Orangetown, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS61 KOKX 041622
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1222 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure remains in place through early Thursday.
Thereafter, multiple areas of low pressure approach and move
near the area going through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure stays in control offshore. South to southwest
flow for all locations going into early this afternoon.
Expecting winds to become gusty along the coast, especially Long
Island by mid to late this afternoon.

Smoke aloft making its way east across the region, now mainly
over Long Island and Southern Connecticut going into early this
afternoon as indicated by visible satellite. Smoke aloft expected
to continue moving east, eventually east of the area by tonight
according to HRRR.

Temperatures were running earlier a few degrees less than
forecast with smoke aloft being more prevalent and mitigating
total sunshine. With smoke aloft moving east, should see more
sun for this afternoon, allowing for temperatures to rebound.

Max temperatures were only slightly adjusted to account for
recent trends. Made Eastern Long Island slightly warmer and
Southwest Connecticut coast slightly cooler. Basically,
southern coastline stays in the 70s while for NYC Metro,
interior and northern parts of Long Island, more 80s can be
expected.

For tonight, high pressure remains offshore but weakens. Sky
conditions initially are mostly clear but an increase in clouds
is expected overnight. Guidance not indicating too much in the
way of low level clouds or fog overnight into early Thursday.
Cloud increase will be upper level clouds. With surface flow
remaining SW and the cloud increase, used consensus of short
term guidance for a relatively warmer solution. Lows tonight
into early Thursday stay in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Thursday, again, slight increase in 850mb temperatures so
warming trend at the surface. However one mitigating factor will
be increasing clouds ahead of low pressure both from the west
and from the south. Still expect highs to get well into 80s
except along coast where highs will be near 80.

Dry conditions continue Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough
structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late
week, for parts of the weekend as well as early next week.

A cold front approaches from the west Thursday through early
Friday. The front then returns back north thereafter and slows
down heading into the weekend. This will become part of another
low pressure system approaching from the southwest. This low`s
associated cold front moves near the area for the first half of
the weekend with additional low pressure development along it.

The low and cold front move east of the area Sunday into Sunday
but another low and associated frontal system move near the area
for early next week.

Mainly dry conditions for Thursday night.

For Long Island and Southeast CT, possible patchy fog and low
level stratus again for late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms more probable Friday through Friday night.
Closer to the coast, thunderstorms mostly slight chance with more
maritime influence.

Highest chances of showers Saturday through Saturday night.
Thunderstorms possible as well, but relatively higher chance away
from the coast.

Chances for showers decrease Sunday into Sunday night but increase
thereafter for early next week.

Think fog will be more prevalent late Friday night into
Saturday morning, have patchy fog for entire area.

For rest of temperatures, another quite warm day forecast Friday
with highs well into the 80s but relatively cooler trend
thereafter for weekend into early next week with daytime highs
more in the 70s. Flow becomes more northerly Sunday and then
more easterly early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore through tonight.

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

Southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon into
early evening with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Winds diminish to
5 kt or less tonight, and may go LGT/VRB, especially away from
NYC terminals.

Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires remains over terminals
through today and shift east of the area tonight. However, low
level visibility will not be impacted.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts up to 20kt this afternoon and early evening may be
occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Possible brief MVFR/IFR east of NYC
terminals late tonight through early Thursday morning in
fog/stratus. SW wind gusts 15-20kt Thursday afternoon into early
evening.

Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Possible brief MVFR/IFR east of NYC terminals early Friday
morning in fog/stratus. SW wind gusts 15-20kt possible in the
afternoon to early evening.

Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of
tstms. Patchy fog early Saturday.

Sunday: Slight chance of a shower. MVFR possible. Otherwise
mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecast, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all
waters through Friday night. Gusts to 20 kt develop each day on
most waters mid to late week. Some occasional 25 kt gusts will
be possible.

Winds remain below SCA thresholds thereafter through the
upcoming weekend. However, with the continued SW fetch, seas
will build on the ocean with the forecast showing some 5 ft
ocean seas for this weekend. So, SCA will be possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Thursday. Thereafter, with an
increasingly humid and warm airmass in place, layer PW gradually
increase. PW values approach 1.5 inches Thursday night and
eventually reach near 1.75 inches Saturday. This will allow for
any thunderstorms to easily produce heavy downpours. This would
lead to potential minor flooding in low lying, urban, and poor
drainage areas with excessive runoff. There is a marginal flood
risk for Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
NYC, Nassau, and Southwestern Suffolk ocean beaches today, and
a moderate risk at the Southeastern Suffolk ocean beaches. A
moderate risk is forecast for Thursday at all the ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>011.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM/MPS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/MET/MPS
MARINE...JM/MET/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff