Brentwood, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS61 KOKX 232330
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacting the area moves east tonight as
offshore low pressure develops. The low will move farther out
into the Atlantic on Wednesday, then high pressure will build
from the west Wednesday night. Weak low pressure will pass to
the southwest while a cold front moves through on Christmas Day,
with high pressure briefly returning at night. Another low will
pass to the south from Friday into Saturday, followed by
another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Black ice likely tonight as temperatures cool off and
  dewpoints remain fairly high.

Precip ends this evening as temps very slowly cool down to the
lower/mid 30s, while dewpoints remain fairly high, in the upper
20s/lower 30s. This may help promote black ice development in
areas of standing water/slush across NE NJ, the lower Hudson
Valley, and S CT, perhaps also in/near the Pine Barrens region
of central Suffolk.

Stronger west winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph overnight across
all but interior S CT as the offshore low develops and tightens
the pressure gradient may lead to some drying overnight, but it
remains uncertain how much this may limit the black ice
potential if at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wed will be brisk and colder, with a NW wind increasing to
20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph in the morning and early
afternoon via the pressure gradient between the offshore low
and its inverted sfc trough extending back to the ern New
England coast, and high pressure building from the west. Winds
should diminish fairly quickly later Wed afternoon into the
evening as the high builds in. High temps in the lower 40s will
be near the seasonal norm. Better radiational cooling conditions
Wed night from combo of clear skies for the first half of the
night, with lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Temps may remain
steady or slowly rise late at night as winds back WSW and as
clouds ahead of an approaching/weakening shortwave trough move
in.

Christmas Day looks mainly dry. With the weakening shortwave
trough grazing the area and a cold front moving through, there
is a slight chance for a brief morning rain/snow shower across
Long Island, NYC, and areas just west. Highs will once again be
in the lower 40s. Winds shift from SW to NW in the afternoon
with the cold fropa, with the main push of colder air coming at
night. Low temps Thu night will range from the lower 20s in the
NYC metro area and surrounding suburbs, to the teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
What`s Changed: Confidence is increasing in a period of
accumulating snowfall from late Friday into Saturday.

Key Points:

* An accumulating snowfall is becoming more probable Friday
  afternoon into Saturday.

* Chances for light snow or wintry mix changing to rain Sunday
  into early Monday.

A series of disturbances will impact the region, resulting in a
period of unsettled weather. Global models and their associated
ensemble systems continue to highlight weak upper ridging over
the Northeast with a shortwave quickly passing through late
Friday into Saturday. Brief upper ridging then builds in Sunday
before a stronger closed low approaches the northeast into early
next week.

At the surface, a cold high pressure centered over Quebec heads
to the east as a surface low traverses the OH Valley, through
PA and generally south of the local forecast area by 12Z
Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty on the storm
track with this system, and the ultimate track will determine
both precipitation types (rain/snow) and accumulations. Thus the
consensus approach was taken for this update, given we are 4-5
days out.

Given the model consensus has the local area on the north side
of the system, with cold air already in place via the
departing surface high, thermal profiles are suggestive of a
period of decent snow growth from late Friday into early
Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing
appears from NYC on south by 06Z Saturday. Model QPF has trended
down bit with the 12Z guidance suite, with a widespread 0.5" to
1.0" across the area (NBM near 0.3- 0.7" on average), with
highest amounts from NYC on west and south There does appear to
be a moisture connection to the system currently heading toward
the West Coast, with PWATs of 0.5" - 1.0" inbound by late
Friday.

All said, this should translate into an advisory level snowfall
(3+") for much of the CWA Friday into Saturday, with a chance of
warning criteria snow (6+") especially north and west of NYC.
This would occur where any banding can set up for a period of
time. NBM probabilities for these amounts (50-70% advisory, and
20-30% warning level) have also ticked up the past few runs. So,
given the current progged track of the system, NE NJ, NYC, the
Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT seem most likely for a warning
level snowfall, though again, probabilities remain around
20-30%.

Thereafter, low pressure with a cold front quickly approaches on
Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track northwest,
well inland of the region, with the precipitation being mainly a
snow/rain/ice mix, particularly for LoHud and interior S CT
Saturday evening. The winter precipitation will then go over
to all rain for a time Sunday. Dry weather looks to then return
late Monday after the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a warm front pushes through this evening, a cold front then
pushes through later tonight. Low pressure moves off the coast on
Wed, with high pressure building into the region Wed night.

MVFR/IFR for most terminals this evening, then becoming VFR as
ceilings continue to gradually increase. After light and at times
variable winds early, the winds become west, then northwesterly
towards daybreak. The wind speeds pick up into the morning push and
by 12z-13z expect winds sustained 15-20g25-30kt with these wind
speeds continuing through 18-19z Wed with some gusts peaking to
around 35 kt. The winds diminish towards 21-22z with light winds
into the evening. VFR prevails Wed and Wed eve.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible with improving conditions through 06z. No
amendments expected during the day Wed.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR. Winds diminish quickly for the evening, with
mainly calm winds overnight.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR in the morning, becoming IFR w/snow later in the
afternoon and evening. IFR in snow likely Friday night.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR with AM snow. Improving to VFR by afternoon.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Upgraded gale watch to gale warning for the ocean waters for
daytime Wed, with NW flow gusting to 35 kt, and seas peaking at
5-8 ft Wed morning. Prior to that, SCA remains in effect there
for tonight, with W flow gusting to 30 kt and seas building to
4-7 ft mainly after midnight. On the non ocean waters, SCA also
remains in effect, with start time after midnight tonight and
also running into daytime Wed, for NW winds gusting to 30 kt.

Conditions quickly subside late Wed afternoon into Wed evening
as high pressure builds from the west.

SCA cond should return to the ocean waters after a cold frontal
passage Thu afternoon and continue into Thu night, with NW flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. The non ocean waters lay
also see gusts to 25-30 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening.
Some 5-ft seas may linger on the outer ocean waters Fri morning.

Another low will pass near the waters Fri-Sat with SCA conditions
developing on the ocean waters Fri night, and continuing into Sat.
Wind gusts/seas fall below advisory levels Sat evening as high
pressure briefly builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing E flow Fri night into Sat will lead to higher total
water levels during that time. Moon phase will be at first
quarter so astronomical tides will not be as great a contributor
as with a full/new moon, and raw model guidance at that time
range falls well short of flood thresholds. Adding an additional
1/2 ft to account for model tendency to play catch-up at longer
lead times results in water levels getting close to but still
remaining below minor flood thresholds with the high tide cycles
late Fri night and Sat afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...