Silver City, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS64 KEPZ 131906
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
106 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

-  Continue Thursday, with drier conditions east of the Rio Grande
   and better chances for rain in area mountains and west of the
   Rio Grande.

-  Deep monsoon moisture returns Friday and Saturday, with
   increased rain and storm chances, and an elevated threat for
   localized flash flooding.

-  High temperatures in the lowlands stay in the mid to upper 90s
   through the work week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Models are tracking consistently from yesterday to today, with the
evolution of the synoptic pattern looking quite similar. This
means a shift of our main feature, the upper high, from our west,
across New Mexico today and tomorrow, to finally settle to our
east late week, and then wander back west, to our north, for next
week. This migration of the high has the biggest impact on our
sensible weather for the next 7 days, as the flow pattern in each
quadrant, as moves, changes and either dries or moistens our
region.

For today and tomorrow, we see the high passes over our area,
tracking to our north, as it tracks in from the west. This will
place our eastern areas under a NE flow that will bring in drier
air, and push the more moist air to our W and S zones. Thus,
lesser storm coverage east and north, and continued storms
expected to our SW and W zones. It also means less clouds and
warmer temperatures over areas from the Rio Grande eastward.

Friday through roughly Sunday, the high will have tracked to our
east, and recentered over the S Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley
areas. This place our area under a deep southerly flow, on the
backside of the upper high. This will reintroduce a deep moist
monsoon flow pattern back over the region. Thus we expect a big
uptick in rain and storm coverage for these days. We should see
plenty more clouds, and cooler temperatures, with highs near or
slightly lower than normal. With the high moisture content, we
could see some increased probability for flash flooding.

For next week, the upper high shifts back to the west, and looks
to park itself well to our north. Because it stays to our north,
with doesn`t look to do a good job of flushing much moisture out
of the area, or creating enough stability aloft to limit much, if
any, storm development. Thus, we expect to see a lower grade
monsoon type environment over the region, with continued daily
storm development of likely scattered coverage. Temperatures will
likely work their way a bit warmer, but only near seasonal
averages, to slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions for the most part, expected for the TAF sites
through the period. We are seeing some moderate drying, as high
pressure translate east across the region. This is forcing drier
in in from the NE, and shoving the moist air to the SW of the
region. Still there is adequate moisture holding in place, so we
expect Isold shwrs/tstms will initiate in the aftn, with the
greatest coverage favoring the far wrn and far ern portion of the
area. BLDU will be a hazard from nearby convection, especially in
and around centrl and wrn terminals. Activity will diminish into
the evening hours. Otherwise, winds will remain light, with
typical aftn gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

High pressure aloft is shifting east, and moving across the region
today and tomorrow. This evolving flow pattern will pulling some
drier air from the NE, and push the better moisture to the SW,
across our region. This means a downtick in rain and storms over
the SACs, and surrounding lowlands, as well as Far West Texas, and
the central NM lowlands and deserts. However, we do expect the
focus of storm to be over the Bootheel and Gila, basically over
areas west of a Deming to TorC line. Still some chance of isolated
storms over our central areas, but scattered to the west. This
same pattern will repeat again tomorrow. For those drier areas,
east and central, this will mean warmer temperatures, and lower
RH, but nothing extreme, just trending warmer and drier, but with
very little wind to push any fire.

Friday and Saturday, the upper high will be to our east. Our area
will come under a deep southerly flow that will re-initiate a
good monsoonal pattern, with deep moisture moving back in over the
entire forecast area. We will expect more clouds, cooler
temperatures, elevated RH, and scattered to numerous showers and
storms across all fire zones. Flash flooding potential will also
be somewhat increased during this time.

Starting Sunday, and continuing into next week, the upper high is
forecasted to shift back west, but position well to our north.
This means we will likely keep most of our moisture in place of
the region, and the high will be weak enough over our region, that
it will do little to inhibit further storm development. Thus next
week, looks a bit drier, with some minor loss in rain and storm
coverage, but we think we will continue with daily rain and storms
across the region, with temperatures near normal, RH staying
above critical values, good recoveries at night, and mostly light
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 100  76  96 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca            67  93  69  92 /  10  20  10  40
Las Cruces               69  95  69  92 /  10  10  20  20
Alamogordo               69  96  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               52  73  52  71 /  10  20  10  50
Truth or Consequences    69  96  70  92 /  10  20  10  40
Silver City              63  89  62  85 /  20  60  40  80
Deming                   68  98  70  94 /  10  20  30  40
Lordsburg                67  95  67  90 /  30  50  50  60
West El Paso Metro       74  96  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City                68  97  71  96 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             72  97  74  95 /  10  20  20  40
Loma Linda               67  90  69  87 /  10  10  10  30
Fabens                   71  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa             71  95  72  92 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ           74  97  75  94 /  10  10  20  30
Jornada Range            68  96  69  92 /  10  10  20  30
Hatch                    68  98  69  94 /  10  20  20  40
Columbus                 70  97  72  92 /  20  20  30  30
Orogrande                69  95  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Mayhill                  57  84  57  83 /   0  20  10  50
Mescalero                56  84  57  83 /  10  20  10  50
Timberon                 55  82  56  80 /  10  20  10  40
Winston                  57  88  57  84 /  10  40  20  70
Hillsboro                64  95  64  92 /  10  30  30  50
Spaceport                66  96  67  92 /  10  10  20  30
Lake Roberts             57  88  57  85 /  20  70  40  90
Hurley                   63  91  63  87 /  20  50  30  70
Cliff                    64  96  64  92 /  30  60  40  80
Mule Creek               62  91  62  87 /  30  60  40  80
Faywood                  65  91  64  87 /  20  40  30  60
Animas                   67  94  67  89 /  40  50  60  70
Hachita                  66  94  66  89 /  30  40  40  60
Antelope Wells           65  92  65  88 /  40  40  60  60
Cloverdale               64  87  62  82 /  40  60  60  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird