Wake Forest, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS62 KRAH 102057
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region from the west late Monday and
push through on Monday night and early Tuesday. Chilly high pressure
will return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

As the upper level ridge axis shifts offshore this afternoon, the
trough behind will bring ample moisture to the region through
Monday. At the surface, a cold front extended along the MS valley
will very slowly progress eastward this evening and overnight. While
it wont pass over the region until later in the day Monday, showers
and storms ahead of the front are expected to move into the NW
Piedmont this afternoon and spread towards the coast through the
evening. While there is no instability this afternoon, nocturnal
destabilization overnight will result in thunderstorms developing
late tonight with the best chance over the Coastal Plain and
Sandhills region. These storms are expected to continue through
Monday much of morning before returning to just showers.

Temperatures in the Triad will barely hit 60 today, while areas
around the Triangle will be in the mid/upper 60s. Portions of the
Coastal Plains and eastern portions of the Sandhills are already in
the upper 60s with some areas reporting low 70s. Not much cooling
overnight with the abundance of cloud coverage and WAA moving into
the region, with lows in the low/mid 50s to low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Sunday...

Mon-Mon night: A convectively-amplified mid-level trough and
tropical moist axis characterized by PWs of 200-300% of normal will
be swept off the South Atlantic coast early Mon. Broadly cyclonic
mid/upr-level flow will otherwise prevail across the srn middle
Atlantic and Carolinas, with steadily lowering PWs amid wnwly flow
and deeply subsident conditions over cntl NC, later Mon-Mon night.

At the surface, in-situ damming will weaken and erode amid
developing downslope flow and CAA through the day, ahead of a lead
cold front that will approach from the northwest and move across
cntl NC Mon night. A secondary, reinforcing cold front will follow
and extend from the Delmarva to lwr OH Valley by 12Z Tue.

After low overcast and patchy drizzle and fog in the morning, skies
will gradually clear from generally west to east, with warming
temperatures into the lwr-mid 70s by afternoon. CAA will favor
cooler, but still above average temperatures in the mid-upr 40s to
lwr-mid 50s Mon night. Regarding precipitation chances, elevated
convection should be in the process of moving across and out of the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain during the morning. While the airmass
will then diurnally destabilize with respect to surface-based
parcels through the afternoon, they will become increasingly-capped
by deep-layer warming and drying; and with a lack of forcing for
ascent at the surface or aloft through the day, afternoon convective
chances will be slim.

Tue-Tue night: In progressive mid/upper-level flow, a ridge will
become highly amplified while progressing from the MS Valley to the
ern US, with deeply subsident and dry conditions over cntl NC.

At the surface, a reinforcing cold front, and leading edge of 1030-
1035 mb, cP high pressure that will migrate across the Great Lakes
and srn QC, will move south across cntl NC on Tue. The high will
ridge swd, with steady pressure rises and CAA over cntl NC, through
Tue night. A following nely breeze and sunny conditions will favor
near average temperatures in the 60s, to near 70 in the south Tue.
While nely stirring may linger Tue night, lessing winds and periods
of calm toward daybreak should allow low temperatures to reach the
lwr-mid 30s north to upr 30s-lwr 40s south, with the potential for
patchy frost over the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

* Low forecast confidence on timing of next chance of rain with
  moderating temperatures into the weekend

There is high degree of confidence in an highly amplified mid/upper
level flow configuration Wed morning, but confidence is low on the
positions/strengths of the respective troughs and ridges. 00z
cluster analysis from the grand-ensemble (combination of GEFS, EPS,
and GEPS) highlights the greatest uncertainty in the timing of the
mid/upper level pattern with secondary uncertainty stemming from the
strength of the trough axis over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
The most likely solution (45% of 100 members) favors a slower
eastward evolution of the mid/upper pattern and a more amplified
trough axis extending down from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley
by Thurs morning.

This solution would increase precipitation chances early Thurs
morning in the Triad and progress eastward through the day before
shifting east and out of the area during the afternoon hours Thurs.
Overall, accumulations appear to be light ranging from trace amounts
to as much as 0.25" in 24 hours (20-25% chance of 0.25" across most
of central NC). It is worth noting that the 00z ECWMF is even slower
than this solution (closer to the second most likely solution from
cluster analysis) and would bring the best chances closer to Thurs
night into early Friday.

Overnight lows will be not as cool Wed night with overcast cloud
cover across the area and should prevent much chance for any frost
potential. Broad high pressure will follow in the wake of this
system into the weekend with slowly moderating temperatures to
around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

MVFR conditions currently at  INT/GSO are expected to continue
through the afternoon. While other sites are currently VFR, expect
low ceilings over the NW Piedmont to spread eastward through the
afternoon and evening. Showers are expected to begin to slowly move
into the region west to east this afternoon resulting in reduced
visibilities with MVFR to IFR conditions this evening and overnight.
As the front moves across the region the showers in the west will
shift east overnight into a more favorable environment for
thunderstorms to develop. Thus, have -TSRA for the latter half of
the TAF period at KFAY and KRWI. Confidence in putting thunder in at
the RDU site was low as better instability in areas along and east
of the I95 corridor. By the end of the TAF period, the NW sites
should be clearing out behind the front returning to VFR while other
sites are expected to stay sub-VFR through at least 17z/18z Monday.

Outlook: Improving conditions is expected Monday evening/night.
Aviation conditions are expected to trend to VFR Tue-Thu with high
pressure building back into the region. Another front will move
through Thursday bringing another round of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...CA