Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

308
FXUS65 KABQ 131155 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Moderate risk of flash flooding below burn scars through the
  work week, the becoming high this weekend into early next week.

- After decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms today,
  monsoon moisture will begin to increase again near the Arizona
  border on Thursday, and over western and central New Mexico
  Friday. Fairly rich monsoon moisture will then remain in place
  across much of the forecast area through the first half of the
  coming work week with daily rounds of scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms. There will also be a risk of isolated
  flash flooding outside of burn scars Friday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A noticeable downtick in thunderstorm coverage is forecast today
as PWATs drop mostly between 75-100% of normal. Scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast near mountains
with slow and erratic storm motions as a fairly broad 500 mb high
pressure system centers over the northwest part of the forecast
area. Exceptions will be numerous storms over the southwest
mountains including Glenwood where some of the best moisture will
be found, and dry weather over the Chuska, Sandia, and Manzano
Mountains which will have the least atmospheric moisture
available. High temperatures this afternoon should generally climb
a few to around 8 degrees above Tuesday`s readings.

On Thursday, temperatures will trend downward and precipitation
chances upward. The upper high will shift gradually eastward along
the CO/NM border, exiting over OK in the evening. Meanwhile an
upper level trough will deepen over the west coast, helping to
steer richer monsoon northward mostly west of the NM/AZ border.
Scattered to isolated storms should return to the north central
mountains and south central mountains Thursday afternoon and
evening, with little if any convection in between. With the ridge
of high pressure crossing aloft, high temperatures over central
and eastern areas should climb a few to 4 degrees on Thursday
compared to today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Model PWATs generally climb near and over 1 inch Friday through
the middle of next week, except for some lower values around the
Four Corners this weekend and Tuesday. The upper high will broaden
and build as it shifts over the Mississippi River Valley over the
weekend, then it is forecast to weaken and recenter over CO.
A modest surge of monsoon moisture will stream northward over
central and western areas on Friday, then tilt eastward some
Saturday and Sunday allowing a little drier air over the Four
Corners. Thus, there will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall each
day Friday through Sunday with the potential for isolated flash
flooding. After traveling mainly north, northeast, and east over
the weekend, storms will begin to travel toward the west and
southwest during the first half of the work week as the high
pressure system recenters over CO. With the high mainly north of
NM, Gulf moisture will remain over the forecast area keeping
storms active pretty much areawide early in the work week. Tuesday
into Wednesday, a moist backdoor front is forecast to dive
southwestward through the state, potentially with a disturbance
embedded in the periphery of the ridge aloft, invigorating storm
coverage and increasing the risk of locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding. With all the moisture in place, high temperatures
will trend mostly below average this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

High temperatures will climb near average over eastern areas this
afternoon, and as much as 7 degrees above average over north
central and western areas where density altitude will be an
important consideration for aviation operations near complex
terrain. There will also be a downtick in thunderstorm coverage
this afternoon, with scattered storms initially forming over the
mountains, then more isolated activity spreading gradually to
surrounding lowlands with slow and erratic storm motion.
Exceptions will include the southwest mountains where numerous
storms are forecast, and the Sandia and Manzano Mountains where
dry weather is expected. Some isolated and gusty virga showers
and dry thunderstorms will be in the mix over the northwest
mountains and along the continental divide, including KGUP. Only a
few lingering cells are forecast near the southwest border with
AZ after sunset, then dry weather areawide by late this evening. A
few of today`s stronger thunderstorms, and well developed virga
showers, will be capable of producing localized, brief, and
erratic wind gusts around 40 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Critically low minimum humidities will persist over west central
and northwest areas through Thursday. A more traditional flow of
monsoon moisture is forecast to set up during the latter half of
the week with the most widespread and heaviest precip over central
and western areas on Friday afternoon and evening. Drier air is
expected to nudge over the Four Corners this weekend, while
wetting precip favors the remainder of the fire weather forecast
area. It`s worth noting that models are not as aggressive with
bringing the dry air over northwest NM in the latest runs as they
were in the previous runs, indicating a trend toward wetter
solutions there. Monsoon moisture looks to remain in place during
the first half of next week with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms returning daily to much of the forecast area.
Pockets of critically low humidity will continue to be possible
near the Four Corners.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  63  96  63 /   0   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  92  49  92  47 /  20  10  20  20
Cuba............................  89  56  90  55 /  10  10  20  20
Gallup..........................  93  53  91  55 /  10   5  30  40
El Morro........................  88  55  87  55 /  20  10  50  50
Grants..........................  92  55  91  56 /  10  10  40  30
Quemado.........................  88  58  87  58 /  30  20  70  50
Magdalena.......................  88  63  88  61 /  20   5  30  20
Datil...........................  85  56  85  56 /  40  10  50  30
Reserve.........................  92  54  90  54 /  50  20  70  40
Glenwood........................  95  58  94  59 /  70  20  70  40
Chama...........................  85  50  85  48 /  20  10  40  20
Los Alamos......................  86  62  87  60 /  20   5  40  10
Pecos...........................  85  58  87  58 /  20  10  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  85  56  86  55 /  30  10  50  20
Red River.......................  76  48  77  46 /  30  10  40  20
Angel Fire......................  78  40  80  40 /  30  10  40  10
Taos............................  87  53  89  53 /  20  10  30  10
Mora............................  81  52  84  52 /  30  10  40  10
Espanola........................  94  58  96  59 /  20   5  20  10
Santa Fe........................  87  63  89  62 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  90  59  92  60 /  10   5  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  70  94  70 /   5   5  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  66  95  67 /   5   5   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  65  99  66 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  97  67 /   5   5   5  20
Belen...........................  96  62  98  63 /   5   5   5  10
Bernalillo......................  95  65  97  66 /   5   5  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  96  62  98  62 /   0   5   5  10
Corrales........................  97  66  98  66 /   5   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  96  63  98  63 /   0   5   5  10
Placitas........................  92  66  93  66 /   5   5  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  95  66  97  66 /   5   5  10  20
Socorro.........................  97  66  99  66 /  10   5  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  62  89  61 /   5   5  10  10
Tijeras.........................  90  63  91  63 /   5   5  10  20
Edgewood........................  90  58  91  58 /   5   5  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  55  91  55 /   5   5   5  10
Clines Corners..................  84  59  85  59 /   5  10   5  10
Mountainair.....................  88  60  89  60 /   5   5  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  86  59  88  60 /  10   5  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  88  64  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  80  59  82  60 /  50  10  20  10
Capulin.........................  83  55  86  57 /  20  10  10  10
Raton...........................  87  53  89  53 /  20  10  20  10
Springer........................  89  54  91  55 /  20  10  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  85  55  87  55 /  20  10  20  10
Clayton.........................  89  63  93  64 /   5  10   0   0
Roy.............................  87  59  90  60 /  10  20   5   5
Conchas.........................  94  65  97  66 /   5  10   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  91  61  93  63 /   5  10   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  90  64  93  66 /   0   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  93  66  97  68 /   0   5   0   5
Portales........................  93  66  97  69 /   0   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  93  66  96  68 /   0   5   0   5
Roswell.........................  97  68  99  71 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  90  62  92  63 /  20   5  10   5
Elk.............................  87  59  89  60 /  30   5  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44