Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

939
FXUS63 KBIS 102115
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
315 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions with increasing clouds through this evening.

- Slight chance (less than 20%) for an isolated rain or snow
  shower this evening across the north and early Veterans Day
  morning across the southwest.

- An overall cooler than normal Veterans Day with some breezy
  winds across the west expected.

- The next chance for light rain comes Tuesday night through
  early Wednesday.

- Possibly cooler with a chance of rain or snow next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

A weak cold front will continue to push across the CWA through
this evening. Along and behind this front could be some breezy
to perhaps windy winds especially across the north. Sustained
winds could approach advisory level criteria, although
increasing cloud cover should limit wind gusts. Confidence was
not high enough for any wind products at this time. These
stronger winds could linger through the evening before
diminishing overnight. Lower clouds could also move in with this
front. Steep lower level lapse rates could be just enough for a
few isolated rain or snow showers this evening. The low clouds
could then linger through the night for many areas. Perhaps some
fog returns tonight as winds go light. Forecast soundings show
enough mixing and dry air may hold off fog tonight. For now just
place patchy fog in the Turtle Mountain area. Lows tonight will
be cooler behind the front and generally in the 20s. The front
stalls tonight alight could try to lift back north across the
southwest late tonight into Monday morning. This could bring
some light snow in the southwest or perhaps some patchy fog. The
rest of Veterans Day then sees the surface high move east. This
will diminish sky cover and bring some breezy southerly winds
across the west. Cooler air behind today`s cold front will
bring high temperatures in the 40s. The increased southerly
winds could linger through Monday night, with more mild
overnight lows generally near 30 degrees. Although these winds
could stay steady overnight, increasing moisture could bring
some fog Monday night into Tuesday yet confidence was not high
enough to include at this time.

Tuesday then sees warming temperatures in southwest flow ahead
of a trough. Look for highs to return into the 50s. Some breezy
southerly winds could also linger for Tuesday, mainly in the
eastern half of the state. The mentioned trough then moves
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will bring
our next chance of overall light precipitation. Lingering warm
air should provide for mainly rain with this wave. Weak ridging
and zonal flow then looks to be found after this wave and
through much of the end of the work week. This will provide for
continued mild temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Split
flow pattern still be hinted for this weekend. Depending on
where the splits of energy track there still could be chances
for rain and snow at times this weekend. NBM currently still
showing about 20 to 40% chances for the CWA, with a slight favor
towards northern portions of the state. This pattern could
usher in some cooler air. Current NBM forecast showing more
normal to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR conditions will return this afternoon as low clouds and fog
lift across south central and southeastern portions. Breezy
northwest winds may develop behind a weak and dry cold front
this afternoon into this evening. Behind this front could see
low to mid level clouds return to much of the CWA later today
through tonight. Cloud heights could be MVFR to perhaps IFR
levels, although confidence right now is highest in MVFR
heights. Winds also go on a diminishing trend tonight. Clouds
then return to VFR heights Monday, with winds becoming
southerly.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin