Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXUS65 KABQ 230829
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
129 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

 - High temperatures well above average today and Sunday before
   becoming cooler leading into Thanksgiving and even colder come
   Thanksgiving Day.

 - Breezy to windy conditions in many locations Sunday, and
   especially Wednesday.

 - Increasing precipitation chances over northern and western
   areas late Monday through Thanksgiving morning. The northern
   mountains may accumulate a few to several inches of snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 129 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Well above normal temperatures areawide with stronger winds across
the highlands this weekend as a disturbance moving across the
Rockies. Colder, especially across eastern areas, on Monday behind a
backdoor front with lighter winds. Rain and mountain snow chances
across northwest and north central areas late Monday through
Thanksgiving morning as a system moves across the intermountain
West. Highest snowfall amounts across the Tusas Mountains with some
accumulating snow across the rest of the northern mountains. Drier
with temperatures dropping below normal Thanksgiving Day into
Thanksgiving weekend behind the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

The upper level ridge axis has shifted east of NM this morning, and
westerly flow aloft will gradually strengthen throughout the day. A
1002mb surface low will develop by afternoon near the CO/OK/NM
border. This feature will help increase surface winds along and east
of the Central Mountain Chain today. Breezy conditions can be
expected from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains southward to KCQC and
Vaughn. Gusts between 30 and 35 mph can be expected in these areas,
potentially enhanced by mountain wave activity. Though H5 heights
will lower some today compared to yesterday, the downslope flow
across eastern NM will allow temperatures to continue to warm. Most
areas outside snowpack will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile, across western NM temperatures will be similar to
yesterday, which also happens to be around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Mostly quiet conditions tonight. Temperature inversions won`t be
quite as stout as the previous few nights thanks to some continuing
westerly breezes. In fact, flow aloft will continue to strengthen
overnight, thus, ridgetops will be more gusty with time overnight.
50 mph wind gusts on the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains is
not out of the question.

Slightly better mixing on Sunday vs. today will allow surface winds
to be a bit stronger overall with a similar surface low. More
mountain wave activity will create erratic gusts along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Areas around Clines
Corners and Vaughn may need a Wind Advisory for persistent gusts
over 50 mph. The downslope component will keep temperatures well
above average for late November across the plains, but temperatures
should start to trend downward elsewhere. Even so, high temperatures
5 to 10 degrees above normal will be common.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

The shortwave across the northern and central Rockies Sunday will
exit east into the central U.S. Sunday night into Monday morning. As
this occurs, it will help to send a backdoor cold front through
eastern NM Monday morning with northeast winds in its wake. This
backdoor front will result in a much cooler Monday across eastern
NM. Temperatures on Monday across eastern NM will be around 20 to 25
degrees cooler than Sunday. Winds will be lighter areawide compared
to Sunday due to brief and weak shortwave ridging and lighter
700 mb winds moving over the state.

Moist west and southwest upper level flow quickly moves in across
northwest and north central NM Monday night ahead of the next upper
level trough over the Pacific NW. This will result in orographic
snow across the San Juan and Tusas Mountains along with some light
rain across the northwest plateau come Tuesday. Breezy southwest and
west winds return to the highlands and eastern plains Tuesday
afternoon due to the stronger westerly flow. This southwesterly and
westerly flow will wipe out the effects of the backdoor front and
result in a much warmer Tuesday by around 15 degrees across eastern
NM. Ensembles agree on the trough axis diving southeast over the
Great Basin Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Orographical snow
will continue across the San Juan and Tusas Mountains Tuesday night
with locally higher wind gusts possible across the northern
mountains and adjacent east slopes due to increasing mountain wave
activity. The trough axis moves through the central and southern
Rockies Wednesday with rain and mountain snow coverage peaking
across northwest and far northern areas as a result. Stronger
westerly winds are expected across the central and south central
highlands and mountain ranges due to higher 700 winds of around 40
to 50 kts at the base of the trough. Western and northern NM will be
cooler by a couple degrees behind the Pacific front, while east
central and southeast NM warm up a little more due to downsloping
effects from the west winds.

Winds taper off after sunset and precipitation gradually wanes from
west to east overnight as the shortwave trough exits into the
southern Great Plains. The associated Pacific and backdoor fronts
and dry northwest flow behind the shortwave will result in a colder
Thanksgiving Day, especially across central and eastern NM, with
temperatures slightly to as much as 10 degrees below average.
Temperatures moderate closer to late November averages on Black
Friday as upper level flow becomes zonal ahead of the next
potential Pacific storm off the California coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR will impact all terminals the next 24 hrs. Patchy cirrus will
increase overnight with strengthening ridge top winds by sunrise.
West/southwest winds will trend stronger Saturday with peak gusts
between 20 and 30KT after 1pm around the higher terrain and the
eastern plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven
days, however, many areas will continue to grapple with poor
ventilation.  Though ventilation rates improve today across western
NM and portions of east central NM, ventilation remains poor
elsewhere. Another concern today are low humidity values. After very
poor recoveries this morning, areas in and around the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains will see several hours (6+) of single digit RH
today. Westerly winds will also increase today, mainly along and
just east of the Central Mountain Chain as well as far western NM,
which will result in elevated fire weather conditions, though some
of these areas still have snow on the ground mitigating any concern.
Westerly winds will increase further on Sunday, with gusts between
35 and 50 mph resulting in another round of elevated to near-
critical fire weather conditions. Ventilation will improve for most
areas, though the Rio Grande Valley will remain poor. A back door
front will arrive Monday morning. This front will cool temperatures
and put a pin in the stronger westerly winds for a day. Breezy to
locally windy conditions return on Tuesday and Wednesday in advance
of and with the next trough crossing NM.  This storm system will
bring rain and snow to lower elevations and snow to the mountains,
mainly north of I-40. This should exit Thanksgiving morning, then
cool and dry conditions with poor ventilation will prevail for the
end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  26  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  64  21  55  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  63  28  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  65  21  60  23 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  64  26  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  66  21  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  68  27  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  66  36  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  67  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  24  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  73  32  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  57  20  50  22 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  57  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  64  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  57  31  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  51  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  53  24  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  54  23  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  65  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  64  29  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  58  32  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  61  28  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  35  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  30  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  31  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  63  27  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  63  31  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  62  26  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  63  31  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  25  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  61  34  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  62  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64  34  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  35  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  60  36  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  62  32  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  66  24  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  60  33  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  63  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  64  33  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  39  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  66  42  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  57  33  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  66  30  65  28 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  58  29  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  68  36  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  72  42  70  29 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  70  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  73  39  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  72  39  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  71  40  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  72  41  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  73  40  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  73  39  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  73  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  76  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  75  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42