Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

413
FXUS61 KBUF 082203
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
603 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level disturbance will bring increasing south to north shower
chances tonight, along with the possibility for a rumble of thunder
to the Southern Tier through the evening hours, with rain shower
activity lingering across our region overnight. While this
convective activity should remain tame through tonight, it will
increase the moisture in the lower levels with a bit of humidity
around the area to start Monday. Later Monday numerous showers and
thunderstorms, of which some may produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, will blossom through the afternoon hours, with these
drenching thunderstorms remaining through the overnight hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery displays two features of note for this forecast
period. The first, a mid level shortwave that is ushering in the
south to north rain shower chances across the area this evening,
lingering through the overnight.

The second feature on satellite imagery is a mid level low over the
western Great Lakes, with several shortwave troughs streaming around
the feature. This system will impact our weather for Monday and
Monday night, as added moisture and strengthening shear profiles
brings the potential for thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and
locally very heavy downpours of rain.

For tonight and early Monday morning, marginal instability will
bring a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms (mainly toward the
NY/PA line), but weak shear profiles will keep these storms garden
variety. Will keep chance to low likely PoPs through tonight with a
warm front nearing our region, with dewpoints and eventually later
instability increasing behind the front.

For Monday afternoon and evening, several factors are coming
together for potentially active time period. A belt of southerly
flow of 50 knots across far WNY will lie under the front entrance
region of an upper level jet that is rounding a deepening mid level
low over the central Great Lakes. Height falls and diffluent flow
will aid in broad scale lift. In the lower atmosphere, MUCAPE values
continue to trend upwards, with over a 1000 J/KG of instability over
portions of our region Monday afternoon and evening. The axis of a
+1SD PWAT anomaly will lie over our region tomorrow afternoon and
evening, that with a boundary layer flow becoming parallel to an
approaching cold front will encourage training cells. While the
threat for damaging winds from severe thunderstorms will be mainly
concentrated from the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region westward
through the afternoon and early evening hours, the threat for
locally heavy rainfall will impact our entire region with basin
average inch or greater rainfall amounts likely from the mid to late
afternoon/early evening through the overnight hours.

Convection ends from west to east Monday night, with patchy fog
lingering through the night as low level moisture hangs around, and
air temperatures cool to near the dewpoint.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level low over the Great Lakes will lift east/northeast into
Canada on Tuesday. This will allow the cold front to continue to
slowly exit off to our east. The threat will exist for an additional
round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, inland from the
lakes and areas east of the I-81 corridor. A somewhat cooler day is
expected along with breezier conditions, especially downwind of Lake
Erie.

The mid-level trough exits off into New England by Wednesday, but we
still could see a few showers across the North Country in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave trough moving southeast across Ontario will drag a cold
front into the area Thursday with a chance of showers or a
thunderstorm. Will be monitoring the potential for this front to
stall out over the area and its influence on our weather for the end
of the week and into the weekend. Where this front ends up will
determine the threat for additional showers and thunderstorms
through this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly light shower activity associated with a id level disturbance
will slowly advance northeast across our region tonight, with a few
embedded brief heavier downpours possible, along with a rumble of
thunder possible across the Southern Tier. Otherwise, ceiling
heights will lower to MVFR, and possibly IFR in the Southern Tier.

A warm front will linger a few showers towards daybreak, especially
from the Genesee Valley eastward.

The final 6 hours of the TAF cycle will be mainly quiet, with early
morning showers diminishing, and some improvement in ceiling
heights. Convection ahead of a cold front will be approaching our
region, possibly reaching KJHW/KBUF/KIAG the final hour or two of
the TAF cycle. The bulk of this convection will occur after 18Z,
with widespread rain and thunderstorms featuring the potential for
locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Flight conditions will
lower to IFR, and possibly LIFR in heavier storms.

Outlook...

Monday night...Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to
start the period with LIFR/IFR flight conditions. Activity ends from
west to east overnight, with patches of fog lingering through
the night.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Likely VFR and dry for KBUF/KIAG.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers east of Lake
Ontario.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a few showers and
thunderstorms around.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast flow will strengthen this evening between departing
surface high pressure over the lower Saint Lawrence Valley, and an
area of low pressure approaching the lower Great Lakes from the
west. This southeast flow, possibly over 15 knots at times tonight
on Lake Ontario will produce a modest chop on the waters.

Winds will veer to more southwesterly through the day Monday and
remaining through Tuesday behind a cold front that will cross the
lower Great Lakes Monday evening. As a pool of cool air associated
with the mid level low passes over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday and
Tuesday night, a modest chop will again develop on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/Thomas
NEAR TERM...JM/Thomas
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/Thomas
MARINE...JM/Thomas