Beavercreek, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

488
FXUS61 KILN 131334
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
934 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An advancing upper low and associated frontal boundary will dominate
the weather for Friday and the weekend, increasing the chances for
showers with some thunderstorms. The associated surface frontal
boundary will become nearly stationary across the upper Ohio Valley
throughout the weekend, resulting in several rounds of showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930AM Update....
Some breaks in the clouds this morning will help with CAPE
production. Some light showers remain on the scope near the Tristate.
Still expecting that shower and storm coverage will begin to increase
later this afternoon and even more into the evening hours with the
progression of the shortwave trough. However, there will be more dry
time during the daylight hours today given the isolated to scattered
nature of storm initiation.

Previous discussion ---->
A slow moving upper low over the southern plains will allow for
increasing southerly flow and marginal instability over the region
today. Still a little dry air in the low levels over the forecast
area, so radar echoes are from clouds of 6kft-8kft, so the
expectation is for precipitation at ground level to hold off until
very late morning in the west, with also a slight chance across the
north where a surface boundary lingers.

After 18-20z, PW values increase to 1.5-1.8, up to the 90th
percentile for early June. While instability is marginal, in the
southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid level trough, the
potential increases for more widespread showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms. As PWs increase and LCLs decrease by mid afternoon,
with increased potential for localized heavier rain. Will include a
mention primarily in the Tri- state area of the potential for scattered
flood issues.

With the thickening clouds, daytime highs will be more muted in the
low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
While the approaching trough and quasi-stationary surface boundary
will allow a focus for showers and storms to linger into the evening,
with loss of diurnal heating and no focused LLJ, there should be a
relative lull in shower/storm coverage as the night progresses.
Indications from several of the CAMs of a lull in the tri-state, with
more focused potential for scattered precipitation lifting closer to
areas along/north of I-71 closer to the stalled surface boundary.
Plenty of low level moisture lingers, with muggy overnight conditions
and lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday will bring more rounds of showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Localized flooding will continue to be a threat, as
some areas will see repeated rounds of moderate/occasionally heavy
rain. Daytime highs near 80.

Even with the proximity of the surface boundary and upper low
approaching, instability and shear remain pretty marginal for
Saturday, with DCAPEs/potential for wet microbursts marginal with
values near/below 500 J/Kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Saturday evening, an upper trough (and associated weak surface
low) will be moving slowly eastward across the Ohio Valley. Ahead of
the trough, deep-layer southerly flow will be in place from the
southeastern CONUS into the Ohio Valley, providing moisture
advection into the region. The trough will provide a source of broad
ascent, though it is also likely that the diurnal cycle will play a
role in PoPs -- with a diminishing trend Saturday night, then higher
chances again Sunday afternoon, followed by much lower chances later
Sunday night into Monday morning before the trough fully departs the
area. Model soundings suggest this will be a moist and somewhat
unstable air mass, with generally poor lapse rates and weak
tropospheric flow. Based on these sounding profiles, risks for
severe weather appear very limited, though some risk for heavy rain
could develop -- perhaps under heavier slow-moving thunderstorms.
Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 80s. Mid 80s are expected on
Monday, with slightly clearer skies and slightly lower chances for
rain.

Heading into the middle of the week, the overall flow pattern will
become a bit more progressive, which will be a change from some of
the slower-moving weather setups that have affected the area for the
past couple weeks. Boundary layer flow will generally be
southwesterly, bringing gradual increases in heat and humidity as
the week progresses -- with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by
Wednesday, and dewpoints getting into the lower 70s. This will lead
to an increase in instability, with some increase in deep-layer wind
flow also present. As such, conditions will be favorable for showers
and storms, depending on the timing of any shortwaves or broader
forcing that move into the area. Some severe weather threat could
end up developing, but at this distance in time, the forecast
specifics are too nebulous to pinpoint when or where.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through at least 18z, after which showers
ahead of the advancing upper trough to affect the TAF locations
generally after 15z. As the moisture in the column increases, lowered
LCLs will bring the potential for MVFR ceilings and visibility in
advancing showers. The most likely visibility restrictions will be a
KCVG/KLUK/KILN through about 02z. Most of the activity will wane with
the diurnal cycle, after which point the focus for precip will be
closer to the nearly stationary boundary. Closer to this boundary,
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK will have the best chance for MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings after 04-06z. Late Friday night into Saturday will continue
the MVFR to IFR CIGs, with renewed chances for visibility
restrictions in heavier showers/thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Friday night
through Tuesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and
visibility.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...Clark/JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR