Bottineau, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

026
FXUS63 KBIS 141139
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
539 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Watch in effect for very windy conditions Thursday
  afternoon through Friday afternoon.

- Light snow showers likely Thursday evening through Friday
  morning. The highest chances (70 to 90 percent) are along and
  east of Highway 83. Significantly reduced visibility is
  possible while snow is falling.

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue
  through Thursday, with more seasonable highs in the east today.

- Friday through this weekend, expect cooler temperatures with
  below average temperatures northeast to near average
  temperatures southwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Updated sky cover over the next few hours to better match the
current positioning of low-level stratus. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The biggest forecast challenge remains High Winds Thursday
afternoon through Friday, along with the potential for
significantly reduced visibility from blowing snow.

Before that, however, expect another day today with well above
average temperatures for the western two thirds of the state
with more seasonable temperatures east. Weak WAA this evening
through tonight could produce light precipitation mainly in the
north central this evening and in the James River Valley
tonight. Precipitation type is uncertain and may be a wintry mix,
though forecast soundings seem to favor freezing rain/drizzle
for the James River Valley. Either way, models tend to keep
measurable precipitation east of the forecast area. Still, will
need to keep an eye on things as it doesn`t take much freezing
rain/drizzle to create issues.

Thursday is when things start to get interesting in regard to
winds. Central Canadian surface low pressure will deepen as it
propagates southeast through Minnesota Thursday and into the
Great Lakes Region Thursday night. Models are in fair agreement
that the low will slow to a crawl as it gradually shifts east
and loses its strongest grip over the forecast area by Friday
evening.

It appears the strongest winds may come across two pushes. The
first would be Thursday afternoon as strong CAA passes through
the area. The second would be Thursday night into Friday
morning with an even stronger CAA push and a modest pressure
bubble. Overall, the EFI remains at .9 to .95 and a shift of
tails of 1 for most of the west and south central, with a value
of .8 to .9 for the rest of the state, except areas east of the
James River Valley. Continue to believe that while a tight
gradient, very good lapse rates, and strong CAA are all progged,
a lack of impressive pressure rises could be the one limiting
factor, or rather, the primary driver of uncertainty in this
case. As such, opted to issue a High Wind Watch for the entire
forecast area from noon CT Thursday through Friday afternoon.
The highest uncertainty in regard to high wind potential
persists for the James River Valley up through the Turtle
Mountains.

Complicating the forecast Thursday evening through Friday
morning is the potential for widespread light snow showers. As
Thursday night begins to enter the CAM wheelhouse, a couple are
already showing potential snow over most parts of the state.
While overall snow totals still are favored to remain light
during any six hour time period, with forecast winds as high as
they are, significantly reduced visibility is quite possible
and could become near-blizzard like as snow is falling.
However, with the lack of snowpack over most of the forecast
area, a lack of blowable snow pretty much anywhere where there
actually is a snowpack, and the light expectation of any snow;
believe the duration of significantly reduced visibility will be
relatively short (couple hours or less) for any particular
location. Either way, depending on how the situation evolves,
believe there is a moderate chance that some form of winter
weather headline will need to be added near the time of, or once
snow begins to develop.

Beyond the day Friday, expect winds to decrease although remain
breezy through the night and for parts of the area on Saturday.
Another windy day is then favored for Sunday before high
pressure encroaches into the area Sunday night into Monday.
Light snow is possible with passing shortwave energy Saturday
night into Sunday morning. One other note is that more
seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through the next
workweek. However, ensemble spreads remain very high for
Saturday through next week. Therefore, the question remains as
to just how cool temperatures will become, or if perhaps they
will even return to above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings are present over western North Dakota. After
the low-level stratus deck previously eroded towards the west
through most of the night, it should now gradually drift
eastwards this morning and afternoon. By this evening, most low-
level stratus should have either eroded or risen to VFR levels.
There is a low chance for snow in the north central this
evening and a low chance for light freezing rain or snow in the
James River Valley overnight. In both cases, any precipitation
is expected to be light and confidence is too low to add to any
TAFs at this time. In addition, models suggest pockets of LLWS
may develop later tonight, mainly after midnight. However, with
winds beginning to increase late tonight and beyond the period
into Thursday morning, suspect the duration and/or coverage of
any LLWS to be limited.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken