Niagara Falls, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS61 KBUF 231753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lingering over our region this afternoon will maintain
overcast skies with patches drizzle, along with low clouds and fog
before a cold front passes through the Lower Great Lakes this
evening with Tug Hill Plateau snow, and lower elevation rain and
snow east of Lake Ontario. Gusty northwest winds tonight, especially
along the southern and eastern shoreline of Lake Ontario. It will be
mainly dry Christmas Eve, and through Christmas Day, though a
southern Canadian system may brush by the North Country with light
snow through the morning hours of Christmas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front has pushed northward into WNY this afternoon with
temperatures mainly near or just above the freezing mark. Light
morning snow has transitioned to areas of drizzle, and higher
terrain low clouds and fog this afternoon.

A shortwave trough will pass southeastward across Canada and the
North Country of NYS tonight, and this feature will cool the air
column such that precipitation concern will turn back to
accumulating snow east of Lake Ontario, especially the higher
terrain where several inches of snow will accumulate.

A tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with strong cold air
advection behind a cold front will bring a gusty northwest wind
tonight, especially along the southern and eastern shoreline of Lake
Ontario where gusts could reach upward to 45 mph. Northwest gusts 30
to 40 mph elsewhere through daybreak Wednesday...when the core of
the LLJ shifts southeast of the region, and cold air advection
tapers down behind the shortwave.

A strong ridge of surface high pressure will drop across our region
tomorrow with fair weather, that may last right through the night
hours of Christmas Eve. There is a strong northern branch shortwave
trough again bearing down upon Ontario Canada to the north Country
of NYS that may bring light snow to the North Country by Christmas
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry weather will prevail for Christmas Day through Christmas
night with good travel conditions across the region. A backdoor
cold front will move south across the eastern Great Lakes and New
England, but this surface front will have no mid level support or
moisture to work with, so should come through the area dry.

More active weather returns Friday through Friday night. A Pacific
shortwave will move southeast across the Great Lakes, with an
associated surface low moving across the southern Great Lakes. There
remains some differences in model and ensemble guidance with the
track and strength of this system, which will have important
implications on precipitation types and amount.

Friday should start dry, with precipitation then spreading from west
to east across the area through the day and evening. If the farther
north and stronger solutions verify, snow would change to a wintry
mix of sleet and freezing rain over Western NY, possibly ending as
some rain. If the weaker and farther south solutions verify,
precipitation type would stay all snow. The weakest of solutions
would largely miss our area. Given the uncertainty, the forecast
remains close to the NBM forecast which incorporates a large range
of model and ensemble solutions. The most likely outcome would
suggest some travel impacts are likely, with at least some snow
accumulation and potentially some ice across Western NY. Greatest
impacts would be Friday afternoon and evening. Expect further
adjustments as the track and intensity of the system become more
clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The trough and low pressure system will move off the east coast
Saturday morning, with any lingering snow showers east of Lake
Ontario ending. High pressure will then build into the eastern Great
Lakes with a brief period of mainly dry weather Saturday through
most of Saturday night.

The pattern turns active again Sunday through early next week as a
powerful trough digs across Ontario and the Great Lakes Sunday,
evolving into a closed low over Quebec by Monday. A strong cold
front will sweep east across the area late Sunday. The cold front
will bring a period of rain (possibly starting as a wintry mix for
the North Country) on Sunday.

Following the cold front, it will become very windy Sunday night
through Monday and accumulating lake effect snow will likely
develop downwind of the Great Lakes. Wind gusts may exceed 40 mph
during this period. Early indications suggest most of the lake
effect snow will be east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on westerly
flow Sunday night through Monday, possibly ending with some
northwest flow lake effect Tuesday. This system is still 6 days out,
so its far too early to predict lake effect snow intensity and the
finer details of band placement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS a warm front has lifted into WNY, with plenty of
low level moisture yielding higher terrain LIFR flight conditions,
and patches of drizzle across WNY bringing IFR visibilities and MVFR
ceiling heights.

MVFR ceiling heights, and higher terrain IFR will be the rule
through tonight. A cold front swinging across the TAF region tonight
may bring modest flight level improvements after 06Z...with this
cold front also bringing a period of rain and snow...and higher
terrain all snow east of Lake Ontario. This will bring flight
restrictions at times to IFR for KART through the late evening
hours.

Additionally behind this cold front a gusty northwest wind will
develop, peaking between 06 and 12Z. Gusts to near 40 knots along
the immediate southern shoreline of Lake Ontario...with gusts 25
to 30 knots or higher elsewhere.

The final 6 hours of this TAF cycle will feature MVFR flight
conditions improving slowly to VFR as surface high pressure and its
associated drier airmass begins to filter into our region.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...improving to VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR in chance of snow east of Lake
Ontario.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain. Changing to snow with a westerly breeze
at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass well north of the area this evening through
tonight, bringing another period of stronger winds and high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
through early Wednesday, highest on Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will cross the Lakes Wednesday, ending the
stronger winds and relaxing the waves through the day.

Fair boating conditions resume through Thursday night when a
strengthening northern wind brings possible higher waves along the
eastern...then western waters of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10
         AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas