
sites and will impact KDUA between 13z and 15z. Once this moves
through, the TAFs will be mainly a wind forecast with a couple of
wind shifts and periods of breeziness (confidence in direction and
speeds is somewhat lower than normal).

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  51  62  50 /   0  50  50  60
Hobart OK         74  49  67  48 /   0  50  20  70
Wichita Falls TX  79  52  66  51 /   0  70  40  80
Gage OK           70  44  67  44 /   0  60  20  60
Ponca City OK     72  49  63  48 /   0  30  50  30
Durant OK         82  57  69  58 /  50  80  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14