Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

290
FXUS64 KEPZ 230940
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
240 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

- Dry and warm weather through next Wednesday. Temperatures well
  above normal for late November.

- Cooler, more seasonable temperatures for Thanksgiving and the
  rest of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a large region of high
pressure centered over the east-central Pacific this morning,
extending ridging flow aloft over Baja California and the U.S.
Southwest. Subsequent northward diversion of jet streak tracks
has led to a warming trend these past few days, pushing average
temperatures to 10-15 degrees above normal for late November.

Temperatures will warm back into the lower 70s for much of
southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon. This warm
and dry pattern will stick around through at least next Wednesday,
with several daily records highs threatened (though not currently
forecasted to be broken). Consistent lowland highs in the lower-
to-mid 70s with cool but mild overnight lows is the best bet.

Low-end breezy conditions Sunday afternoon with weak lee side
troughing to our north. Expect west winds in the 10-20 mph range
with peak gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.

Plentiful upper level moisture sourced from the atmospheric river
off the California Coast will move over our area as early as
Sunday and likely provide quite a bit of cirrus and high cloud
coverage through the work week. Monday almost looks to be overcast
through the day. We will stay dry, however.

Surface high pressure increasing across the Southern Plains will
allow for a cold front to sweep southward on Monday. Deterministic
solutions show confidence in a glancing blow locally with this
cooler air, stalling along the Rio Grande Valley Monday night and
becoming increasingly modified by Tuesday afternoon. This frontal
intrusion will go mostly unnoticed, bringing very little in terms
of winds or temperatures trends.

Our next more noticeable weather shift will occur on
Thanksgiving. More southern shortwave will cross the central
Rockies, allowing for another push of cooler air from the north
and a cold front moving through the area by Thursday morning. This
will cool us down, but ultimately get us closer to seasonal
normals (lowland highs in the lower-60s) for Thanksgiving and the
rest of the month. Once again, plenty of cloud coverage with this
frontal passage, but very slim rain chances as we head into
December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with dry
conditions and light winds. Winds will be AOB 6KT out of the NW
tonight shifting southwesterly after 18Z generally remaining AOB
10KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Elevated fire danger this weekend due to low humidity and above
normal temperatures. Min RH 12-20% in the afternoon. West winds
10-15 mph today increasing to 15-25 mph on Sunday. Smoke
ventilation will be Fair to Good this weekend with transport
generally eastward.

Dry and warm conditions will continue through Wednesday before a
cold front arrives from the north late this week. Plenty of cloud
coverage this week will hinder vent rates. Fuel dryness continues
to look low due to recent precipitation, thus no rapid fire
growth is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            72  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               71  41  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69  41  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               53  37  51  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    69  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              69  42  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   74  38  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                74  38  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                73  38  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             76  41  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               66  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   73  41  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  48  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            69  38  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    74  37  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71  42  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                66  40  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  69  44  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                63  39  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 61  38  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  68  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                73  40  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                69  35  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             69  37  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   71  38  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    76  25  73  28 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               70  36  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  70  41  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   77  41  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  76  38  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           78  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               71  44  67  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt