Tonawanda Town, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

576
FXUS61 KBUF 230737
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
337 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity will continue today as a ridge of high
pressure brings mostly sunny skies to our region. There will be
little relief to the heat tonight as a very warm and muggy airmass
lingers, with Tuesday again featuring another hot and humid day,
though the retreating surface high will allow for a spotty shower or
thunderstorm to blossom near the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures
will not be as hot for the second half of the week, though it will
remain very muggy with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
possible each day through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heat and humidity will be the story this period as an area of high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will ridge northward over our
region.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will be +21 to +22C, which will be within
the highest temperatures recorded at this level via Buffalo sounding
climatology for the second half of June. The capping
inversion/subsidence from the surface high combined with these
anomalous high 850 hPa temperatures will translate to highs in the
90s for our region, hottest in the Genesee Valley and northern
Finger Lakes, while near the shoreline a still cool lake breeze may
hold temperatures through the 80s today.

A deep dry layer at the top of the boundary layer this afternoon
will likely hold dewpoint points into the lower to mid 70s, which
combined with the hot air temperatures will make for apparent
temperatures 95 to 104F for much of our region. Heat advisories will
continue today. It`s quite possible that a few locations in the
northern Finger Lakes top the 105 degree mark for apparent
temperatures for an hour.

No change to the airmass tonight with southwesterly flow maintaining
muggy conditions and temperatures dropping back only into the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...Heat Advisory Continues Through Tuesday...

One more day of above normal and near record temperatures Tuesday,
though it will be slightly cooler than today due to the southward
retreating upper level ridge and surface high. Even with the
slightly cooler temperatures, heat indices will be in the 90s for
much of western and north central New York. This being said, the
Heat Advisory continues through 6PM Tuesday. Similar to today, the
warmest heat index values will lie across the Genesee Valley and
into the Finger Lakes.

Before getting the reprieve in sultry conditions for the later half
of the week, a cold front extending south from an area of low
pressure riding the top of the ridge, will bring increasing cloud
cover and a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Then the frontal boundary will set up over the New
York/Pennsylvania state line and extend westward towards tech Midwest
Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. With the increasing cloud cover
and now the relief in temperatures Wednesday, the placement of the
boundary will support the more humid air to settle further south
however showers and thunderstorms will continue to remain possible
across the Southern Tier especially in the vicinity of the front.
Also associated with the front, MLCAPE will rise towards 1000 Joules
per kilogram across the 2 inland Southern Tier counties (Allegany
and Cattaraugus counties). Additionally, sounding profiles by
Wednesday afternoon/evening are supporting moist skinny CAPE
profiles with PWAT values up above 1.5 inches and slow and parallel
storm motion, all of which will support heavy rainfall with the
potential for localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active weather will continue throughout the end of the week and into
next weekend as multiple shortwave disturbances pass overtop the
remnants of the upper level ridge now centered over the southeastern
CONUS. Due to the disturbances, each day will have a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.

Of the days in this period, Friday looks to have the more notable
shortwave disturbance to pass across the upper Great Lakes and into
southern Canada towards the lower Great Lakes. As such, a stationary
front that is expected to stall out earlier in the week will lift
northward along with backing low-low level winds ahead of the
shortwave passage. As a result, dewpoint temperatures will increase
in addition to increasing flow aloft, supporting the potential for
more organized convection and a few stronger storms to develop. Will
continue to monitor this period as ensemble and run-to-run spread
still remains high at this time with the details of these small
scale features passing in the synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found, with patches of
fog east of Lake Ontario. Still a several degree spread in
temperature and dewpoints at KART, and with a broken layer of
stratus overhead chances for fog have lowered...but still possible
through 12Z. Will have MVFR visibility for now for KART.

Otherwise VFR flight conditions with a light southwest flow today
and tonight. Light gusts off Lake Erie for the western TAF sites
this afternoon.

Dry tonight with VFR flight conditions expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A low chance for t-storms afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday through Friday...Chance to likely showers and
thunderstorms at times. Mainly VFR, with local/brief restrictions in
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley this early morning will drift to
the southeast states today, while low pressure moves east across
central/northern Ontario and Quebec. The gradient between these two
features will maintain light to moderate southwesterlies today and
tonight with a moderate chop at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

A weak cold front will then move south across the area Tuesday
night, with winds becoming northeast Wednesday through the end of
the week, with a light to moderate chop possible at times. A few
rounds of thunderstorms are possible starting later tomorrow
afternoon and lasting through the end of the week, with locally
higher winds and waves near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A dome of heat will settle upon the Lower Great Lakes this week
with temperatures both daytime and through the night pushing
towards record values. Below are the temperature records for our
three climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Both
Buffalo and Rochester have been keeping temperature records
since 1871, and Watertown has been keeping temperature records
since 1949.

...Date......Maximum Temp(F)....Warm Minimum Temp (F).

Buffalo

...June 23rd......92/1964..........72/1957
...June 24th......92/1949..........72/2013

Rochester

...June 23rd......95/1888..........74/1888
...June 24th......96/1949..........70/2014

Watertown

...June 23rd......91/1975..........71/1957
...June 24th......91/1999..........71/2013

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas
CLIMATE...Thomas