Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS61 KBUF 101024
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather is expected for most of the area today, with a
few showers/storms possible for areas east/southeast of Lake
Ontario. Mainly dry weather is expected into Thursday morning.
Shower potential increases for the end of the week and into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below, to near
normal levels through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers remain in place for CNY this morning as a slow moving
cold front tracks across the region. The western edge of these
showers will likely track into portions of Oswego and Lewis
county through the next few hours as they track NNE. Temperatures
are in the low to mid 60s across the area.

Today, any lingering showers east of Lake Ontario will come to an
end by mid-morning. A secondary cold front tracking across the area
will bring just enough forcing while also having somewhat good
timing for late morning/early afternoon heating to cause some
showers and a few thunderstorms for areas east/southeast of Lake
Ontario. The rest of the area can expect mostly dry conditions for
the day. It will become breezy during the late morning into the
afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible E/NE of the lakes with
a fairly tight pressure gradient over the region and daytime
heating. Temperatures today will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s,
around 5 degrees cooler than normal for most locations.

Tonight, dry weather is expected for the entire area, with skies
becoming mainly clear. Temperatures will cool to the low to mid
50s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will ridge north across
the area on Wednesday as it slides east across the Appalachians
bringing a mainly dry day. A cold front trailing low pressure moving
east across central Quebec will approach our area later in the day.
A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front combined with
increasing low level flow off the deck will yield a quite breezy
period from late morning through the prime mixing hours of the
afternoon with wind gusts up to 35 mph across the Niagara Frontier,
with a few gusts approaching 40 mph not out of the question. Winds
across the remainder of the area will gust between 20 and 30 mph.

Aforementioned cold front will sag southeast through western and
northcentral NY Wednesday night. Despite better moisture and lift
remaining to our north, can`t rule out a few scattered light showers
or an isolated rumble of thunder or two, especially toward the
eastern Lake Ontario region.

Cold front will stall out somewhere near or just south of the NY/PA
line by Thursday morning. Mainly dry weather expected to start our
Thursday, however as weak disturbances ride east along the stalled
boundary there will be the chance for a few light showers or a
thunderstorm across portions of western NY, especially toward the
Southern Tier during the second half of Thursday into Thursday
night. Eastern Lake Ontario region should remain far enough away
from the boundary to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quasi-stationary surface front will become bounded between Canadian
high pressure to the north and a Bermuda high ridged back westward
across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states. Expect the boundary
to wobble north and south between NY and PA right through the
weekend, possibly lingering into the start of the new work week.
This will keep at least periods of unsettled weather in the
forecast, however confidence is low with regard to where the exact
position of the boundary will be at any given time, as well as ill-
timed disturbances that will periodically ride east along the
boundary bringing better chances for showers and scattered
thunderstorms at times.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today, any lingering early morning MVFR will improve to VFR
across the entire area. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible E/SE of Lake Ontario, but should remain away from KART.

Tonight, mainly VFR, but some patchy fog can`t be ruled out, mainly
east of Lake Ontario and for the western Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers east of Lake
Ontario.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will increase to a moderate breeze on the lakes
today as the pressure gradient increases over the area. This will
cause choppy conditions on the lakes through the day today before
winds weaken some tonight.

Winds on Wednesday afternoon will increase out of the southwest once
again with the tight pressure gradient remaining over the region.
Winds on Wednesday will be near Small Craft Advisory levels for Lake
Erie and the western half of Lake Ontario.

Winds will weaken Wednesday night, and look to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels through much of the later portion of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW