Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS61 KBUF 030215
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1015 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of frontal boundaries will move across across our
region through Thursday, causing several rounds of rain showers.
A few rumbles of thunder are also possible tonight, along with
windy conditions tonight and Thursday. Generally dry and
seasonable weather returns on Friday, before another slow moving
frontal system arrives with periods of rain expected this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure tracking across Lake Superior overnight will push
a warm front across the area tonight, followed by a cold front
during Thursday. A slug of rain along the leading edge of a
60-70 knot LLJ ahead of the surface warm front will lift further
northward late this evening, providing a brief break in the
precipitation for Western NY during the middle of the night.
There may be some localized sleet or freezing rain across the
North Country which will turn over to all rain overnight.

Elevated instability will increase overnight across our region,
with MUCAPE values 250 to 500 J/KG. There will be very little
surface based CAPE as the surface cold front approaches the
region tonight, but the quality of elevated instability will
bring the risk for a few elevated storms. Though the overnight
timing is not great for severe storms, there will be a marginal
risk due to the strong low level jet overhead and the momentum
from the approaching line of storms. The greatest risk of
stronger storms will be west of the Genesee Valley.

Southerly winds will be gusty at times, with strongest gusts
likely to occur between rounds of precipitation. Gusts will
reach 50 to 55 mph from downsloping off the Chautauqua Ridge,
and across higher terrain. Additionally tonight the southeast
to south flow over the Tug Hill has the potential to downslope
along the northwest face of the Tug Hill, with gusts up to 50
mph. Lower elevations including the lake plains will be breezy
with southerly gusts 30 to 40 mph.

Thursday, the cold front sweeps through. Widespread showers
Thursday morning, and perhaps a rumble of thunder with the
front. The showers will taper off through the afternoon with the
passage of the cold front, as deeper moisture pushing eastward.
It will remain windy with southwesterly gusts northeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario possibly reaching 45 to 50 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Albeit brief, we will see drier weather return beginning Thursday
night for much of the forecast area which lasts through the day
Friday. The only caveat to this dry forecast will be across the
Southern Tier near the NY/PA line. This is where we might see an an
isolated shower but only low end chances (< 30%) Thursday night as
the front slowly sags southward and then stalls out across the Mid-
Atlantic region. After that...all bets are off for a dry weekend as
it`s looking more and more like we will once again see chances for
rain showers to return.

The stalled cold front across the Mid-Atlantic region returns north
Friday night, and along with deep moisture (Pw values north of 1.2")
streaming northward on the western flank of the 590 dm ridge will
set the stage for another round of unsettle weather this weekend.
The initial slug of showers w/possible embedded storms looks like it
will arrive Friday night. This will occur as a weak wave and the
associated warm front crosses the area as we head into Saturday. As
it crosses, we could see a brief period of lighter (lull) shower
activity or even drizzle late Saturday morning. However...this lull
doesn`t last long as the next wave (low) approaches quickly Saturday
afternoon and then tracks along a mid-level thermal boundary
oriented from SW to NE across the region. As this wave passes by the
region, it will pull the semi-stationary front east along with the
steadier and heavier precipitation as we head into Sunday.

Overall...initial QPF amounts from late Friday night through
Saturday night range from 0.75" to 1.25" for locales east of Lake
Ontario, and also counties found along the immediate south shore of
Lake Ontario. Higher rainfall amounts will potentially be found
south of I-90, with 1.25" to 1.75" possible, and some isolated spots
of up to 2" across the Southern Tier. Given the anticipated or
potential rainfall amounts expected over the area much of Western NY
been placed in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from 12Z Sat
to 12Z Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The active pattern will continue into the long term period with yet
another sfc wave tracking along a slow moving front bringing a round
of at least showers to much of the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
Monday looks like it should be the driest day of the period between
the departing sfc low and front from Sunday, and ahead of the next
system that drops southeast out of Canada and across the Great Lakes
Monday night through the rest of the period. Temperatures may be
cold enough Monday night through Wednesday to support snow
especially during the night time hours and over the higher terrain.

Temperatures for the period will remain below normal for most areas,
especially for Monday and Tuesday behind the passing front on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There will be a brief break for Western NY until the next line
of steady showers tstms move in after 06Z. Again, these may
cause periods of MVFR flight conditions although impacts at any
given airport will be less than an hour. There`s a marginal
(very small chance) for strong storms with gusty winds as the
leading edge of this line moves through.

There will also be gusty winds as a powerful LLJ enters our
region. At 2K feet 50 to 60 knots of flow will be found and LLWS
will be likely for all TAF sites. TAF sites will have gusts 25
to 35 kts.

Areas of MVFR in cigs and vsby Thursday morning will improve
during the afternoon hours, with a partial clearing. It will be
windy with southwest gusts to 35 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions likely in scattered to
numerous rain showers.

Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong easterly winds will turn southeast, then southerly and
increase in speed on the lower Great Lakes overnight as a warm
front lifts through. The strongest winds could be from Ripley to
Dunkirk with some local downslope enhancement which could
approach near gale force.

Winds will become southwesterly and remain elevated behind the
passage of a cold front Thursday. Winds and waves will start
to lower Thursday night as the pressure gradient relaxes,
allowing for small craft conditions to end.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ007-008.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ012>014-019>021-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/Thomas/TMA