Ada, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

787
FXUS64 KOUN 181723
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1123 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

 - Elevated to near critical fire danger risk across parts of our
   area from Thursday into Saturday.

 - Warming trend peaks on Saturday with above-average temperatures
   on every day through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Our main issues in the near term will be windy conditions from a
cold front coming through this morning with an increasing fire
danger risk for this afternoon.

A large scale weather system will be coming through with the upper
low coming down from Canada into the U.S. Northern Plains tracking
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Regions. An upper trough from
this system will dig across the Central & Southern Plains pushing a
fast moving cold front across our area during the morning hours.
Currently the cold front is stretched across western Kansas and is
expected to start pushing into northwest Oklahoma around 3 AM and
through our entire forecast area by late morning. Our area will see
gusty northwest winds behind the frontal boundary from 20-25 mph
sustained.  Gusts at 30-40 mph will be possible behind the front
especially by late morning mixing at least to the 925 mb level.
Expecting our area to remain windy through the afternoon then
decreasing and less gusty after sundown as surface high pressure
builds in.  Can`t rule out the potential for a Wind Advisory by late
morning should winds exceed 40 mph into higher mixing heights but
confidence is not high enough to issue one early as this will need
to monitored.  As far as the wind grids, did go slightly higher than
NBM default with the post-frontal wind speeds using the NBM 90th
percentile nudged at 50% through the morning.  NBM has a good handle
with the afternoon winds.

Expecting the coldest Canadian air from this system to surge more
into the U.S. Midwestern Region with little if any cooling into the
Southern Plains as above normal temperatures will persist this
afternoon.   However, a much drier air mass will come through behind
the front resulting in very low afternoon relative humidities across
our area.  The drier air combined with gusty winds will increase the
fire danger to a Near Critical Risk across all of western Oklahoma
and adjacent western north Texas to an Elevated Risk across the
remainder of our counties.  The fire danger risk will lower after
sundown as winds gradually decrease and the RH rises/recovers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

High pressure settles over our area tonight with winds going light &
variable by midnight.  Perhaps just a few thin high clouds but
expecting strong radiation cooling within this new drier air mass
with temperatures dropping below freezing generally between 25-30
degrees although not expecting much of a wind chill.  Did go cooler
than NBM with the MinT for Thursday night using the CONSMOS.  The
upper trough starts exiting to the east on Friday with gusty south
winds returning bringing in a warmer air mass at least into our
southwestern CWA.  Much of the moisture advection will be across
southeast Oklahoma so expecting another day of very low afternoon RH
values across all but southeast Oklahoma.  The gusty winds and dry
air will again Elevate the fire danger risk Friday afternoon across
all but southeast Oklahoma.

Our upper flow becoming zonal on Saturday advecting relatively warm
California Pacific-based air over our area, yet a system moving
across Canada just north of the Great Lakes will be pushing our next
dry cold front through on Saturday afternoon.  The 1000-850 mb layer
thicknesses suggest some cooling behind this front with the
"coldest" air restricted to our northern states.  Our southern CWA
should stay pre-frontal through most of Saturday afternoon warming
well into the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s across western north
Texas.  Not expecting to break any temperatures on Saturday
afternoon in OKC but near record breaking across our southwest where
the fire danger risk will be.  Much of Saturdays heating will depend
on the exact location of the cold front by late afternoon.  Cold on
Saturday night enhanced by a wind chill should north winds persist
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Upper zonal flow persist through Monday with a warm ridge building
on Tuesday.  Although a cooler air mass in place on Sunday
temperatures will stay remain warmer than normal going into late
December. Gusty south winds return Monday bringing in a warmer air
mass bringing the start of a new warming trend into next week with
temperatures 20-25 degrees warmer than the climatically 30-year
average.  The building upper ridge over Southern Plains continue to
trend a warm, breezy, and dry Christmas Eve leading into Christmas
Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A cold front has produced a wind shift at all TAF sites this
morning. Wind gusts over 35-40 knots are possible behind the front
especially across portions of northern and western Oklahoma. By
23Z, the wind will diminish and will become light and variable
by 5-6Z. Surface high pressure will build quickly to the south and
east on Friday which will result in a quick return of a south
wind. As mixing occurs Friday morning, wind gusts will exceed
30 knot (~15Z Friday) across west central and northwest Oklahoma.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  27  61  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         61  28  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  30  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  25  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     57  26  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         64  33  62  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>013-015.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>012-
     014>016.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...06