Williston, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS63 KBIS 100816
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
316 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today (highs in the 70s to lower 80s), before trending
  cooler into the 60s by Thursday and Friday.

- Near surface smoke may return this morning, lasting through
  the day.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin
  Wednesday, with the greatest chances for precipitation on
  Thursday (50 to 70 percent).

- Heading into the weekend, temperatures are favored to trend a
  bit warmer (highs in the 70s to around 80), along with
  continued chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

This morning, high pressure has eased into the area, resulting
in generally clear skies and calm winds. Some scattered clouds
up in the north central had brought about a few weak radar
returns, with minimal precipitation reports. There have also
been some reports of patchy fog mixed in with some smoke due to
very weak southerly upslope flow, generally in the James River
Valley, where some visibilities have dropped to 2 to 4 miles.
The aforementioned clouds may help clear out some of this fog as
they move over the area, but its unsure if the clouds will make
it that far south. Aloft, a ridge to our west continues to
slowly build into the area, with flow shifting more
northwesterly, resulting in a dry and warm day today. Highs will
range from the mid 70s north to lower 80s south. A weak front
pushing through the area this morning will also lead to the
possibility for another round of surface smoke, spreading from
northwest to southeast through the day today. While visibility
reductions don`t appear to be as bad as the past couple pushes
of smoke, the smell and milky sky are likely to be present
again.

Tonight into Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more zonal/westerly.
A weak shortwave disturbance moving through the flow to our
south may bring some showers and possibly a thunderstorm to the
west, with chances in the 20 to 40 percent range. Shear will be
plentiful, but the ample instability axis will be just to our
west. While the far southwest does get clipped by a Marginal
Risk from the SPC, this is mostly just dependent on if a
stronger storm that forms across Montana is able to wander
across the border and carry its energy for a little bit. This
potential, however, is still very low. Temperatures also cool
slightly, into the mid 70s.

A more substantial wave is expected to push into the area on
Thursday, with widespread 50 to 70 percent chances for showers
and thunderstorms from early Thursday morning through early
Friday morning. This system is also expected to bring some
cooler air with it behind a cold front, with highs Thursday and
Friday only in the 60s. These cooler temperatures, however, may
also help hamper the severe chances for this system. There will
certainly be plenty shear, but instability will be limited due
to the cooler (albeit more moist) air moving into the area.
Thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe potential remains
minimal, but non-zero. There has been a slight increase in the
overall QPF forecast for this system though, especially across
the southwest, where a large swath of 40 to 50 percent chances
for at least a half inch of rain is present for Thursday. From
Friday onward, flow aloft continues to remain zonal, leaning
southwesterly at times. As a result, daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue, along with a slight warming
trend. Generally southerly flow at the low levels will help
transport moisture northward in typical summertime fashion, also
leading to higher dewpoints and increased potential in
ingredients lining up for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions are present are expected to continue through the
night. KJMS may see some visibility reductions due to a
combination of patchy fog and smoke, though the exact
predictability remains low. A more substantial plume of smoke
will push through the area through the day today. While there
currently are not any MVFR visibility reductions in the
forecast, we will keep an eye on how visibility reports evolve
to our north, in case the values drop lower than initially
anticipated. Generally light winds tonight will turn to the
north/northwest this morning after a front moves through the
area, with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson