Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

576
FXUS64 KEPZ 160445
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1045 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1028 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

 - Quiet weather on Saturday with mostly sunny skies, but still
   breezy in the afternoon. Lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s,
   slightly above average for mid May.

 - Windy west winds again Sunday and Monday, creating critical
   fire weather conditions.

 - Some moisture will push into the eastern areas midweek with a
   slight chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1028 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Little to no change in the forecast from previous forecast packages
with warm temperatures and breezy winds through the weekend and into
early next week.

...SATURDAY & SUNDAY...

Broad, longwave trough across western CONUS will overlay increasing
southwesterly flow aloft starting on Saturday. The first lobe of
energy associated with the longwave trough will race across the
Great Basin and Four Corners regions on Saturday. In response to
that, 993mb surface low will develop over SE Colorado with
sufficient surface troughing across New Mexico. Winds will be breezy
during the afternoon at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph across the
area. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the lower 90s across
the desert lowlands.

On Sunday, strong southwest flow aloft will overlay the region. Sub-
990mb surface low will once again develop over SE Colorado with
strong surface troughing across New Mexico. The tightly packed
surface pressure gradient and upper level jet streak overhead will
promote windy conditions across the area. Winds will be out of the
southwest at 20-30 mph sustained with gusts to 40-45 mph possible.

...MONDAY & TUESDAY...

The aforementioned upper level trough will finally trek across the
Great Basin and Central Rockies on Monday. SWerly flow aloft will
continue overlaying the region with surface troughing across New
Mexico. Winds will be breezy once again at 15-25 mph sustained with
gusts to 35 mph possible. Breezy winds continue on Tuesday with
temperatures dropping below 90 degrees.

...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...

Upper level trough moves east of the region midweek. As it does,
models all agree on a weak low/trough setting up off the Baja coast.
As it does, winds will shift around to the southeast and push the
dryline toward the RGV. Always some question with the initial
westward push with these, but there is decent agreement there will
be some storm chances at least in Hudspeth and Otero counties.
Doesn`t look like much cooling except out in the far east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
will be generally light to low-end breezy through the overnight
our of the W/SW at 7-12 knots. Winds will increase through the day
becoming 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20-25 knots out of
the SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of next week with min RH`s over the lowlands in the single digits
and winds picking up to at least 10-20G30 mph daily with Sunday
and Monday looking like the windiest days when critical
conditions are possible. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for
Sunday, but Saturday will be close with winds just a little short
of critical speeds. High temperatures will constantly be in the
mid 80s to lower 90s through this period as well. Some moisture
will try to move into the far east Wed/Thu and bring a slight
chance for some showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  92  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  90  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               46  68  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              51  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   54  92  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                53  88  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       64  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                56  92  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  96  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               60  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  94  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           66  91  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            54  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  92  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  88  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  54  82  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                50  79  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  76  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  47  83  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                57  87  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                52  89  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  81  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   49  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  87  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  83  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  84  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  88  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  88  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  81  54  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers