Lincoln, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS63 KBIS 102023
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
323 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near surface smoke this afternoon and possibly overnight.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin
  Wednesday, with the greatest chances for precipitation on
  Thursday (60 percent). Chances for showers and thunderstorms
  will continue through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Currently a cold front is sweeping east through the state,
located near the James River Valley. On the backside of the
front, the wildfire smoke from the Canadian forest fires have
mixed down to the surface. The main area for this has been the
northwest where visibilities are down to 4 miles. Everywhere
however is hazy with the scent of wildfire smoke. A surface high
pressure is sitting near Saskatoon Canada. With the clockwise
flow around the high, the smoke is lined up to stream into the
state.

Late tonight a weak little wave, in the otherwise zonal flow,
will move across the Dakotas. This will lead to slight chances
of showers Wednesday morning. Wednesday will also be cooler in
the 70s as the thermal ridge get pushed east. This zonal flow
should also keep most of the wildfire smoke in Canada. Heading
into Thursday, a stronger and slower shortwave will move across
the Dakotas with a weak Colorado Low. There is a 70 percent
chance of showers and a few thunderstorms during the day and
into Friday morning. No severe weather is expected as there is
very low CAPE and temperatures in the lower 60s. Wednesday and
Thursday will also be breezy from a tight pressure gradient as a
low passes through South Dakota.

The rest of the week through this weekend we will see multiple
shortwaves moving in off the mountains in the Western CONUS.
Sunday evening through Monday an Alberta Clipper will dive into
the Dakotas, leading to more widespread chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday looks like a possible severe weather day
in the state as CAPE could be 1000 J/kg or more. However this is
day 7 and things will change. The biggest failure mode for this
is, its not a strong wave and temperatures are in the mid 70s
with dewpoints only in the low 50s. Temperatures through the
forecast will mainly be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR south to MVFR north in the wildfire smoke. Winds in the
north will be gusting around 25kts from the south, then calming
at sunset. Winds in the south be around 10kts. Both with a
northerly wind.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith