Watford City, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

911
FXUS63 KBIS 231445
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cool, breezy, and mostly dry weather pattern to start the
  workweek, followed by a very gradual warmup with increasing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe during the
  middle of the week, but the best chances for the return of
  severe weather are towards the end of the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Quiet weather continues across the state this morning as some
low clouds continue to move from northwest to southeast. No
updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The forecast remains on track. See updated aviation discussion
below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Surface high pressure will track through much of the state this
afternoon and evening. Ahead of the high, breezy westerly winds
are expected this morning before diminishing from west to east
this afternoon. Dry conditions and relatively cool temperatures
are on tap for the day. This translates to highs in the 60s for
most of the state, though the southeast may see some readings in
the low 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most
locations. Other than low chances for light showers in the far
southwest, mostly dry conditions are expected for tonight as
well.

Mostly dry conditions will then persist into Tuesday, though a
few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southwest
during the afternoon hours. Overall, instability looks pretty
limited in the southwest Tuesday afternoon, though shear remains
strong with around 40 to 50 kts of 0 to 6 km bulk shear per the
latest RAP and GFS. As a result, severe weather is not favored
at this time. Although a couple strong storms aren`t entirely
out of the question either.

A zonal to southwesterly flow pattern aloft is progged Tuesday
night through the remainder of the week. Embedded shortwaves
will likely result in the return of an active weather pattern.
That said, instability remains pretty low Tuesday night through
Thursday morning. Still, higher shear in the southwest Wednesday
afternoon could result in few strong to severe storms. Thursday
afternoon may see the return of higher instability, though shear
is favored to be on the lower end potentially limiting the
severe threat. As of now, based on deterministic models and
supported by CSU Machine learning, Friday looks like the best
day for additional severe weather chances. If this winds up
becoming the case, and that remains a big if, it will be the
result of elevated instability as southerly flow at the surface
pumps Gulf of America moisture into the region, while higher
shear values return.

Beyond temperatures already mentioned for today, expect highs
mostly in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. A warming trend is then
expected to finish off the workweek with highs likely in the
80s across the state, perhaps with some 90 degree readings. Lows
Tuesday night and Wednesday night will mostly be in the 50s
before some lows in the low 60s are progged Thursday night and
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

MVFR stratus is present over much of western and parts of north
central ND and is gradually moving eastward. It seems
southwestern stratus will likely dissipate before reaching KBIS,
though there is an outside chance it could reach the terminal.
Northern stratus will likely persist for parts of northern ND
through the morning before skies clear and become VFR through
the remainder of the period. Other than MVFR ceilings, expect
breezy westerly winds across the state this morning that will
diminish from west to east this afternoon and eventually become
light and variable.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken