Belcourt, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

434
FXUS63 KBIS 131449
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue today, warming to near
  average this weekend into next week.

- Daily low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the upcoming week.

- Severe weather possible Sunday mainly over southwest North
  Dakota, though any given day this weekend into next week could
  produce a few strong to severe storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Weak mid level cyclonic flow over a cooling upslope easterly surface
flow continues to maintain a large expanse of low stratus and
associated fog/mist/drizzle across western and southern North
Dakota. Most of the lingering showers from last night/earlier this
morning have dissipated, but some new shower development is now
noted in northwest North Dakota near the base of a 700 mb trough.
The showers in the northwest are likely to lift into Saskatchewan by
early afternoon, and fog/mist/drizzle should also become less
common. But the low stratus does not appear likely to erode much
through the daytime hours, especially from south central to
southeast North Dakota where afternoon highs may only reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Another low-amplitude shortwave has generated some widely scattered
showers with occasional lightning off the higher terrain of southern
Montana to western South Dakota. Some of this activity may reach
southwest North Dakota around midday, but there is not expected to
be sufficient instability/buoyancy to support any thunderstorms in
our area.

UPDATE
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Showers continue to linger over the area a bit longer than
previously forecast, so have carried isolated showers over much
of our area through the next few hours. Otherwise, going
forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Current surface analysis places low over the Central Rockies
into the Great Basin, with high over Ontario into Northern
Manitoba. Upper level analysis places trough over the Pacific
Northwest, while a short wave moving through our area combined
with moist easterly low level flow continues to produce a few
showers, though these have been dissipating over the past few
hours. A more broad area of showers/storms continue to pass just
to our southeast over northeast South Dakota into far southeast
North Dakota. Over southwestern portions of our area, some fog
is starting to show up given the moist easterly flow.

For today, areas of fog may linger through the morning over
southwest North Dakota with low level moisture in place, with
some patches stretching into south central North Dakota.
Otherwise, any lingering showers over our area should continue
to dissipate in the morning. Upper ridge starts building into
the area, but as we get into tonight, a series of weak waves
lifting up the backside of the ridge push into our area,
bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Instability looks to stay on the low side for us, with greater
severe concerns remaining to our west and south. With that said,
would not be surprised if a storm or two became strong with
small hail/gusty winds over far southwest North Dakota.

Broad ridging continues our area on Saturday, with temperatures
warming. Again, variety of weak waves sliding through the ridge
will bring low to moderate chances for rain showers, possibly a
few storms.

Sunday brings a little more concern severe-wise. Broad ridge
remains over the region with temperatures climbing to around 80
over much of the area. Plenty of moisture remains in place,
resulting in elevated instability, particularly over
southern/western portions of our area. This combines with ample
deep layer shear to possibly result in some thunderstorms
becoming severe during the late day/nighttime hours as a
notable short wave is expected to push into the area flattening
out the ridge.

As we get into the work week, NBM continues to depict daily low
to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms along with seasonal
temperatures. As has been mentioned before, no particular day
is standing out for severe potential, but given this pattern and
time of year can not rule out severe possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Ceilings will continue to gradually lower to IFR/LIFR levels
from southwest to northeast through the forecast period, though
there may be a brief time of improvement this afternoon before
ceilings trend downward again. The exception to this may be
parts of north central North Dakota, including the KMOT
terminal, which may only drop to MVFR levels tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS