Niagara Falls, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS61 KBUF 222255
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A hot airmass will bring oppressive heat and humidity to our region
through Tuesday, with the hottest temperatures likely occuring
Monday in most areas. Minimal overnight relief is expected with
nighttime temperatures in the mid-70s. Temperatures will not be as
hot for the second half of the week, though it will remain very
muggy with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible each
day through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Latest satellite imagery showing the cloud cover over Central NY and
the eastern Lake Ontario region thinning this evening. Additional
showers and storms failed to develop this afternoon, and dry weather
is expected to prevail areawide through tonight with drying mid
levels and a growing cap beneath the upper level ridge prohibitive
to deep moist convection.

Heat: Heat Advisories are in effect through Tuesday afternoon. With
the building ridge over the region, 500mb heights will climb to
climatological maximum values for late June across western NY based
on the NAEFS and EC. The latest GEFS shows 850mb temps ranging from
19-21 DegC Monday morning at Buffalo, which would be over the daily
max value based on sounding climatology. Monday still looks to be
the hottest day of this heat wave with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s for lower elevations away from the lakeshores. The heat
index will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s in many areas. There is
still some risk that the heat index may reach or exceed 105 (extreme
heat warning criteria) in a corridor from the Genesee Valley and
Rochester into Central NY, but these higher readings will likely be
spotty and brief.

Overnight relief will be minimal as the minT forecasts are in the
mid-70s tonight and Monday night, which are in the territory of
breaking warm low temperature records. One thing to note, latest
forecast soundings suggests quite dry profiles aloft Monday that
could mix down drier air and lower surface dewpoints a few degrees
in the afternoon, helping to prevent even more oppressive
conditions. Additionally, winds gusting 15 to 25 mph across the
Niagara Frontier will provide additional relief from the heat
especially in the Buffalo Metro area with a flow off Lake Erie.
Weaker winds are expected farther east where heat indicies are
expected to be higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...Heat Advisory Continues Through Tuesday...

This pattern with will continue into Tuesday resulting in the third
consecutive day of above normal and near record temperatures across
the region. Tuesday`s temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Monday as the upper level ridge begins to retreat southward, but
still expecting "Feels Like" temperatures in the 90s for most across
western and north-central NY as Heat Advisories continue until 6 PM.
Again, the areas of most concern with the highest heat indicies will
be from Rochester eastward as well as near Dansville in the Genesee
Valley. By late Tuesday afternoon, a cold front extending south from
a low pressure system passing overtop of the ridge will bring
increasing cloud cover and the chance for showers and thunderstorms,
PoPs are around 15-25% at this time.

The frontal boundary from Tuesday evening will position itself near
the PA/NY border and extend westward towards the Midwest for
Wednesday. This will provide some relief across portions of western
NY by keeping the more humid air slight farther south, but showers
and thunderstorms will still be possible across the Southern Tier in
the vicinity of the front Wednesday afternoon. MLCAPE off the latest
GFS brings up to 1000 J/kg across Cattaraugus and Allegany Co with
relatively weak shear. However, moist skinny CAPE profiles, PW
values climbing above 1.5", and slow storm motions parallel to the
boundary will support heavy rainfall and the potential for localized
flooding, especially in complex terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This active pattern will continue late this week into next weekend
with multiple shortwaves passing in the flow overtop of what remains
of the upper level ridge now in the southeast CONUS that brought
warm temperatures early in the week. This will be accompanied with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday. At this time, the most notable shortwave passes across the
upper Great Lakes and to our north in Canada on Friday. The
stationary front expected to stall earlier in the week across the
Southern Tier will begin to lift north with backing low-level winds
ahead of the shortwave increasing dewpoints across western NY to
around 70. Additionally, increased flow aloft will elongate shear
profiles supporting more organized convection and the potential for
stronger storms to develop. Will continue to monitor this period as
ensemble and run-to-run spread still remains high at this time with
the details of these small scale features passing in the synoptic
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this evening areawide with a few VFR
level clouds lingering over Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Overnight, expect patchy fog to develop east of Lake Ontario
where significant rain fell early this morning, and winds will be
lightest. This will bring areas of IFR VSBY, some of which may
impact KART.

The fog will burn off after sunrise Monday, with a strong ridge of
high pressure supporting mainly clear skies and VFR for the rest of
the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance for t-storms afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday through Friday...Chance to likely showers and
thunderstorms at times. Mainly VFR, with local/brief restrictions in
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley tonight will drift into the
southeast states through Tuesday, while low pressure moves east
across central/northern Ontario and Quebec. The gradient between
these two features will maintain light to moderate southwesterlies
tonight through Tuesday with a moderate chop at times on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario.

A weak cold front will then move south across the area Tuesday
night, with winds becoming northeast Wednesday through the end of
the week, with a light to moderate chop possible at times. A few
rounds of thunderstorms are possible starting later Tuesday
afternoon and lasting through the end of the week, with locally
higher winds and waves near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A dome of heat will settle upon the Lower Great Lakes this week
with temperatures both daytime and through the night pushing
towards record values. Below are the temperature records for our
three climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Both
Buffalo and Rochester have been keeping temperature records
since 1871, and Watertown has been keeping temperature records
since 1949.

...Date......Maximum Temp(F)....Warm Minimum Temp (F).

Buffalo

...June 22nd......92/1957
...June 23rd......92/1964..........72/1957
...June 24th......92/1949..........72/2013

Rochester

...June 22nd......93/2022
...June 23rd......95/1888..........74/1888
...June 24th......96/1949..........70/2014

Watertown

...June 22nd......89/2020
...June 23rd......91/1975..........71/1957
...June 24th......91/1999..........71/2013

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Brothers/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Thomas