Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS61 KBUF 221116
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
616 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Some light lake enhanced snows will linger east of Lake Ontario
this morning. Elsewhere...High pressure will bring largely dry
weather to the Lower Lakes today. A clipper system and its warm
front will then bring some light snow tonight which changes over
to rain Tuesday. High pressure builds into the Lower Lakes
Tuesday night with dry weather expected through Christmas eve.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak warm air advection and moisture dropping southeast along a mid-
level thermal boundary across our far eastern forecast area will
bring some light lake enhanced snowfall this morning. Nothing major
but something to be aware of...may see a spotty additional inch or
so from Oswego Co. into the St. Lawrence River valley today.

Otherwise...much of the area will see dry quiet weather as the sfc
ridge moves through the region. Highs today will largely be found in
the 30s.

A clipper system will move into the upper Great lakes tonight into
Tuesday, with a warm frontal segment extending in across the region.
Increasing isentropic lift under the upper jet and a swath of deeper
moisture will bring a light to at time moderate snowfall to Western
New York tonight into Tuesday morning. Guidance shows QPF of about
~0.25" but overall low snow ratios < 10:1 which will `likely` make
for a wet dense snowfall. That said...look for accumulations of 1-2"
potentially by sunrise across western New York, and just maybe a few
spots seeing up to 3" but even that is a stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will sharpen as it moves from northern Ontario to
southern New England Tuesday through Tuesday night. A surface
low/clipper will follow a similar track, with a warm front moving
across the forecast area Tuesday morning, then a cold front
following on it`s heels late Tuesday. Isentropic lift over a narrow,
modestly moist region is expected to be across the region Tuesday
morning. The precipitation shield is expected to lift northeast
through the afternoon, exiting the North Country Tuesday night.
Initially, thermal profiles support snow across most of the region
Tuesday morning. Snow will change to rain or drizzle across the
lower elevations from west to east Tuesday. Colder, low level air
will support the chance for freezing rain or freezing drizzle across
the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes as the back
edge of the precipitation moves out of the area Tuesday morning.
Although only a day out, there remains uncertainty in the timing and
potential for ice accretion for this region Tuesday morning.

Snow is expected to have the longest residence time across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region, especially the higher terrain Tuesday.
Forecast snow accumulations of 1-3" is expected across western NY,
and 2-4" east of Lake Ontario. The axis of heavier snow may linger
across the Eastern Lake Ontario, and there is a chance for
accumulations of up to 7" on the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario
through the event. At this time, snow amounts remain under advisory
levels and due uncertainties, no headlines were issued this morning.

Another wave of snow may move across the Eastern Lake Ontario region
late Tuesday night, as the shortwave swings across New England. An
additional 1-2" of snow is possible for the higher terrain. Cold,
northwest flow will move across the region Tuesday night. High
pressure will move across the region Christmas Even. Ridging and
warm air advection will begin Wednesday night. A few showers may
brush the western Southern Tier as a weak wave passes to our
southwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A modest warming trend will move into the region Christmas Day and
Friday. Surface high pressure south of James Bay will build
southeast towards the Canadian Maritimes and New England. A pseudo-
stationary front across the Ohio Valley will put us near a track of
potential clippers late in the week/weekend. Besides a few potential
showers across the western Southern Tier Christmas Day, mostly dry
weather is expected. Confidence is increasing that widespread
precipitation will move across the region Friday through Friday
night. Rain is the favored ptype with the exception of snow across
the North Country. A progressive pattern continues through the
weekend with chances of rain and snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower cigs and vsbys will be found ESE and E of Lake Ontario this
morning within light lake enhanced snows.

Otherwise...high pressure building in will bring VFR for all other
terminals through much of today.

An approaching clipper system will bring some light snow to western
New York...resulting in MVFR cigs and possibly some IFR/MVFR vsbys
by this evening and tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will pass to our south today will largely bring
lighter winds and wave action. A weak clipper low will then pass
through the region late tonight and Tuesday bringing yet another
round of SCA conditions...before high pressure builds back in for
Wednesday and brings a return to lighter winds and lower waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR