Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS65 KABQ 022108
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
308 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Elevated risk of fire spread in eastern New Mexico for the
  remainder of today and again Thursday due to very dry
  conditions and breezy southwest winds. Light rain and snow
  showers will favor western New Mexico both days, with minor
  accumulations in the high terrain.

- Increased chances for lower elevation rain and snow and
  potentially significant mountain snow Friday through the
  weekend. Minor to moderate travel impacts likely in northern and
  eastern areas. Confidence is high for widespread wetting
  precipitation.

- Cold, with near record low max temperatures for eastern New
  Mexico on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the state will be 15
  to 35 degrees below normal.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns persist through
the remainder of today and again on Thursday across eastern NM
where gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity values
persist. Meanwhile, light showers will persist across northwest
and north central New Mexico. A more significant round of
precipitation is expected for eastern NM Friday through Saturday,
though western areas won`t miss out entirely. A mix of rain and
snow will be welcomed across lower elevations while significant
snowfall returns to the Northern Mountains. Much colder
temperatures are in store for Saturday, especially across eastern
NM. After this weekend, much quieter conditions are in store with
a gradual warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A robust upper level jet streak of about 140 kts in strength and
oriented from SW to NE across New Mexico, will continue to shift
eastward. This feature has lead to a persistent band of upper level
cloud cover for a large part of our south-central and southeastern
areas. As a result, nudged temperatures high temperatures down a
couple of degrees for locations along the southern half of the
eastern plains. Cumulus fields continue to develop across the
state, but with such dry conditions at the surface, only the
occasional virga shower is expected. Winds throughout the state look
to remain light to breezy for most of the state through the end of
the day. Compared to the rest of the state, there will be stronger
winds for southern areas such as Chaves County, where higher speeds
aloft may mix down to the surface. There is also a low chance (<20%)
of light rain for far eastern New Mexico tonight. There may be
enough forcing aloft with the right entrance region of the upper
level jet streak in southwestern New Mexico to create some showers.
However, recent guidance has backed off on rain chances, as enough
Gulf moisture doesn`t seem to make its way this far west.

An upper level disturbance will push through northwestern New Mexico
tonight ahead of a digging trough in the Great Basin. A vorticity
lobe associated with this disturbance should create enough forcing
to develop some snow showers along the Four Corners region from
Gallup to Farmington. There is less confidence in the development of
convective storms as CAPE values will be a meager 250 J/kg and DCAPE
looks to be less than 400 J/kg. Nevertheless, a lightning strike or
two is not out of the question, along with the possibility of some
gusty and erratic outflows. Liquid equivalent accumulations look to
be light at around a tenth or less, with chances diminishing heading
into the later morning hours. A couple inches of snow are likely to
accumulate over the peaks of the Chuska Mountains.

Wind speeds look to pick up a bit over eastern areas on Thursday
afternoon as a sub 1000 mb lee side sfc trough develops in
southeastern Colorado. Stronger southwest gusts of 25 to 35 mph will
be possible for northeastern areas such as Clayton. As the trough
over the Great Basin digs southeast into the Desert Southwest, it
starts to interact with some Gulf moisture. Late Thursday night and
into Friday morning, a line of showers looks to develop over
southeastern parts of the region. There is still some uncertainty on
exact rainfall amounts and rates, but there is about a 50% chance of
parts of Chaves and Roosevelt counties to get more than a quarter
inch. Once again, there is also the potential for the occasional
rumble of thunder and gusty outflow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Much needed and much wanted precipitation is in store for Friday
through the weekend. Will it be winter`s last gasp? Time will
tell, but snow is on the way.

A 552-553dam H5 low over southern AZ Friday morning will track
eastward across southern NM through Saturday, slowly filling as it
does so. At the surface, low level easterly flow will pull in
Gulf moisture to eastern NM on Friday. Then, a potent cold front
will slide southward across the plains and westward through the
gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will result in an active Friday through Saturday
period. Initially, lift associated with the low will bring showers
to portions of western NM, while the upper level lift will combine
with the low level upslope and moisture gradient to produce
additional shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern NM. Mid
level lapse rates between 8-9C and LI`s between 0 and -2 should
be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, at minimum. H7 temps
through much of Friday will remain around -1 to -3C, so snow
levels will be around 6.5-7kft. However, as the backdoor front
plows southward Friday night, H7 temps will fall between -4 and
-10C. Fortunately, this means there should not be any freezing
 rain or sleet in the transition, and rain will just become snow.
 Weak upslope will also aid in snow production across the Central
 Mountain Chain. Confidence is high that widespread precipitation
 will develop along and behind the front across eastern NM. While
 model spread is high for total QPF (10th percentile between one
 and two tenths and 90th percentile between 1 and 1.35") the most
 likely range looks to be between 0.5 and 1 inch. As the front
 pushes through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, strong
 upslope will also be noted across the east slopes of the Jemez
 and Tusas Mountains as well as some west central mountain areas
 as well. At this time, between 6 and 12 inches of snow looks
 increasingly likely across the Northern Mountains and areas along
 the NM/CO border near Raton Pass, with locally higher amounts up
 to 18 inches on the highest peaks. Across eastern NM and the
 west central and southwest mountains, most areas will see between
 1 and 4 inches. Little to no accumulation is currently expected
 in the Albuquerque Metro area. Part of this is because it will
 mostly be too warm, but the front will also bring strong gap
 winds to the ABQ metro area. Strong winds are also expected
 behind the front across eastern NM, which will result in areas of
 blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Much of the precipitation will wind down Saturday night, though a
few showers will linger on Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday across
eastern NM will be up to 35 degrees below normal on Saturday
thanks to the front, persistent cloud cover and precipitation.
This will near record low maximum temperatures for the date in
many areas. The warming trend will begin on Sunday despite
meridional flow. The trend will continue through mid week as drier
northwest flow takes shape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High confidence in VFR prevailing at the TAF sites through much of
the afternoon, before a disturbance aloft clipping northwest NM
brings in chances for snow showers (perhaps mixed with rain at
times) into KFMN and KGUP. With dry air in place at the surface
(dewpoints 10-15F), CIG`s should remain VFR into mid-evening
(medium confidence), before eventually falling to MVFR. Also, will
need to keep an eye on virga showers producing erratic and gusty
winds at KROW, with brief blowing dust as well, through about 19Z,
as composite radar shows some precip aloft falling out of high-
based (FL100) clouds. Note that the erratic, gusty showers could
impact KFMN and KGUP early this evening as well. Other TAF sites
to follow a diurnal pattern of breezy to gusty winds with passing
mid- and high-level clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Cloud cover over southern and eastern New Mexico has kept winds
lighter and curbed the critical fire weather threat for this
afternoon. Dry and breezy conditions will continue for Thursday, but
unlike today where the stronger wind gusts were in the southern part
of the state, Thursday`s winds will be higher over the northeast.
Minimum relative humidities will still be quite low for the majority
of eastern New Mexico at around 15% or less. These dry conditions
and stronger gusts will contribute to a few hours of patchy critical
fire weather conditions for parts of northeast New Mexico. For the
rest of the state, the dry and southerly flow will contribute to
elevated conditons.

Fire weather threat decreases heading into the end of the week as a
late season winter storm looks to bring widespread wetting
precipitation and heavy snow for the northern mountains. Increased
moisture and much colder temperatures will keep the fire threat to a
minimum. However, for early to middle of next week, temperatures
look to warm back up as high pressure ridging will build over the
region. Conditions will become warmer and dryer, but winds will
still be fairly light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  30  49  29  53 /  60  50   5  30
Dulce...........................  19  44  15  51 /  50  60  10  50
Cuba............................  21  44  23  51 /  40  30   5  50
Gallup..........................  18  46  18  47 /  50  20   5  60
El Morro........................  21  43  23  46 /  30  20  10  70
Grants..........................  17  48  20  50 /  30  10   5  60
Quemado.........................  19  45  24  48 /  10  10  10  60
Magdalena.......................  25  51  29  52 /   0   5   5  40
Datil...........................  21  46  25  48 /   5   5   5  50
Reserve.........................  17  51  21  54 /   5   5   5  50
Glenwood........................  24  56  26  58 /   5   5   0  50
Chama...........................  18  38  15  46 /  50  60  10  70
Los Alamos......................  29  45  30  48 /  10  20   0  60
Pecos...........................  25  46  28  50 /  10  10   5  70
Cerro/Questa....................  25  43  23  46 /  20  30   5  70
Red River.......................  19  34  19  36 /  20  40  10  90
Angel Fire......................  17  41  15  43 /  10  20   5  80
Taos............................  20  46  19  50 /  10  30   0  70
Mora............................  21  47  23  46 /   5  10   5  70
Espanola........................  27  52  24  57 /  10  20   0  50
Santa Fe........................  28  46  29  51 /  10  20   5  70
Santa Fe Airport................  26  50  28  55 /  10  10   5  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  35  53  36  57 /  10  10   5  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  55  34  58 /  10  10   5  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  30  57  32  60 /  10  10   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  55  33  58 /  10  10   5  30
Belen...........................  27  57  28  61 /   5   5   5  30
Bernalillo......................  32  56  32  59 /  10  10   5  40
Bosque Farms....................  27  57  28  61 /  10   5   5  30
Corrales........................  32  56  33  59 /  10  10   5  40
Los Lunas.......................  28  57  30  60 /  10   5   5  30
Placitas........................  32  51  34  55 /  10  10   5  50
Rio Rancho......................  32  55  33  58 /  10  10   5  40
Socorro.........................  31  60  33  62 /   0   0  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  27  48  31  51 /  10  10   5  60
Tijeras.........................  28  50  31  53 /  10  10   5  60
Edgewood........................  24  51  27  53 /  10  10   5  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  52  21  55 /   5   5   5  50
Clines Corners..................  23  49  27  50 /   5   0  10  60
Mountainair.....................  25  51  27  53 /   5   0  10  50
Gran Quivira....................  26  52  28  53 /   0   0  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  32  55  34  56 /   0   0  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  32  49  34  50 /   5   0  40  50
Capulin.........................  26  50  27  44 /   5   5   5  70
Raton...........................  24  53  26  50 /   5  20   5  70
Springer........................  24  55  27  51 /   5   5   0  60
Las Vegas.......................  24  50  27  50 /   0   0   5  70
Clayton.........................  33  60  35  51 /   5   5  20  60
Roy.............................  29  55  32  50 /   0   0  10  60
Conchas.........................  34  63  37  56 /   0   0  20  60
Santa Rosa......................  32  60  36  53 /   0   0  20  70
Tucumcari.......................  36  64  38  55 /  10   5  40  70
Clovis..........................  40  65  40  56 /  20   5  70  70
Portales........................  41  66  39  55 /  20   5  70  80
Fort Sumner.....................  36  64  37  56 /   0   0  40  70
Roswell.........................  41  69  44  61 /   5   0  60  60
Picacho.........................  33  61  37  57 /   0   0  40  50
Elk.............................  33  58  34  55 /   5   0  40  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...53

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.