Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

053
FXUS63 KBIS 122339
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
539 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold tonight through Monday morning, with wind chills as
  low as 35 below zero across Northwest and much of central
  North Dakota.

- Quick warmup Wednesday and Thursday, with highs mainly in the
  30s.

- High confidence in a return to well below normal temperatures
  next weekend, with dangerously cold wind chills possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Winds are rapidly diminishing across the forecast area, and as
such, any patchy blowing snow has mostly ended as well.
Westerly to northwesterly winds should remain light at around 5
to 10 mph through the night. Other than winds, made adjustments
to sky cover based on the latest satellite trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

A cold Arctic airmass continues across the state thus leading to
cold temperatures especially across the north. Winds continue
across the state around 20 mph leading to blowing snow across
the Turtle Mountains. Surface high pressure remains in place
across western North Dakota leading to clear skies. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to drop down to 20 below zero up
north to around 5 below down south. Wind will still remain
elevated leading to widespread wind chills around 35 below zero
north and east of the Missouri River. Dangerously cold wind
chills are possible tonight through tomorrow morning. Therefore,
a Cold Wind Advisory has been issued north and east of the
Missouri River.

Monday temperatures will remains cold across the region with
high temperatures around 7 degrees below zero to the lower 20s
in the southwest. An upper level low will continue to move
southward through Minnesota. While an upper level ridge will
continue to progress across the Pacific Northwest leading to
warmer temperatures in the southwest. Isentropic upglide could
lead to some light snow in the southwest with accumulations
around 1 inch. Low temperatures around 20 below zero will
persist Monday night across the eastern and northern half of the
state. Wind chills could drop down to around 30 below across
portions of the northeast.

Temperatures continue to warm west to east Tuesday as the upper
level ridge amplifies across the Pacific Northwest. High
temperatures are forecast to warm around 10 above zero east to
the upper 20s west. Above normal temperatures are forecast to
moves across the state Wednesday as the upper level ridge passes
overhead. High temperatures are forecast to climb above
freezing to the lower 40s. Colder temperatures are forecast to
return later next week as a broad Arctic trough moves through
eastern North Dakota. A clipper may bring 15 percent chance of
snow by Friday. This system will bring another round of cold
temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

There is some MVFR stratus in southeastern North Dakota and the
James River Valley. Generally speaking, this MVFR stratus is
more scattered in nature, though there is a low chance that a
more organized ribbon of sky cover could produce brief BKN
ceilings at KJMS. MVFR/IFR ceilings are also expected to enter
far southwestern ND Monday. There is some question as to whether
or not it will reach the KDIK terminal (with a lower chance of
reaching KXWA) or remain to the west. Beyond these two
exceptions, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to prevail
through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken