Sunland Park, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

083
FXUS64 KEPZ 251804
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1204 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

 - Breezy and dry on today. Then windy, dry, and possibly dusty
   on Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected, and
   Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the area on both
   days.

 - The weather will be more benign Monday through Wednesday, as we
   sit between upper level  low pressure passages. Temperatures
   seasonably warm, conditions continue very dry, Winds lighter,
   but still breezy afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Active Spring-like pattern will continue with breezy to windy
conditions expected areawide through the weekend. Upper level system
will come onshore across the Central California Coast today. In
response, the associated upper level jet will begin to overlay the
Desert Southwest, promoting lee-side surface low development over
Northeastern New Mexico. Said sub-1000mb surface low will lead to
surface troughing across New Mexico with winds of 15-25 mph
sustained and gusts up to 40 mph across the area. On top of the
Critical Fire Weather conditions, isolated areas of blowing dust
will be possible.

For Sunday, upper level longwave trough over the Canadian Prairies
will rotate a lobe of energy extending southward across western
CONUS, that will eventually phase with the aforementioned upper
level system over the Great Basin and Central Rockies regions. This
phasing will induce strong lee-side surface low development over SE
Colorado and NE New Mexico. The ~990mb surface low will extend
surface troughing across New Mexico with tightly packed gradient
across the area. Thus, windy conditions will overlay the Borderland
Region on Sunday. Winds will be 20-35 mph sustained with gusts to 45-
55 mph. On top of the Critical Fire Weather conditions in place, a
Wind Advisory will be in effect across the majority of the forecast
area. Again, blowing dust will likely be a issued across the desert
lowlands Sunday afternoon.

Weak upper level troughing across the Great Basin will keep
conditions breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Daily high temperatures
through the middle of next week will range right around to slightly
above the seasonal average.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are
coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level
system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to
the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains
low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy to windy
conditions expected today with winds becoming 13-18 knots with gusts
to 23-28 knots out of the W/SW. Winds will slowly decrease after
sunset, becoming 10-15 knots during the overnight timeframe. Windy
conditions resume on Sunday with winds of 20-30 knots sustained and
gusts to 40-45 knots possible out of the SW. An AWW will be issued
for KELP for Sunday, the product will be issued shortly. Skies will
be SCT-BKN at 20-25 kft through the day, becoming FEW-SCT at 25 kft
during the overnight timeframe. Isolated instances of BLDU will be
possible this afternoon, but confidence is low so not mention in
TAF. Better confidence in BLDU for Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions expected through the weekend with
Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions on Monday and
Tuesday. Min RH values today and Sunday will drop into the teens
areawide, with slight increase on Sunday. However, windy conditions
can be expected with afternoon wind gusts up to 40 mph on Saturday
and 45-55 mph on Sunday. Smoke ventilation rates will be excellent
each afternoon.

For the first half of next week, weak upper level troughing over the
Great Basin will promote breezy winds with critical afternoon RH
values on Monday and Tuesday.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are
coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level
system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to
the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains
low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  88  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  86  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               51  82  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               53  83  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  60  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  80  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              46  70  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   51  83  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  77  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  86  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                55  89  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  94  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  81  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  91  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             54  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  85  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  82  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  85  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  84  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  72  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                45  70  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  69  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  41  69  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                52  77  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  80  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  69  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   45  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    47  76  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  70  35  71 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  47  75  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   54  80  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  80  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  80  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-
     Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth
     Counties-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern
     Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero
     Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
     Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers