Rugby, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS63 KBIS 232145
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
345 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop later tonight lingering into the early
  morning. Fog may return again Wednesday evening.

- Temperature gradient remains over the area with highs through
  Friday generally near to below average north and east of the
  Missouri River (teens and 20s) to above average south and west
  of the river (30s and 40s).

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light mixed precipitation
  on Christmas Day, mainly north and east.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the northern
Rockies, with high over Lake Winnipeg southward to central
Minnesota. Upper level analysis places very broad ridge
centered over the Rockies, with west-northwest flow over our
area. Speaking of our area, rather quiet weather remains with a
southeasterly light wind between the two surface systems.

For tonight, southeast winds go light tonight, but with some low
level moisture in place there will be the potential for fog
development as advertised by latest high-res modeling.

On Wednesday, quiet weather remains in place along with the
notable northeast to southwest temperature gradient where areas
northeast of the Missouri River will see highs in the teens and
20s, while far southwest North Dakota may see some low 40s.
Similar temperature patter remains in place through Friday,
though with a very modest warming trend. Fog may also redevelop
Wednesday night per latest guidance, lingering into Christmas
morning.

On Christmas Day, the first in a variety of weak short waves
pass through the area, bringing low precipitation chances (20-30
percent) mainly to northern portions of the area along with the
James River Valley. Temperatures profiles continue to suggest a
mixed bag of precipitation types being possible including snow,
sleet, or freezing rain. With that said, the NBM probability of
seeing even 0.01 inch of freezing rain remains quite low at 20
percent far northwest to 15 percent or less elsewhere.

The next chances for snow come Friday night through Saturday as
a clipper system slides through the area, though chances remain
at around 20 to 40 percent, highest north. Winds will turn
northwest and become gusty during the day on Saturday. With the
cold air pouring in, well below average temperatures expected
for Sunday.

Thereafter temperatures look to warm some, but high question as
to how much because NBM 25th/75th spreads for highs are ranging
around 15 to 20 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon
into the early evening. Overnight, patchy to areas of fog may
develop late this evening, continuing overnight. Have refrained
from entering into any TAF product at this time given the high
question on exact location of the fog development.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS