Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS63 KBIS 222359
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
559 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for rain or light freezing rain through this
  evening over much of central and western North Dakota.

- Temperature gradient remains over the area with highs through
  the week generally near to below average north and east of
  the Missouri River (teens and 20s) to above average south and
  west of the river (30s and 40s).

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light mixed precipitation
  on Christmas Day, mainly north and east.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Latest radar loop shows most returns exiting from central into
eastern ND at this time. However, there are a few light returns
near Bismarck (probably not much if anything reaching the
ground) and also over far southwest ND (where returns were
decent). Hard to notice anything on the latest WV loop, but
latest Rap40 shows a weak shortwave over southwest ND, which
would account for this activity. The Cams are not picking up on
this activity and in the whole scheme of things, it probably
doesn`t matter much, but we did add some slight chance pops
(broad brushed) through the evening given the temperature
profile is such that it could be a wintry mix of rain, snow or
light freezing rain. Updated text products will be transmitted
shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Current surface analysis places low over west-central South
Dakota with inverted trough stretching northward through western
North Dakota/southeastern Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis
shows westerly flow over our area, with a few waves passing
through.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, mid-level trough
and affiliated warm air advection ahead of it may still lead to
a few spots of very light rain/freezing rain into early this
evening. Cold front now located over south central Saskatchewan
into northeast Montana pushes in later this afternoon/evening,
but latest guidance indicates that the cold air advection with
this should be rather modest with maybe a few breezy periods in
its wake going through tonight.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to stay quiet with modest upper level
ridging. Temperature gradient remains over the area as cold air
remains rather well entrenched over the northeast part of the
state with highs only pushing into the teens, with rather mild
air continuing to push into the southwest, with highs in the 40s
over the far southwest.

Ridge axis pushes east as a few short waves pass through on
Christmas Day into the evening. NBM had bumped up precipitation
chances in this period, but has since backed off a bit leaving
low chances (20-30 percent) over northern and eastern portions
of our area. Really cant argue with this given the low amount of
forcing, and timing is still a ways out to really pin-point
where the best forcing may set up. In addition, temperature
profiles remain right on the cusp of snow/freezing rain chances,
so will continue to advertise possibility of a wintry mix.

Another more notable wave is forecast to make its way through
the area Friday, bringing additional low to medium (20 to 40
percent) chances for precipitation. Again, thermal profile still
remains a bit sketchy so will show a wintry mix for parts of the
area. Quieter weather looks to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A progressive upper level flow and a cold front moving south
through the area will bring mainly sprinkles/flurries to the
forecast area this evening. High pressure will quickly build
over the area overnight, with a southeast return flow spreading
west to east over the area Wednesday. In general expect VFR
conditions southwest. There is an area of MVFR to low VFR clouds
over southern Saskatchewan that will drop south into the
forecast areas tonight but there remains a lot of uncertainty in
how widespread any lower ceilings will be due to a lot of dry
air and how quickly the center of the surface high builds over
the area, for now kept the extent of MVFR ceilings pretty
minimal and will continue to monitor through the evening. Winds
become northwest this evening and may be gusty for a few hours
before diminishing late tonight and turning southeast on
Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH