Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

237
FXUS64 KEPZ 051923
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
123 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...


.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

 - Increasing moisture and clouds with tonight through Tuesday.
   Hit and miss isolated to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday.

 - Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly
   flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back
   above normal beginning Wednesday.

 - Increasing winds late week, with continued dry weather will
   elevate fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Today we see the surface airmass from the N and NE firmly
established over the Borderland, with continued breezy E and SE
winds beginning to import some Gulf moisture into the region.
Aloft a deep SW/W flow pattern is overrunning the surface cool
pool, but there isn`t much lift associated. Also aloft, and to our
west, is a minor shortwave disturbance tracking W to E across our
area today. This also is struggling to produce much dynamics or
instability due to the cool nature of the low-level airmass. Thus,
our POPs, and actual shower occurrence is quite underwhelming,
and the models have backed off on pcpn for today, tonight, and a
good portion of Monday under this weather scenario. However, our E
and SW portions still do have the best moisture availability, and
thus we are seeing some very light isolated showers, with very
little actual rainfall today and this afternoon.

For tomorrow, Monday, the moisture remains, and even increases,
with further bumps in dewpoints and PWATs, but ridging aloft will
take over, and minimize the instability that would force pcpn to
develop. That will keep us dry for much of the day. With little to
no showers, and possibly fewer clouds, the airmass will begin to
modify, allowing temperatures to recover a few degrees.

Later Monday, and into the overnight hours, another disturbance
will arrive from the west. This second shortwave is stronger and
sharper than today`s, thus it will bring a better chance for
shower development Monday night through Tuesday. With a bit more
instability we could see a few weak thunderstorms. This period
will give us our best chances for measurable rainfall (>0.01"),
but wetting rains (0.10") will be quite isolated.

The trough axis looks to exit to the east early Tuesday afternoon.
Drier air, on deep westerly flow, quickly returns Wednesday. Low-
amplitude ridging builds over the SW U.S. warming our
temperatures back above normal starting Wednesday and continuing
through the rest of the period.

As we get to Friday and into the weekend, beyond the end of the
forecast period, the forecast becomes more uncertain, as the
models suggest a more chaotic pattern. A large Pacific low takes
shape off the West Coast and attempts to draw moisture in from the
east, but also appears to cause increasing winds over our western
areas. We don`t appear to be well above normal on temperatures, we
also don`t appear to be excessively dry on RH, but the winds could
elevate fire weather conditions, with potential for dry winds
western areas, and moisture and storms far eastern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at all terminal
sites. Isolated -SHRA may stream from SW to NE across KELP through
the afternoon, mainly south of KLRU. Otherwise, dry conditions
are forecast outside of KELP today with 15kft CIGs. Some clearing
later in the period. Breezy E-SE winds during the day, gusting to
20-25kts. Winds fall to AOB 10kts tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A boost in moisture, from the east, behind yesterday`s cold front
will help to keep fire weather concerns low through midweek. This
change in the weather pattern will keep temperatures at or below
normal through Tuesday, with plenty of passing clouds, elevated
RH, and isolated to scattered light rain showers for Monday and
Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy from the E and SE, but
well below concerning levels, and those winds will be responsible
for the ingest of the Gulf moisture, keeping RH up.

Wednesday we shift back to a modestly breezy west wind pattern,
which will flush the moisture out of the region. Thus we see the
start of warmer than average temperatures and lowering RH. Same
for Thursday, resulting in elevated fire wx conditions. No fire
wx products are anticipated later this week as winds should stay
below critical thresholds and min RHs will be in the teens,
staying out of the single-digit range. Late week we see a deep
pacific low pressure system slowly work it`s way east toward the
region. As it approaches we will see increased winds over western
areas Friday. Rain/storm chances appear possible over far eastern
areas late in the week, as Gulf moisture attempts to wash in from
the east on a possible dryline . Confidence is low in where the
dryline sets up, if it develops setup.

Min RHs range from 15-35% through Tue, then 10-25% Wed/Thu. Vent
rates will be good to very good today, then poor to good Mon; very
good to excellent Wed onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  46  72  52  79 /   0  10  50  30
Sierra Blanca            40  66  45  75 /  20  10  60  40
Las Cruces               41  68  48  75 /   0  10  60  30
Alamogordo               38  70  45  72 /   0  10  60  60
Cloudcroft               27  49  34  50 /   0  10  60  70
Truth or Consequences    44  68  50  73 /   0  10  60  50
Silver City              39  62  43  69 /   0  20  60  30
Deming                   44  71  49  78 /   0  10  50  30
Lordsburg                44  68  45  77 /   0  10  30  10
West El Paso Metro       48  71  54  77 /   0  10  60  30
Dell City                39  69  45  76 /  10  10  50  50
Fort Hancock             44  73  50  82 /  20  10  60  30
Loma Linda               41  65  47  70 /  10  10  60  40
Fabens                   44  73  52  80 /  10  10  50  30
Santa Teresa             44  69  50  77 /   0  10  60  30
White Sands HQ           45  70  52  75 /   0  10  60  40
Jornada Range            37  69  45  74 /   0  10  60  40
Hatch                    39  71  50  77 /   0  10  60  40
Columbus                 46  72  52  79 /   0  10  40  10
Orogrande                40  68  47  73 /   0  10  60  50
Mayhill                  29  61  37  61 /   0  10  60  70
Mescalero                28  61  35  60 /   0  10  60  70
Timberon                 31  56  36  60 /   0  10  60  70
Winston                  30  62  37  66 /   0  20  60  50
Hillsboro                40  66  46  72 /   0  20  60  40
Spaceport                36  68  45  73 /   0  10  60  40
Lake Roberts             36  65  40  70 /   0  20  60  40
Hurley                   39  65  42  72 /   0  20  50  30
Cliff                    41  71  43  78 /   0  20  50  20
Mule Creek               41  68  42  75 /   0  20  40  20
Faywood                  39  63  46  70 /   0  20  60  30
Animas                   45  71  46  78 /   0  10  20  10
Hachita                  42  69  46  78 /   0  10  30  10
Antelope Wells           44  72  47  80 /   0  10  20   0
Cloverdale               44  68  48  76 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird