Islip, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS61 KOKX 131759
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1259 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring the relatively mild spell of weather to
an end by Thursday. Single digits wind chills are expected Thursday
night.

2) A disorganized series of frontal systems move over the area
this weekend which may result in chances of light snow or rain
with a much colder airmass building over the area through early
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Above average temperatures for this time of year will continue
through Wednesday, followed by a change to colder and more typical
temperatures for mid January for later this week.

Ahead of the front, chances for rain showers will increase from
northwest to southeast into Wednesday evening. Following the
frontal passage, strong cold advection will allow a change over
from rain to a snow mix or perhaps even snow across the
interior. These showers will quickly end by afternoon as dry
advection takes place behind the front. Accumulations of any
snow is expected to be minimal.

Note that because of the strength of the cold front, a non-
diurnal temperature trend will occur Thursday, with the daytime
high expected in the morning, followed by lowering or near
steady temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Wind chills
should get down into the single digits for the most part region
wide.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Brief high pressure on Friday gives way to a digging trough west of
the area with multiple pieces of mid-level energy rotating through
it. These will result in a relatively weak, disorganized, and
complex area of low pressure over much of the Northeast through this
weekend and into early next week. As the several weak systems move
through the area, chances of light snow or initially rain closer to
the coast will be possible Saturday through Sunday evening. If it
occurs, as PoPs only indicate a slight chance (20%) of
precipitation, it will be light in intensity and disorganized.

By Monday, a more robust area of mid-level energy sweeps through
allowing in a more significant low pressure intensification as it
develops and moves to the northeast of the area. This is not
anticipated to impact the CWA in any meaningful way with respect to
sensible weather.

The most significant part of this pattern will be the rapid change
in airmass that maintains over the area into next week. Temperatures
on Saturday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 30s and low
40s. By Sunday, high temperatures will be below average, only in the
low 30s with colder temperatures anticipated for early next week.
Highs by Tuesday will only be in the 20s. Wind chills by Monday
night may be in the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Offshore high pressure gives way to an approaching area of low
pressure through tonight. Its associated cold front approaches from
the west Wednesday.

Conditions throughout the TAF period will remain mainly VFR. Only
exception would be some possible brief MVFR with isolated to
scattered rain showers moving across parts of the region late in the
TAF period as the cold front approaches.

Winds will be SW at 5 to 10 kt this afternoon increasing to 10 to 15
kt overnight. There is potential for some occasional gusts up to 20
kt late this afternoon into tonight as a low level jet develops from
the SW. SW winds near 40 kt at 2 kft will present low level wind
shear tonight for most terminals. Winds shift more to the S
Wednesday, but may be after 18Z for the metro terminals.


  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Isolated MVFR possible late tonight into early Wednesday with rain
showers, mainly for KJFK and KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: VFR, becoming MVFR late at night with rain showers
developing.

Thursday: Slight chance light rain/snow early with MVFR or
lower possible. Otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15 to around 20 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower at times with slight
chance of rain and/or snow.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in isolated snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds are expected to increase into tonight ahead of
an approaching low pressure system, bringing a subsequent
increase in seas. Small craft conditions will develop on the
ocean waters, south shore bays, and far eastern portions of the
LI sound. Conditions will improve late Wednesday as a cold front
begins to move through the waters, but seas on the eastern ocean
waters may be slower to subside. Winds will then be gusty into
Thu following the frontal passage.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters by Friday
with perhaps a lull in SCA-threshold criteria during the day. By
Friday night, more widespread SCA conditions are likely on the ocean
waters with gusts to 30kt and waves 5-7 feet. Though wind relaxes on
Saturday, elevated wave heights will maintain SCA criteria on the
ocean for Saturday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX Doppler Radar is out of service.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ332-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MD/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MD/MW