Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS63 KFGF 021953
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
253 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour will continue
  in northwest Minnesota through the afternoon and early
  evening.

- Another wave sweeps through Friday with a chance for 2-4
  inches of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...Synopsis...

The very large scale extratropical cyclone continues to spin
around Iowa. A broad swath along an inverted trough continues to
bring bouts of snow across much of northwest Minnesota and
portions of southeast North Dakota. As the low continues to
progress northeastward through the evening and overnight, snow
will diminish in intensity with light snow lingering after
midnight. Snow should come to an end by noon tomorrow at the
latest, but the warnings will likely expire at 7 PM CDT.

As we progress later into the week, a brief quiet day on
Thursday will be replaced by a clipper system Friday. Warm air
advection ahead of the clipper is fairly weak, but frontogenesis
on the backside of the clipper is stout. Lack of moisture return
inhibits QPF totals, but 2-4 inches are a reasonable worst case
scenario for what ends up on the ground.

As we progress through the remainder of the period, modulating
850mb temperatures and upper ridging should keep us fairly quiet
with signals for impacts at a minimum. Temperatures will
rebound, but the question mainly will be how quickly as snowpack
may linger for a day or so after accumulation.

...HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...

A broad swath of synoptic ascent continues across northwest
Minnesota with embedded frontogenesis along an inverted upper
trough. This has contributed to strong organized banding in
northwest Minnesota, where 1 inch per hour rates may be
occurring but has not been confirmed yet. Radar estimates are
pushing 2+ inches, and given the surrounding environment with
instability, this does appear reasonable. The main question at
this point is how long will it last at given points. Right now,
the reasonable upper end for prolonged banding appears to be an
additional 3-5 inches, but for the most part you should expect
generally 1-2 additional inches of snow. As the low progresses
eastward through the evening, synoptic ascent will diminish and
disorganize any banding, it`s just a matter of when at this
point in time. Given lingering uncertainties in end time and
duration of banding, the headlines will remain the same as the
current band lines up well with the Winter Storm Warning.

...ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY...

A clipper will sweep through the region from west to east
Friday. Warm air advection ahead of this clipper is very weak,
so not much in the way of additional accumulating snowfall is
likely from the first portion of this system. Still, at least
some ascent will contribute to light snow showers.

As the cold front pushes through, this one possesses the
greatest lift and thus provides for the strongest precipitation
signal. Forward propagation of a line of snow is expected, and
will likely remain perpendicular to the long axis. For this
reason, significant snowfall accumulations are not expected to
arise. Even if we see the reasonable worst case, which is 4
inches of snow, it is very likely that not all 4 inches will
make it to the surface once again. At least expect some travel
impacts as the cold front sweeps through. Winds associated with
this are very weak so blizzard conditions will likely not
develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

IFR ceilings and MVFR to LIFR ceilings will likely impact all
TAF sites through at least 06z. Snow will reduce visibilities to
LIFR and VLIFR at times in northwest Minnesota, but should not
impact much in the way of North Dakota TAF sites. Ceilings will
improve after 06z but should maintain MVFR through the remainder
of the TAF period. Eventually, as this system exits, VFR
conditions will prevail and this may occur prior to 18z but
confidence is low in timing this out.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ016-
     024-026>030-054.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-
     039-049-052-053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-
     002-005-007-008-013>015.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ003-
     006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux