Minot AFB, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS63 KBIS 230543
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cool and breezy weather pattern to start this week,
  followed by a very gradual warmup, with near daily chances for
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A few showers are moving through the northwest corner of the
state, with additional radar returns in the south central,
although ceilings are higher and haven`t seen any reports of
rain making it to the surface for a bit in this area. Additional
showers are upstream in northeast Montana. Used fresh NBM POPs
through the night and into Monday, otherwise going forecast
looks good.

UPDATE
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Surface low has moved off into far eastern North Dakota and
northern Minnesota, with widespread stratus deck expanding
across virtually the entire forecast area. We did remove LaMoure
and Dickey Counties from the Tornado Watch since the stratus has
moved in and more favorable conditions have shifted east. Still
have widely scattered showers across northern North Dakota, and
can`t rule out a few thunderstorms, although not expecting
anything severe at this point. Freshened up POPs through the
night with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Cold front to continue its advance across the state this
afternoon and evening. Along and ahead of this front will still
be an isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm threat, mainly
east of Highway 83. These areas still have high amounts of at
least elevated instability and high amounts of effective bulk
shear over 50 knots. In the James River Valley, especially
southern portions, clearing skies and weakening cap could
promote more surface based storms. These areas has decent low
level shear, curved hodographs, and effective SRH. STP in these
areas is also elevated up to a 2. If a storm can develop in
these southern areas then all hazards are possible including a
tornado. SPC currently has a Tornado Watch in Dickey and LaMoure
counties until 10 PM CDT to account for this potential. Hail to
the size of golf balls and winds to 70 mph will also be a threat
to any stronger storms that can develop. Behind the front
through the night will see abundant clouds and chances for
showers with a few embedded mainly non severe thunderstorms.
Gusty westerly winds will also be found. Some partial clearing
may be found in the west and central later tonight, with
overnight lows in the 40s west to the 50s east. Patchy fog is
possible tonight, although the elevated winds should limit this.
Wildfire smoke moving in behind the front may also linger
through tonight. Post frontal conditions will be found for
Monday. This will bring continued breezy westerly winds and
cooler temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. There could be a
few showers in the north, with chances for thunderstorms limited
on Monday. Monday night then sees winds diminish and become
southerly. Cool overnight lows mainly in the 40s are expected.
This southerly return flow could bring some showers and
thunderstorm chances in the southwest Monday night. If increased
dewpoints accompany this southerly flow then perhaps some fog is
possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Return flow on Tuesday will warm temperatures back into the 70s.
A few showers and thunderstorms could also be found in the west,
moving central and east Tuesday evening and night. The chance
for severe weather right now looks low. A similar pattern then
looks to set up for Wednesday and Thursday with an east
southeast east surface flow keeping temperatures mild in the
70s. Southwest flow aloft could bring some weak disturbances at
times bringing near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Chances for severe weather still look low at this point,
although some isolated chances are showing up on the CSU-MLP. A
strong westerly flow aloft combined with a more develop surface
low then looks to set up sometime later in the week. Near daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found, while the
CSU-MLP has more widespread isolated chances for severe weather.
Warmer temperatures also looks to be found later in the week
into the weekend. Currently the NBM has highs in the upper 70s
to upper 80s with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. As noted by
the previous shift, these are closer to the 25th percentile. As
a result, it`s very possible a day or two towards the end of
the week will see a return into the 90s for at least some of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings are present across most of the eastern half of
the state. These will generally improve from west to east
through the night tonight, though MVFR ceilings are also
expected at times in the far north. A few showers are possible
in the vicinity of KXWA and KJMS within the next couple to few
hours, although confidence is low in actually seeing
precipitation at either site. Once ceilings and any light
showers clear out, expect VFR ceilings and visibility through
the remainder of the period. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the state Monday morning before diminishing from
west to east during the afternoon hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken