Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS65 KABQ 231719 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1019 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1015 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

 - A dry and unseasonably warm weather pattern will persist
   through Christmas Eve, with high temperatures generally around
   5-15 degrees above average.

 - A weak winter storm on Christmas Day and night will bring some
   accumulating snow to the northern mountains and near Raton
   Pass. Westerly winds will increase areawide, particularly along
   and east of the central mountain chain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through
Christmas Eve prior to a weak winter storm impacting the region on
Christmas Day, with brisk conditions and light snow accumulations
in the northern mountains and near Raton Pass. Cooler conditions
will prevail through the end of the week, with breezy conditions
along and immediately east of the central mountain chain. Warming
through the weekend will bring temperatures back to well above
normal most areas by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today and Tuesday,
despite readings trending cooler behind a Pacific cold front that
crossed overnight and a backdoor cold front that will sag southward
through the eastern plains today.  High temperatures will vary
around 4-14 degrees above 1991-2020 averages both days. Thick mid
and high clouds over the area will gradually clear out from the west
today, lingering longest over eastern areas. Abundant sunshine is
forecast as a ridge of high pressure crosses from the west on
Tuesday, but high clouds will begin to increase from the west over
western areas again late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 126 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

The upper level ridge will shift east of the area Tuesday night as
an upper low approaches the Four Corners from over southern NV.
The upper low is then forecast to move east across northern NM
Christmas day/night, bringing a round of accumulating snow to the
northern mountains and near Raton Pass. The 00Z NAM is the outlier
among the 00Z model solutions, with the upper low taking a
southeast turn over central NM and ending up somewhere around
Roswell by 12Z Thursday. However, the consensus track is similar
to what has been modeled for a few forecast cycles now, with the
upper low near Clayton by 12Z Thursday. Either way, the lack of a
preceding backdoor front will limit impacts and our storm total
snow amounts are below advisory threshold. Slick roadways through
the northern mountains and along I-25 through Raton Pass are
likely Christmas afternoon through Christmas night and may need to
issue a Special Weather Statement today to highlight those
potential minor travel impacts. Brisk conditions will prevail as
the upper low moves overhead, bringing temperatures down closer to
normal across western NM on Christmas Day. A trailing shortwave
trough will bring breezy conditions on Thursday, mainly along/east
of the central mountain chain. This shortwave trough may bring a
round of light snow to northern NM going into Thursday night, but
that is a lower forecast confidence scenario at this time given
notable model spread. Moderate northwest flow aloft will continue
into Friday, with breezy to locally windy conditons along/east of
the central mountain chain. Warming is forecast through the
weekend as pressure heights trend back up, with daytime
temperatures reaching above to well above normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

Mid and high level clouds will clear from west to east today.
Light northwest winds will develop over western NM with gusts up
to 20KT in a few wind prone areas. A weak backdoor cold front
sliding south thru eastern NM will allow for localized northerly
wind gusts up to 20KT as well thru sunset. Most terminals will be
clear tonight with very light winds. However, a patchy of MVFR
low cigs may develop along the Caprock near Clovis before sunrise
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

Ventilation will continue to improve over southern parts of the
forecast area today, then vent rates will plummet into the poor
category almost areawide on Tuesday, before rebounding as a weather
system crosses from the west northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The storm system will move quickly and won`t have much
moisture with it, so only a few inches of snow are forecast over the
northern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. There will be a
mix of light rain and snow elsewhere along and west of the central
mountain chain Wednesday, then areawide Wednesday night. After
temperatures well above 30-year averages today through Tuesday,
readings will fall a little closer to the averages Wednesday and
Thursday, then remain there Friday as another upper level trough
crosses the central and southern Rockies. There will again be a
chance of light rain and snow showers over western and north central
areas Thursday night and Friday. Southwest winds will become gusty
on Wednesday, then northwest winds will become gusty on Friday, as
the weather systems cross. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to
build over the southwest US over the coming weekend with warmer
temperatures and dry weather area wide, as well as some lingering
wind gusts along the central mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  21  52  31 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  55  13  54  21 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  52  21  52  26 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  58  16  57  24 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  54  26  56  29 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  57  19  58  22 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  55  23  59  28 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  58  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  56  28  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  66  21  66  24 /   5   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  68  34  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  50  18  50  24 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  51  30  50  32 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  55  28  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  50  24  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  43  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  47  10  48  19 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  52  16  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  55  23  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  58  21  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  53  28  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  55  25  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  33  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  28  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  30  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  59  24  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  59  28  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  24  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  60  28  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  58  25  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  56  31  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  32  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  28  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  54  30  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  56  26  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  19  57  22 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  53  26  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  56  27  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  56  28  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  60  34  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  34  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  24  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  54  22  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  55  21  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  56  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  55  26  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  60  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  27  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  58  27  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  63  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  64  29  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  27  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  67  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  69  34  66  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42