Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

888
FXUS64 KEPZ 051151
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
551 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Hourly PoP grids were adjusted in the near/short-term to reflect
current satellite/radar imagery and model guidance. PoPs were
trimmed back in Hudspeth County, but still in the "chance"
category.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

 - Sunday will continue to be cool and breezy.

 - Increasing moisture and clouds with chances for isolated to
   scattered showers through Tuesday.

 - Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly
   flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back
   above normal beginning Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

An UL ridge has replaced the trough covering the western CONUS,
but with a split flow pattern and us toward the subtropical jet at
the base of the ridge. Water vapor imagery and GFS analysis show
a weak trough over the Lower Colorado River Valley. This feature
and easterly surface winds is pulling moisture into the
Borderland. At the moment, most of the moisture is aloft via mid
and high clouds, but surface dewpoints will gradually increase
tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, this weak s/w trough will continue
sliding east while weakening. This and some frontal overrunning
will trigger some showers for your Easter. Best chances will be
late morning into the afternoon. Even with the low level
moistening, it will still be pretty dry, so rainfall amounts will
be quite light with most locations that are lucky enough to get
rain only seeing a few hundredths of an inch. The exception may be
Hudspeth County where moisture will be deeper.

We keep the moisture for Monday, but ridging will take over. That
will keep us dry for much of the day, and temperatures will
recover a few degrees. Later Monday though and into the overnight
hours another s/w trough will start cutting through the Desert SW.
It will sharpen as it passes Southern NM, creating another window
for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The trough axis slides out
of here early Tuesday afternoon though both the GFS and Euro have
lingering QPF in the Gila. Effectively though our chances are over
by or before sunset Tuesday.

Drier air pushes in the wake of Monday/ Tuesday`s s/w trough as
broad, low-amplitude ridging slides through the region. This will
warm our temperatures back above normal starting Wednesday and
continuing through the rest of the period.

As we get into Friday and into the weekend, beyond the end of the
forecast period, the pattern becomes more chaotic as a large UL
low takes shape off the West Coast and attempts to draw moisture
ahead of it. For now, it`s a close call as to how much we`ll get
dry slotted, so the NBM`s low POPs for Friday and Saturday are
reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Isolated to
scattered -SHRA develop around KELP this morning, mainly south of
KLRU. VCSH may be extended past 15z for KELP and could include
KLRU depending on radar trends and ground obs. Dry conditions are
forecast outside of KELP today with 15kft CIGs. Some clearing
later in the period. Breezy E-SE winds during the day, gusting to
20-25kts. Winds fall to AOB 10kts tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through midweek. Moisture
levels increase early in the week with a low chance of rain
showers through Tuesday. Best rain chances will be south and
east today with mainly light intensity; breezy southeast winds for
the lowlands. Lighter winds through Tuesday, shifting westerly.
Rain chances progress from west to east Mon-Tue. Lightning risk
will be low early this week, best chance on Tue as a disturbance
pushes through.

Drier conditions beginning Wednesday with modestly breezy west
winds through Thursday, resulting in elevated fire wx conditions.
No fire wx products are anticipated later this week as winds
should stay below critical thresholds and min RHs won`t be super
low. Rain/storm chances look to return late in the week, mainly
out east as a dryline tries to poke in. Confidence is low in where
the dryline sets up, if it develops. Temperatures stay below
normal early in the week, then warming to above average Wed-Thu.

Min RHs range from 15-35% through Tue, then 10-25% Wed/Thu. Vent
rates will be good to very good today, then poor to good Mon; very
good to excellent Wed onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  46  70  53  77 /  10   0  40  30
Sierra Blanca            39  64  46  72 /  30   0  50  40
Las Cruces               41  67  48  74 /  10   0  40  30
Alamogordo               37  70  45  73 /  10   0  30  50
Cloudcroft               27  49  33  50 /  10  10  40  60
Truth or Consequences    44  67  50  74 /  10  10  40  50
Silver City              39  62  43  71 /  10  10  50  30
Deming                   43  68  48  78 /  10  10  40  30
Lordsburg                44  67  45  78 /   0   0  20  10
West El Paso Metro       47  69  54  76 /  10   0  40  30
Dell City                38  69  45  73 /  10   0  30  40
Fort Hancock             44  71  51  80 /  20   0  50  40
Loma Linda               41  63  48  69 /  10   0  40  40
Fabens                   44  71  52  79 /  10   0  40  30
Santa Teresa             42  69  50  76 /  10   0  50  30
White Sands HQ           45  68  53  75 /  10   0  40  40
Jornada Range            37  69  45  74 /  10   0  40  40
Hatch                    39  71  48  77 /  10  10  50  40
Columbus                 46  70  52  79 /  10   0  30  10
Orogrande                39  68  48  73 /  10   0  40  50
Mayhill                  29  61  36  62 /  10   0  30  60
Mescalero                29  61  35  62 /  10  10  30  60
Timberon                 30  56  36  58 /  10  10  40  60
Winston                  30  61  38  68 /  10  10  40  50
Hillsboro                40  66  47  72 /  10  10  50  40
Spaceport                36  69  45  74 /  10  10  40  40
Lake Roberts             36  64  40  69 /  10  10  50  40
Hurley                   38  63  42  72 /  10  10  40  30
Cliff                    40  71  43  78 /   0  10  40  30
Mule Creek               40  67  43  76 /  10  10  30  20
Faywood                  40  63  45  71 /  10  10  50  30
Animas                   44  69  46  79 /   0   0  20  10
Hachita                  42  68  47  78 /  10   0  30  10
Antelope Wells           43  70  47  80 /   0   0  20  10
Cloverdale               44  68  47  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson