Valley City, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS63 KFGF 231232
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
732 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for severe thunderstorms is Friday & Saturday...

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Clearing into central and moving into eastern ND. The west edge
of clearing has stalled a bit as lower clouds forming on west
edge. Rain has moved out though out of the far southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb tourgh in Saskatchewan moving east-northeast. This is
helping to push the ridge axis a bit east and take the unstable
airmass east of our area and end the t-storm threat early this
morning. A few showers will remain over a part of the far
southeast fcst area til past sunrise, but otherwise looking at a
dry period today & Tuesday. Separate 500 mb short wave near
Regina will move northeast and take its rain with it. A second
wave near Edmonton will move southeast and east thru
Saskatchewan later today and tonight with chance of showers and
t-storms with it but again remaining north of the border.

Satelllite shows a dry slot working into central and will be
working into E ND early this morning ahead of upper level
trough. Clouds with trough as it moves ENE into Manitoba will
return to DVL basin and northern valley later this morning and
aftn before clearing out this evening.

Weak high pressure builds overhead tonight with light winds.
Also a possibility for ground fog in this situation, but airmass
is drier moving in, but low temps in the 40s anticipated and RH
values rising to near 100 pct near dawn support some ground fog
formation. Will not mention it yet in the grids but something to
monitor for later input.

Wed-Thu will see our next 500 mb wave round the west edge of the
500 mb ridge centered over the Ohio Valley and mid atlantic
region with this wave moving into Nebraska then SE SD into
southern MN by 12z Wed. Additional 500 mb short waves follow for
a wet period for areas to our south. For our area will need to
watch for a weaker northern wave coming out from Wyoming into ND
Wednesday which may bring a few showers or t-storms. Severe
weather is not anticipated.

...Friday & Saturday Severe Storm Risk...

There is forecast to be a stronger 500 mb wave that will move in
off the Pacific into Washington and Southern B.C. Thursday and
it movfes into southern Saskatchewan Friday and then moves
northeast into central Manitoba Saturday. Mean enembles from
EC/GFS/Canadian show >70 pct chance where 0-6 km bulk shear and
CAPE >1500 j/kg are present in ND Friday aftn/eve and perhaps
lingering into Saturday. Sfc trough/front moving thru as well
with dew pts from the ensemble mebers showing some support
(mainly from GEFS) of dew points into the low 70s E ND and RRV
by 00z Sat (>55 pct chance). Not as strong of a signal of that
high of dew pts form ECMWF/Canadian and NBM. But we are getting
into the time of the year local crop growth will start to have
an affect on dew pts and thus the higher end values may end up
correct.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 729 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

We have areas of MVFR and spotty IFR cigs in northwest MN and
parts of the RRV as the dry slot and clearing sky try to work
east. Clearing should progress east into MN this morning but
time of clearing out of the lower clouds is subject for
amending. West winds today gusting 25-30 kts in E ND/RRV.
Wraparound stratocu likely to affect Devils Lake basin today and
perhaps GFK. Did put in a tempo for lower end VFR clouds in GFK
this aftn.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle