Choctaw, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

075
FXUS64 KOUN 110534
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

 - Severe storms are possible early this morning. Main hazards are
   damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.

 - Temperatures "cooling" slightly below average early to middle
   of the week, gradually warming into next weekend.

 - Low chances for showers and storms continue much of the week,
   with highest chances today and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Numerous thunderstorms have developed along a stationary boundary
draped across northern Oklahoma this evening, supported by a
modest south-southwesterly low-level jet nearly perpendicular to
the boundary. Ample atmospheric moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.9"), along
with training of storms over the same areas, will lead to a
continuation of flooding concerns along this corridor over the
next several hours. Localized amounts of 3-5" have already been
reported, with flash flooding ongoing in some areas. Several more
inches of rain are possible in some spots before activity
diminishes later this morning. In addition to the flash flooding
threat, the stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind
gusts, possibly in excess of 70 mph.

There will likely be a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity from
late morning through mid afternoon before another round of storms is
expected to develop along the outflow/frontal boundary. Highest
storm chances will be along and northwest of the I-44 corridor
during the afternoon and evening, with activity then likely
weakening as it drifts southeastward across the rest of the area
overnight. The stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds and
heavy rainfall with localized flooding a concern once again.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Shower and storm chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday, though
overall coverage is expected to decrease during this period as
troughing begins to weaken and forcing becomes more nebulous. As of
now the highest PoPs (20-40%) are centered across central and
southeastern parts of the area. Temperatures will remain on the
cooler side of average with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each
day.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Upper ridging will begin to rebuild across the southeastern US as we
head into the end of the week into the weekend. This should lead to
a rebound in temperatures, with highs pushing near or slightly
above seasonal averages (mid to upper 90s) by Saturday and Sunday.
Rain/storm chances are expected to decrease during this period
but not disappear altogether as the center of the upper ridge will
be far enough from the area to allow for at least slight chances
(10-20%) for storms to continue into the weekend.


Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Numerous thunderstorms have developed along a frontal boundary
which is draped across far northern Oklahoma. Some of the storms
will produce strong wind gusts over 50 knots and very heavy
rainfall. This will result in MVFR ceilings and visibility. An
outflow boundary is also pushing quickly to the south which should
bring a wind shift to CSM/OKC and perhaps OUN. As this occurs
widely scattered showers/storms will be possible north of the
outflow. Terminal sites across southern Oklahoma and northern
Texas should keep a southeasterly wind and VFR conditions. The
overnight convection should decrease Monday morning, but residual
clouds will remain. Low confidence in where the frontal boundary
will be by Monday afternoon. This feature should result in
additional showers and storms that will continue through the
evening.  At this will place higher chances of afternoon/evening
storms around the PNC/SWO and CSM terminals with a mention at
OKC/OUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  70  89  71 /  30  60  30  20
Hobart OK         96  68  90  69 /  20  60  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  97  72  92  72 /  10  20  20  10
Gage OK           88  64  88  64 /  40  60  20  10
Ponca City OK     90  69  88  69 /  60  70  40  20
Durant OK         95  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>008-010>013.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06