Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

942
FXUS61 KBUF 021902
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of warm fronts will lift northward across our region through
tonight. Rain will continue to expand across our region this with a
few rumbles of thunder along with some mix with snow and sleet.
Ahead an approaching cold front, it will also become milder and
windy tonight and Thursday. Generally dry and seasonable weather
returns on Friday, before another slow moving frontal system arrives
with periods of rain expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
First slug of rain with embedded elevated storms overspreading
western New York this afternoon on the nose of a strong low level
jet. Dynamic cooling allowing for some wet snow and sleet/graupel to
mix in as well.

Warm front currently across the Ohio Valley will continue to lift
northward tonight. This bring the area within the warm sector from
south to north through early tonight. Bulk of the precipitation will
become focused along and east of Lake Ontario for the evening hours.
Through the evening elevated instability will increase across our
region, with MUCAPE values 250 to 500 J/KG. There will be very
little surface based CAPE as the surface cold front approaches the
region tonight, but the quality of elevated instability will bring
the risk for a few elevated storms. Though the overnight timing is
not great for severe storms, there will be a marginal risk due to
the strong low level jet overhead. The greatest risk of stronger
storms will be west of the Genesee Valley.

Southerly winds will ramp up late this afternoon and tonight with a
60 to 70 knot low level jet overhead. Initially a southeast flow
downsloping off the Chautauqua ridge may reach speeds of 50 mph
along the Lake Erie shoreline beginning this evening. Through
tonight as the low level jet strengthens gusts to 50 mph will be
possible for our higher terrain, including the Southern Tier, hills
of Wyoming county, and over to the Bristol Hills. Additionally
tonight the southeast to south flow over the Tug Hill has the
potential to downslope along the northwest face of the Tug Hill,
with gusts up to 50 mph.

The lake plain tonight will be breezy, with southerly gusts 30 to
40 mph.

Thursday, the cold front sweeps through. Widespread showers
Thursday morning, and perhaps a rumble of thunder with the
front. The showers will taper off through the afternoon with the
passage of the cold front, as deeper moisture pushing eastward.
It will remain windy with southwesterly gusts northeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario possibly reaching 45 to 50 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Albeit brief, we will see drier weather return beginning Thursday
night for much of the forecast area which lasts through the day
Friday. The only caveat to this dry forecast will be across the
Southern Tier near the NY/PA line. This is where we might see an an
isolated shower but only low end chances (< 30%) Thursday night as
the front slowly sags southward and then stalls out across the Mid-
Atlantic region. After that...all bets are off for a dry weekend as
it`s looking more and more like we will once again see chances for
rain showers to return.

The stalled cold front across the Mid-Atlantic region returns north
Friday night, and along with deep moisture (Pw values north of 1.2")
streaming northward on the western flank of the 590 dm ridge will
set the stage for another round of unsettle weather this weekend.
The initial slug of showers w/possible embedded storms looks like it
will arrive Friday night. This will occur as a weak wave and the
associated warm front crosses the area as we head into Saturday. As
it crosses, we could see a brief period of lighter (lull) shower
activity or even drizzle late Saturday morning. However...this lull
doesn`t last long as the next wave (low) approaches quickly Saturday
afternoon and then tracks along a mid-level thermal boundary
oriented from SW to NE across the region. As this wave passes by the
region, it will pull the semi-stationary front east along with the
steadier and heavier precipitation as we head into Sunday.

Overall...initial QPF amounts from late Friday night through
Saturday night range from 0.75" to 1.25" for locales east of Lake
Ontario, and also counties found along the immediate south shore of
Lake Ontario. Higher rainfall amounts will potentially be found
south of I-90, with 1.25" to 1.75" possible, and some isolated spots
of up to 2" across the Southern Tier. Given the anticipated or
potential rainfall amounts expected over the area much of Western NY
been placed in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from 12Z Sat
to 12Z Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The active pattern will continue into the long term period with yet
another sfc wave tracking along a slow moving front bringing a round
of at least showers to much of the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
Monday looks like it should be the driest day of the period between
the departing sfc low and front from Sunday, and ahead of the next
system that drops southeast out of Canada and across the Great Lakes
Monday night through the rest of the period. Temperatures may be
cold enough Monday night through Wednesday to support snow
especially during the night time hours and over the higher terrain.

Temperatures for the period will remain below normal for most areas,
especially for Monday and Tuesday behind the passing front on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching warm front will
bring lower cloud ceiling heights as well as a period of rain.
Rain may begin as snow (brief IFR) for areas east of Lake
Ontario, including the KART airfield. Moderate rain at times
along with some embedded thunder may bring brief IFR flight
conditions this afternoon, otherwise widespread MVFR flight
conditions are expected within the rain.

Behind the warm front and the initial area of moisture, rain taper
off this evening for WNY. Any dry weather will be short-lived as
from the west, showers and elevated instability arrive back into our
area generating possible rumbles of thunder in addition to shower
activity.

There will also be gusty winds as a powerful LLJ enters our region.
At 2K feet 50 to 60 knots of flow will be found and LLWS will be
likely for all TAF sites. Additionally it will become gusty at the
surface with the hill tops of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
region possibly gusting to 40 knots at times this evening and
through the night.

Outlook...

Thursday...Restrictions to MVFR/IFR early with rain showers exiting.
Continued windy.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions likely in scattered to
numerous rain showers.

Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong easterly winds will continue on Lake Ontario into this
evening. Winds will turn southeast, then southerly and increase
in speed on the lower Great Lakes tonight as a warm front lifts
through. The strongest winds could be from Ripley to Dunkirk
with some local downslope enhancement which could approach near
gale force.

Winds will become southwesterly and remain elevated behind the
passage of a cold front Thursday. Winds and waves will start
to lower Thursday night as the pressure gradient relaxes,
allowing for small craft conditions to end.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ012>014-019>021-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA