Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS64 KEPZ 260441
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1041 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 -  Showers/thunderstorms will be widespread over the area
    through Friday, becoming more isolated Saturday and Sunday.

 -  Lingering monsoon moisture will allow for daily afternoon
    showers and thunderstorms through early next week especially
    in the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Monsoonal moisture remains in place over much of NM though some
mid-level dry air has crept in thanks to a dissipating trough to
our west as reflected on WV imagery and the 00z EPZ sounding.
Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within this moisture, but with
the loss of UL support as compared to yesterday combined with loss
of instability related to this morning`s shower and thunderstorms
has led to a notable down-step compared to yesterday. With the
decrease in activity, I went ahead and ended the Flash Flood Watch
early, although the portion in the Sacs for tomorrow remains in
place.

Heights will slowly rise throughout the day tomorrow but with
moisture remaining in place. CAMs show at least scattered activity
across the CWA. Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be
a concern, but on a more localized scale, thus the ending of the
watch. The exception is the Sacs where south-to-north flow will
promote training of storms leading to a higher risk of excessive
rainfall. That factor combined with existing burn scars is the
reason for the watch tomorrow.

UL high will continue to build through the weekend with a new
center forming toward the Four Corners. Warming and subsidence
aloft from the high as well as a decrease in moisture will lead
to a gradual decrease in storm coverage with only isolated
coverage on Saturday and even less coverage on Sunday.
Nevertheless, enough moisture will hold in place, locked between
the Four Corners high and remaining high over the Southeast, for
just about everyone to see a low risk for storms, generally 15% or
higher. Monsoonal moisture remains in the picture for next week,
but the details begin to get fuzzy. CPC shows a moderate to high
risk of another heavy rainfall event by July 4th.

Temperatures will continue to run below normal through Friday,
approaching normal by Saturday. Next week`s highs will depend on
the amount of moisture in place. The GFS MEX has 99 for El Paso
for next Wednesday, which is above the 75th percentile of the NBM
and the official forecast of 96.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Ongoing SHRA/TSRA is expected to gradually dissipate this evening
with any lingering activity ending or ended for TAF sites by 6z.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, favoring the east and
southeast throughout the day with speeds up to 10 knots. SCT
SHRA/TSRA is expected to redevelop in the afternoon and evening
hours Thursday with RA+, small hail, and gusty winds as the main
concerns. Outside of storms, expect variable mid and high clouds
through the night becoming SCT-BKN050 by afternoon with CB/TCU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Overall, not expecting any critical (or least, very limited in
extent) fire weather areas for the next 7 days. There could be
some areas of elevated fire weather on Saturday and Sunday for the
Gila, driven by min RH dropping below 15 percent, but 20-foot
winds stay well below critical levels. Recent and expected
rainfall is keeping progged ERCs limited to the 50-75th
percentile, even in the Gila. Heavy rainfall over the region will
be the bigger concern for area burn scars and flash flooding like
the Trout fire burn area and Seven Springs burn area through
Friday and again early in the new work week as moisture returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  84  71  91  71 /  80  50  60  50
Sierra Blanca            81  64  84  64 /  80  60  70  50
Las Cruces               81  64  88  66 /  80  60  50  40
Alamogordo               82  63  87  64 /  80  60  60  30
Cloudcroft               62  48  65  48 /  80  50  70  30
Truth or Consequences    83  66  89  67 /  70  50  30  20
Silver City              82  60  84  61 /  50  30  40  20
Deming                   86  66  91  66 /  70  50  40  40
Lordsburg                89  65  91  65 /  40  20  40  20
West El Paso Metro       83  71  88  72 /  80  50  60  50
Dell City                81  66  88  67 /  70  50  60  40
Fort Hancock             86  68  90  71 /  80  60  70  50
Loma Linda               77  64  82  65 /  80  50  60  40
Fabens                   84  69  90  69 /  70  50  60  50
Santa Teresa             83  68  87  68 /  70  50  50  50
White Sands HQ           83  69  88  71 /  80  60  50  40
Jornada Range            82  63  88  66 /  80  60  40  40
Hatch                    85  64  90  66 /  80  60  40  30
Columbus                 88  68  91  68 /  70  40  40  40
Orogrande                80  65  86  66 /  80  60  50  40
Mayhill                  71  53  77  53 /  80  50  80  30
Mescalero                72  52  77  53 /  80  50  70  20
Timberon                 67  50  72  50 /  80  50  70  30
Winston                  76  52  82  53 /  80  50  30  20
Hillsboro                83  59  88  61 /  70  40  40  20
Spaceport                82  61  88  63 /  90  60  40  30
Lake Roberts             83  55  85  55 /  60  30  40  20
Hurley                   83  60  86  61 /  60  40  50  20
Cliff                    90  61  92  62 /  40  20  30  20
Mule Creek               88  58  90  60 /  30  10  20  10
Faywood                  82  62  85  63 /  70  50  50  30
Animas                   89  65  92  65 /  40  30  40  30
Hachita                  87  64  89  63 /  60  40  50  40
Antelope Wells           87  64  89  63 /  50  50  50  40
Cloverdale               85  63  86  63 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown