Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS61 KBUF 160002
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
802 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory issued for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego
counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds through Monday.

2) A cold front will bring showers and the potential for severe
thunderstorms Monday.

3) Cold weather returns with a possible round of synoptic snow late
Monday and Monday evening, quickly followed by developing lake
effect snow later Monday night through Tuesday night, with gusty
winds lingering through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong winds through Monday.

Low pressure across the Midwest will deepen as it tracks into the
Great Lakes through tonight. A powerful 70 knot low level jet
will move overhead while the pressure gradient tightens at the
surface. The region will be in a south-southeast, warm advection
set-up with the strongest winds in the low-level jet staying aloft
for most locations. A south-southeast wind and north-northwest
facing slopes will support strong downslope gusty winds along
locations such as the Chautauqua Ridge into southern Erie county
and the northwest slopes of the Tug Hill. Wind gusts up to 60
mph are expected in these locations and High Wind Warnings are
in effect. Strong winds are also expected off the hills of
western New York and the Finger Lakes reaching the foothills of
the Lake Plains tonight, and wind gusts up to 50 mph are
expected. Potential impacts include downed trees and isolated
power outages.

There may be a drop off wind gusts temporarily late tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front, but steepening lapse rates and
pressure rises with the gradually weakening low level jet will
continue to support a period of gusty post-frontal winds. Southwest
wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected across the region, with the
strongest gusts along the Lake Erie shoreline to the Niagara
Frontier Monday through Monday evening. There is a chance that the
Wind Advisory may need to be extended into Monday evening across the
Niagara Frontier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring showers and the potential
for severe thunderstorms Monday.

A strong cold front will move across the region Monday. Ahead of the
front, warm, moist air will be present and instability is expected
to develop through the daytime hours. Though instability is expected
to be weak, favorable shear profiles will support a possible narrow
line of strong to severe convection along the frontal boundary
during the afternoon. The primary hazard will be damaging winds,
although an isolated tornado will be possible. SPC Day Outlook
highlights most of the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes in a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cold weather returns with a possible round of
synoptic snow late Monday and Monday evening, quickly followed by
developing lake effect snow later Monday night through Tuesday
night, with gusty winds lingering through Tuesday.

The progress of the strong cold front will slow late Monday into
Monday evening while also taking on anabatic characteristics. The
deceleration of the front will be owed to a couple of reasons: The
sharpening of the mid and upper trough as it crosses the lower Great
Lakes region in tandem with a developing wave of low pressure riding
north along the eastward-advancing cold front as it moves across
western and north central New York. The combination of these two
factors will support a considerable boost in QPF east of the Genesee
Valley later Monday through the first half of Monday night. With the
front becoming increasingly anabatic, a fair amount of the synoptic
QPF will fall on the cooler side of the front, with a swath of
potentially impactful wet, heavy snow developing across a portion of
the area later Monday through the first half of Monday night.
Confidence in exactly how much snow and the exact location where
this will occur remains low to moderate at this time, specifically
given that the placement and timing of the northward moving wave
will play a key role in when and where this occurs.

A sharply colder airmass will quickly build into the region behind
the cold front Monday night through Tuesday night with 850 mb
temperatures plunging into the -16C to -20C range by Tuesday
morning. Lingering synoptic moisture within the large eastern CONUS
trough combined with steep low level lapse rates and lake-induced
equilibrium levels rising to 7-9 kft right through a saturated DGZ
will be supportive of lake effect snow development from later Monday
night through Tuesday night. An initial W to WSW flow will send lake
bands E to ENE of the lakes later Monday night and Tuesday, before a
subtle shift in the winds to WNW will shift the bands more ESE of
the lakes for Tuesday night. Confidence has increase in impactful
accumulations for the issuance of a Winter weather Advisory for
Jefferson and Lewis Monday night through Tuesday with the w-sw flow
regime and for Oswego counties through Tuesday night to account for
the subtle wnw shift. While accumualations are likely east of lake
Erie during the same time, more uncertainty remains here due to the
ice coverage on the lake. A 35-45 knot low level jet will linger
within the cold advection allowing gusty winds to continue through
the day Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusty SSE winds have already enveloped most of the sites this
evening. Even with gusts of 25-40 kts, winds off the deck are
absolutely screaming. This will result in LLWS at most sites
through the morning with 60-70 kts of a LLJ to work with.

A cold front will cross the region roughly between 15Z and 21Z
with southerly winds veering to southwest behind the front.
Along and ahead of the cold front convective showers with gusty
winds will occur, with a rumble of thunder possible at most
areas east of KBUF. Showers will continue behind the front and
gradually transition toward snow with IFR conditions by late in
the period.

Outlook...

Monday night...IFR in snow; remaining windy.

Tuesday and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with chances for snow east and then
southeast of both lakes. Breezy. Any IFR conditions will be
localized to within lake effect snow bands.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with lingering mainly rain showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will cross the Great Lakes tonight through Monday
night, bringing the return of Gale Force winds. This surface low
will track across the Great Lakes tonight northeast towards
Quebec Monday night with strong south-southeasterly low-level
winds turning southwesterly Monday afternoon. Gale Warnings have
been issued on Lake Erie starting Monday morning and on Lake
Ontario Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Please note, most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ001>006-010>014-020-
     021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NYZ006.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ007-008-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LOZ042.
         Gale Warning from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
         LOZ042-062.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.
         Gale Warning from 11 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/JM/TMA
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...HSK/TMA