Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

290
FXUS61 KBUF 101727
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and provide mainly dry
weather this afternoon through Wednesday night. A weak cold front
will then bring a chance of a few spotty showers Thursday. A better
chance of rain will arrive later Friday as a warm front approaches
the area. The front will then stall across the southern Great Lakes
Friday night through the weekend, bringing another stretch of
unsettled weather with occasional showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms near the eastern edge of
Lewis County early this afternoon will continue to move east and
away from the area, with dry weather prevailing for the rest of
today. Diurnal cumulus will bring partly sunny skies along and
inland of the lake breeze boundaries, with mostly sunny skies over
and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in expanding stable lake
shadows. It will be quite breezy, especially northeast of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario where winds will gust in the 20-30 mph range
through the rest of the afternoon.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight through
Wednesday, providing a return to dry weather and mainly clear to
partly cloudy skies. It will become quite windy again Wednesday as a
40+ knot low level jet moves across the eastern Great Lakes. Expect
gusts in the 30-40 mph range across the Niagara Frontier where the
low level jet will partially "downslope" off the stable lake dome
over Lake Erie, enhancing downward momentum transfer. Gusts of 20-30
mph will be common elsewhere.

Wednesday night, a weak cold front will begin to drift south out of
southern Ontario and towards the region. This feature will produce a
few showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and
evening across southern Ontario. The leftovers of these showers may
drift into our region Wednesday night with some increase in cloud
cover and a low chance of a spotty shower or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday, an east-west oriented frontal zone will continue to sag
slowly south across the eastern Great Lakes. Large scale forcing
will be displaced well north of the area across Quebec and northern
New England, leaving weak low level convergence and some limited
diurnal instability as the main contributors to rain chances. Expect
a few widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, with the best chance of measurable rain found across
Western NY and the Finger Lakes, and the lowest chances across the
North Country.

The frontal zone will stall just south of the area Thursday night,
then begin to creep back northward as a warm front Friday through
Friday night. Thursday night through Friday morning, forcing and
moisture along the boundary reach a minimum, with mainly dry weather
expected outside of a stray light shower or two. Rain chances will
then begin to increase again later Friday and especially Friday
night as differential temperature advection across the boundary
increases, resulting in strengthening frontogenesis and isentropic
upglide. Thunder chances will remain limited with weak and largely
elevated instability profiles, with a low chance across the southern
portion of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unfortunately, unsettled weather will again be the theme next
weekend as a frontal zone remains stalled from the southern Great
Lakes to southern New England. A slow moving southern stream trough
crossing the Mississippi Valley will maintain a persistent southerly
feed of moisture into and across the frontal zone. A number of low
amplitude mid level shortwaves will move trough the mean WNW Flow
across the Great Lakes, while the low level frontal zone will
provide persistent low level forcing. These features will maintain a
good chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday
through Monday. Rain chances may start to decrease by Tuesday as the
southern stream trough finally reaches the east coast, allowing for
a ridge to build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

Temperatures will remain relatively cool through the weekend as the
eastern Great Lakes likely stays on the cool side of the stalled
frontal zone. A warming trend will begin to develop early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move east
across eastern NY and away from the area this afternoon. Behind this
line, VFR will prevail with diurnal cumulus with VFR bases along and
inland of the lake breeze boundaries. It will be quite breezy,
especially across the Niagara Frontier where gusts will reach 25-30
knots this afternoon.

Tonight through Wednesday, VFR will continue to prevail as high
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. It will become quite windy
again Wednesday, especially across the Niagara Frontier where gusts
may reach or exceed 35 knots, with 15-25 knot gusts elsewhere.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a small chance of a few showers and an
isolated thunderstorm.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly later in the afternoon.

Saturday through Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely and a
slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will continue to produce a light chop on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario into this evening. Southwest winds will become
stronger on Wednesday, with near Small Craft Advisory conditions
developing on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the afternoon and
evening.

West winds will continue to produce choppy conditions on Lake
Ontario Thursday before a weak cold front moves south across the
lakes Thursday night. Light to moderate northeast winds will develop
in the wake of this cold front Friday, and these northeast winds
will continue through next weekend with choppy conditions much of
the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock