Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS65 KABQ 140522
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1022 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 927 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

 - Wind gusts up to 45-50mph are possible Friday in west-central
   NM, where locally critical fire weather may occur.

 - Wetter and cooler weather is likely Sunday and Monday.
   Precipitation totals have trended down, but slick to snowpacked
   roadways are still expected in the mountains above 8,500 feet.
   There is a low risk of rain on snow flooding.

 - A quick-hitting, colder winter system may impact the area
   Tuesday. Minor snow accumulations are possible in the northern
   mountains.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

Tranquil weather continue through the state today and through
Friday, with high temperatures gradually increasing each day. Breezy
to locally windy conditions return to the western half of the state
on Friday and to the central areas on Saturday. Rain and mountain
snow will spread out across the central and eastern regions on
Sunday into Monday. Additional snow accumulation is possible from a
quick cold system on Tuesday into Wednesday in the northern
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west tonight through
Thursday night with abundant sunshine and starry skies.  The high
temperature on Thursday will climb around 4-12 degrees above today`s
readings, reaching near to around 11 degrees above 1991-2020
averages. There will be some impressive temperature inversions
tonight, with some mid-slope locations a good 10-15 degrees warmer
than nearby valley bottoms. Winds will also become gusty on the
Caprock of eastern NM on Thursday, south of a surface low pressure
system over the northeast plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

A hefty upper level trough is forecast to move into the Great Basin
beginning on Friday, where it will bring a ~120kt jet streak over
western NM. This will drive up southwest surface winds across much
of western NM through the afternoon hours on Friday, especially in
the higher terrain of the Gila and Chuska Mountains, to around 20-25
kts sustained. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
could be present through the west central mountains and west central
basin and range based on these winds (gusts up to 45-50mph), as well
as RH values in the teens and above normal temperatures (highs
nearing the mid 60s). This jet is forecast to strengthen moving into
Saturday to around ~140kt while moving a bit eastward. As a result,
southwest winds shift over the central mountain chain and eastward.
These breezy conditions will persist before our trough evolves to
bring precipitation to the region.

The trough will become a cutoff low late Saturday, setting itself
near the CA/AZ border. Into Sunday, the low will advect subtropical
moisture into NM, bringing mountain snow and low elevation rain to
most of central and eastern NM. Recent model runs have pushed this
low through NM faster than initial guidance, which lowers the
confidence of any significant snowfall in mountainous regions, as
well as heavier rainfall totals in the lower elevations. Ensemble
clustering has weakened the strength of the broad trough through
recent runs, further decreasing the confidence of significant
precipitation. The exact path and timing of the low is still
uncertain, as the deterministic ECMWF pushes the low through a
bit faster than the GFS. The ECMWF also has resolved a backdoor
front on Sunday, which would increase precipitation chances along
the eastern areas, but confidence is not high with this. The
system is expected to push through and out of NM by Monday
evening/night.

Model and ensemble guidance continue to struggle with the evolution
of the overall troughing pattern and how a secondary, colder system
may impact northern NM into Tuesday and Wednesday. The most likely
scenario is for troughing to occur over the central US, however the
location of this will drive what this secondary system does. Should
it trend towards ECMWF ensemble solutions, a more robust closed low
could form over the central Plains and would induce a bit more
moisture into the area. This would lay the grounds for some
scattered snow showers, potentially in some lower elevations as
well. The GFS ensemble trend has a weaker trough setting up more
eastward into the Midwest US. With that, less moisture and lift
would be available within NM and thus PoPs would decrease to single
digits. Needless to say, uncertainty exists past our first storm
system on Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

A ridge of high pressure will cross tonight through Thursday night
with warming temperatures Thursday, and many locations into Friday.
Near critical and locally critical fire weather conditions are
forecast across the West Central Mountains and West Central Basin
and Range on Friday afternoon, with above average temperatures,
southwest wind gusts up to 50 mph, and very low humidities, as winds
aloft strengthen ahead of an approaching upper level trough. One
could make the case for a Red Flag Warning on Friday, but ERCs from
77-87% and observed fire danger of only moderate suggest fuel
conditions are still being moderated by the relatively recent winter
precip event over that area.  If there is significant drying over
the next 36 hours, a Red Flag Warning may become warranted for
Friday afternoon.

Breezy to windy conditions will shift mainly along and east of the
central mountain chain Saturday as the upper trough forms a closed
upper level low pressure system over the upper Gulf of California.
The upper low will track northeastward across southern and eastern
NM Sunday through Monday, while spreading rain and mostly high
elevation snow over the southern and eastern halves of the fire
weather forecast area. Rain and liquid equivalent precip amounts
could reach up to 1.25" along and east of the Sandia and Manzano
Mountains, with lighter amounts up to a half inch over northeast and
southwest areas.  With 700 mb temperatures only bottoming out around
0C to -3C, and in the absence of a strong backdoor cold front, the
snow accumulation level will probably remain above 8500 feet where a
few to several inches of snow will be possible mainly in the
Sandias, Manzanos, and Sangre de Cristos.  High temperatures will
fall a few to several degrees below 1991-2020 averages over western
areas starting Saturday, then over eastern areas as well starting
Sunday, then remain several degrees above the 30-year averages
through at least Tuesday.  The potential exists for another upper
level trough clipping northeast NM to produce breezy northwest winds
over much of the forecast area Tuesday, and additional snow mainly
to north central and eastern areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  25  61  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  16  62  19  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  23  58  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  14  65  20  63 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  25  63  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  19  63  21  64 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  22  67  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  31  63  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  27  64  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  21  70  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  32  73  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  57  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  32  54  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  31  58  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  25  54  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  49  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  12  51  14  52 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  20  55  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  24  61  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  25  60  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  32  55  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  59  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  31  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  25  62  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  30  60  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  26  61  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  30  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  28  61  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  34  57  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  59  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  67  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  55  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  33  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  26  57  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  19  59  20  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  29  56  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  28  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  29  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  34  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  36  64  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  24  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  20  59  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  19  57  21  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  26  61  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  29  61  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  24  58  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  29  70  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  32  67  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  31  67  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  34  67  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  33  68  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  66  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  35  70  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  33  72  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  33  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11