Silver City, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

234
FXUS64 KEPZ 242314
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
514 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms will remain over the higher mountains
   this afternoon, but some outflow could kick up dust in
   southwestern New Mexico this evening.

 - High pressure aloft will keep temperatures in the 100 to 103
   range after today, technically a minor cool-down. Triple digits
   look to persist through much of the week ahead.

 - Slightly better storm chances return Saturday and Sunday, but
   still mainly over the mountains and out west. Low-end monsoon
   conditions look to persist next week with only minor variations
   in thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Sprawling 598 dam subtropical ridge is centered just south of the
Four Corners. Despite continued easterly flow aloft, it is
carrying in very warm and dry air aloft. 500 mb temp on the 18Z
RAOB was -3.3 C. The inverted trough at one time associated with
the remnants of Bertha is passing a little further north than
previously projected, along the Durango/Chihuahua border, but
still too far south to have any impact on weather directly. It
will help enhance convection over the Sierra Madres, and
associated low level moisture will work its way into southwest
New Mexico over the weekend.

Otherwise, we are just getting scattered high elevation
convection, and will likely see little to no drift into the
lowlands. Some outflow winds may approach Lordsburg Playa after
about 5 or 6 PM.

A slight uptick in convection is expected Saturday, still mainly
focused over the higher terrain, but with more drift into the
lowlands, favoring southwestern New Mexico.

Another weak inverted south passes south of the area on Sunday,
but again mostly influencing weather to our south (but further
north along the Sierra Madres Sunday evening). Convection chances
look a little more questionable over our area Sunday and Monday,
but moisture from activity in Sonora and Arizona looks to become
more firmly in place in SW New Mexico by Tuesday. It still looks
like we will be battling dry and warm air intrusions coming in
from Texas through much of next week, with no clear monsoon
"bursts" on the horizon, despite a weakening ridge drifting
slightly northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Scattered TS near KTCS this evening will linger to start the
period, dissipating overnight. Isolated activity may drift south
towards other terminals this evening, but confidence is low.
Outflows up to 30kts are possible. Prevailing winds will be light
from E-SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Low fire concerns continue. Min RHs in the desert lowlands will be
13-18% today but will increase just barely out of critical thresholds
to 18-22% over the weekend. Mountain RHs will be 30-50%. Scattered
storms expected in the area mountains today with drier conditions
across the lowlands. A slight uptick in storm activity and coverage
over the weekend. Temperatures stay 5-8 degrees above normal today
and through the weekend with light 20 foot winds of 5-10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81 103  79 102 /  20   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            69  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces               74 101  72 100 /  20  10  10  10
Alamogordo               76  99  74  99 /  10  20  10  20
Cloudcroft               56  76  55  75 /  30  30  10  60
Truth or Consequences    76 100  74  99 /  10  20  40  10
Silver City              68  94  66  92 /  20  30  40  50
Deming                   75 102  72 101 /  10  10  20  10
Lordsburg                75 101  72  99 /  10  20  40  10
West El Paso Metro       82 102  80 101 /  10   0   0  10
Dell City                74 101  73 100 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             78 103  78 104 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               72  95  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   79 103  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             79 101  76 100 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           81 102  80 100 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range            77 101  75  99 /  10  10  20  10
Hatch                    76 104  74 102 /  10  10  20  10
Columbus                 79 104  77 102 /  10   0   0  10
Orogrande                75 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  62  87  60  87 /  30  20  10  40
Mescalero                61  87  59  87 /  30  40  20  60
Timberon                 59  86  58  85 /  20  20  10  40
Winston                  64  91  63  90 /  20  30  40  60
Hillsboro                73  98  71  97 /  10  20  20  30
Spaceport                73 100  71  99 /  10  20  20  10
Lake Roberts             62  94  61  93 /  20  50  30  60
Hurley                   69  98  68  96 /  30  20  30  40
Cliff                    69 100  68  98 /  40  40  40  30
Mule Creek               68  95  65  94 /  30  50  40  40
Faywood                  70  97  69  95 /  20  20  30  40
Animas                   75 101  72  99 /  10  10  20  10
Hachita                  73 101  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           73 101  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
Cloverdale               69  95  67  93 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana
     County-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson