Orangetown, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

767
FXUS61 KOKX 192334
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
634 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Saturday. A cold front then passes
through Sunday morning, followed by another cold front Sunday night.
High pressure then builds back in for Monday. Another frontal system
looks to impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday with possibly
another for late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

* 45-55 mph gusts still possible through midnight.

High pressure builds in through tonight behind a departing cold
front to the east. With winds shifting westerly and stronger cold
air advection pushing in, sustained winds and gusts are expected to
increase late this afternoon into the evening. Winds at the top of
the mixed layer are progged at around 45-50kt until around midnight,
so still anticipating advisory-level gusts through this time.
No changes to the Wind Advisory which remains in effect until
midnight. Can`t rule out a gust or two to advisory thresholds
for an hour or two thereafter, but winds will diminish during
the late night hours.

Still some showers around into the early evening. Temperatures
fall to freezing this evening for most areas, and closer to
midnight in the city. Some drying should occur, but there may
still be some spots where ice may form. Will allow the evening
shift to assess the need for a Special Weather Statement to
address this. Low temperatures overnight mostly 25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

* Dry this weekend with close to normal temperatures.

A high pressure ridge shifts through the region Saturday afternoon
and keeps us dry through Saturday night. Any precip with weak warm
advection at night should remain well to our north. Saturday`s high
temperatures are expected to be just below normal with Sunday a
little above normal. Sunday will feature more breezy conditions,
particularly in the afternoon and night in association with a
couple of cold front passages and a strengthening pressure gradient.

Another cold front pushes in early on Sunday with a secondary cold
front pushing through Sunday night. No precipitation is anticipated
with these frontal passages, though winds will remain quite gusty
from the W/NW with gusts upwards of 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry conditions are expected on Monday. Precipitation
  returns to the forecast on Tuesday.

* Frigid temperatures in place on Monday become more seasonable by
  mid-week.

The area will remain influenced by a frigid airmass on Monday with
high pressure over the area. Highs Monday will be in the low to
middle 30s. Any gusty NW wind Monday morning lightens up by the
afternoon and begins to shift out of the SW as the high pressure
shifts east. This will bring in a more seasonable airmass for
midweek with highs generally in the low to middle 40s.

Meanwhile, mid-level energy passing well north of the area will
allow for a surface frontal system to impact the area on Tuesday.
Precipitation is expected to move in early Tuesday and may begin as
snow depending on surface temperatures. Marginal surface
temperatures during the day Tuesday may allow for a rain/snow mix
over much of the area in the morning, eventually transitioning to
mainly a light rain for much of the area into the afternoon. A lot
of the precipitation types will depend on the timing of the frontal
system, with an earlier pass-through allowing for more snow than
rain, but either way, QPF and precip intensity look to be light so
any significant impacts are not expected.

The system pushes east as it intensifies on Wednesday, allowing for
high pressure to once again build into the area. Another progressive
shortwave may pass nearby on Christmas Day or Friday, but guidance
is much too variable and inconsistent to hone down any details at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A secondary cold front will sweep through this evening. High
pressure will then build to the south and west later tonight
into Saturday.

VFR. Some lingering rain showers around can bring brief MVFR
conditions. Snow may mix in early tonight, mainly north and
west of NYC.

Strong W winds should follow secondary fropa gusting to
35-40kt through this evening. Winds then diminish after midnight
to W around 10 kt by daybreak Sat.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD may be needed to adjust for end time of gusts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt, shifting NW at night.

Monday: VFR.

Monday night: Chance of light snow after midnight. MVFR cond
likely, IFR possible.

Tuesday: Snow likely with IFR cond at KHPN/KSWF in the morning,
then a rain/snow mix in the afternoon. A rain/snow mix
elsewhere (with MVFR cond likely/IFR possible) should become
all rain in the afternoon. SW winds G20kt.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming NW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through tonight. Once
the warning expires, a SCA will be needed on the ocean waters
through much, if not all of the daytime Saturday whether it be due
to winds or seas. Winds and seas then pick up Saturday night with a
chance of a gust or two reaching 35kt late at night into Sunday
morning. A somewhat better chance of gales then follows on Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. As for the non-ocean waters, SCA conds
are probable through mid-morning Sunday before a drop in wind
speeds. SCA conds then return late Saturday night and continue
through Sunday night.

SCA conditions likely persist on the ocean waters through
Monday morning with some non-ocean waters possibly having SCA
conditions. Any SCA conditions end by Monday evening. SCA conditions
then return Tuesday for all waters with some near gale force gusts
for the ocean possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW