Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

385
FXUS61 KBUF 251808
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted the forecast to reflect a later end time for showers
across the Finger Lakes region this evening.

Maximum temperatures were raised a few degrees tomorrow
(Sunday) and Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Steady showers will taper off across western and central NY
through this evening.

2) Unsettled weather is expected to return to the area mid to late
week, with multiple chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Steady showers will taper off across western and
central NY through this evening.

GOES water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough traversing the
central Great Lakes today. Low pressure centered over western
Pennsylvania this afternoon will continue moving southeast toward
the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight. The strongest forcing for
ascent and PWATS values greater than 0.8" are located ahead of the
trough axis and northeast of the surface low. A demarcation line
between drier air and subsidence and moderate rain extends from
northeastern Lake Ontario to the Albany Metro. Aside from a subtle
shift in showers moving into southern Jefferson and Lewis counties,
dry weather will persist across the Saint Lawrence Valley/North
Country through tonight.

Moderate showers will taper off from northwest to southeast across
the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region this evening. Due to
lingering low-level moisture, slowed down the end time of
showers across the Finger Lakes region.

Showers have tapered off across far western NY as forcing moves east
and mid to high level drier air moves into the region. Low clouds
and patchy fog are expected to linger across the region tonight.

Observed rainfall amounts have ranged from 0.5-1.30" through 2PM.
The greatest amounts are along an axis from the Niagara Frontier to
the Finger Lakes region. Additional rainfall amounts of up to three
tenths of an inch are expected through 8PM. The flood risk remains
low, however many rivers are steadily increasing this afternoon.
Local ponding is possible in poor drainage areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather is expected to return to the area
mid to late week, with multiple chances for showers.

After a period of warm and dry weather Sunday through Monday, an
upper level trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes region
and Northeast mid to late week. Mean MSLP shows an anomalously deep
surface low for this time of year moving from the Mid-West to
northern Ontario province Tuesday. An associated cold front is
expected to move across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes
region through Wednesday. This will become the focus of unsettled
weather through mid-week. The upper level trough is expected to
settle across the region into the weekend and support cooler than
normal temperatures and chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure over north western PA this afternoon, will
continue to depart southeast towards the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a
swath of rain is spread across western and north-central New York
spanning from Buffalo to Fulton. This being said, mainly IFR to LIFR
flight conditions are across all TAF sites except for KART for to
low ceilings and restricted visibilities from the rain, mist and
patchy fog.

Organized showers will taper off tonight, but low level moisture
will linger, supporting the potential for drizzle/mist/scattered
showers/patchy fog. The lower ceilings and visibilities will
gradually improve to MVFR and VFR for most locations south of Lake
Ontario, however areas closer to the NY-PA state line will remain
IFR due to low ceilings.


Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with scattered rain
showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure will continue to move southeast of the
eastern Great Lakes today. East to northeast winds will remain
steady between 15 to 25 knots through this evening and Small Craft
Advisories remain in place across the western zones of Lake Ontario.
North-northeasterly winds will freshen on Lake Erie and create
choppy conditions through this evening, however winds and waves are
expected to remain below small craft thresholds today.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes region
late tonight through Monday, bringing a period of mainly light
breezes and flat to near flat wave conditions for the second
half of the weekend into the start of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...HSK