Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

606
FXUS64 KEPZ 100442
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1042 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.

 -  Chance of thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, but mostly
    limited to Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

 -  Seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with heat
    building Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Broad weak upper low over northern New Mexico with layered
moisture extending east and west from it. Some of the moisture was
able to form isolated thunderstorms near and just into our
northern CWA Monday evening. Outflow from those storms has rapidly
dropped south and as of late Monday evening extended from about
Deming-Vado-Chaparral and east of Orogrande. Radar velocity data
shows only modest speeds in the 20-30 mph range, although some
sites much further north in Otero County did show gusts of 35-50
mph. This outflow should reach the El Paso metro area within the
next hour. No storms have been able to form on the outflow as its
moving into mostly very dry air. Models all show northerly flow
over much of the area diminishing overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday...should be our best days for thunderstorms,
as that weak upper trough drops south over the CWA Tuesday and
then gradually lifts out Wednesday. The eastern moisture does move
into much of our area Tuesday, so all areas will see some chance
of thunderstorms, but the best chances are over the mountains and
Rio Grande Valley east. Modest CAPE values and little in the way
of shear, suggest most storms should remain sub-severe. However
high DCAPE values show some severe wind gust potential. Wednesday,
the best chance of thunderstorms will be over the mountains and
east of the RG Valley, as the lifted out trough begins moving
drier air into the CWA from the west. These will be the last days
with seasonable temperatures as....

Thursday through the weekend...heats up strongly. Triple digits
are possible Thursday as eastern Pacific ridge begins Balduin
north and eastward. By Friday and Saturday 500 mb heights over the
CWA approach and then exceed 5900 gpm and reaching as high as
5960 gpm Sunday. Thus another cooker in store and by Saturday
through Monday temps could be surpass Heat Advisory criteria.
Despite this presence of the strong high over us, some residual
moisture remains over the far east, so can`t completely rule our a
storm far eastern CWA, mainly the Sacs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

VFR conditions through 18Z Tuesday with SKC-SCT250. After
18Z...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop, initially
over the mountains and then migrating to the lowlands after 21Z.
Large outflow dropping down from the north will keep a northerly
wind of 8-12 knots overnight. Thunderstorms redeveloping over the
mountains by 18Z Tuesday and then quickly developing over the
lowlands from 21-00Z. Strong winds look to be the main threat,
with gust potential of 40-50 knots. For TAF sites, KTCS has the
best shot at storms, with the other sites a bit less chance a few
hours later.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Moisture via the dry line will try and push west this evening into
the overnight hours supporting moderate to good recoveries, mainly
along and west of the Continental Divide. The dryline will push back
to the east some to about the Rio Grande with single digit min RH
values west of it. East of the boundary, there will be a low to
moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds the
main concern with a low risk for dry lightning, mainly in the
lowlands. Moisture will again retreat back to the west overnight
Tuesday night before heading east again on Wednesday. Once again,
areas east of the boundary will see a chance for thunderstorms
but more isolated than Tuesday. By this weekend, high pressure
will dominate the area leading to hot to very hot conditions with
low afternoon humidity.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light throughout the period,
topping out around 10 to 15 MPH with some gustiness. Venting will
range good to very good for Tuesday but will range very good to
excellent for the rest of the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  97  69  98 /   0  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            63  92  61  92 /  10  30  30  30
Las Cruces               64  92  62  95 /   0  20  20  10
Alamogordo               62  91  61  93 /  20  60  40  30
Cloudcroft               48  68  46  70 /  20  80  40  50
Truth or Consequences    65  90  65  94 /  10  40  20  30
Silver City              58  87  59  90 /   0  30  10  30
Deming                   63  96  63  98 /   0  20  10  10
Lordsburg                60  94  62  96 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       69  94  70  95 /   0  20  20  10
Dell City                66  92  62  93 /  20  50  30  30
Fort Hancock             67 100  67  99 /   0  30  20  20
Loma Linda               64  89  62  89 /   0  30  30  20
Fabens                   67  98  67  98 /   0  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             65  93  64  95 /   0  20  20  10
White Sands HQ           69  92  68  95 /  10  30  30  20
Jornada Range            61  92  61  94 /  10  40  20  20
Hatch                    62  94  62  97 /  10  40  20  20
Columbus                 67  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                65  91  63  92 /  10  40  30  20
Mayhill                  51  77  50  80 /  30  70  40  60
Mescalero                51  79  50  81 /  30  70  40  50
Timberon                 51  77  49  78 /  20  70  40  50
Winston                  51  82  51  86 /  10  60  20  40
Hillsboro                60  89  59  92 /  10  40  10  40
Spaceport                59  90  59  93 /  10  40  20  20
Lake Roberts             54  87  54  90 /  10  40  10  40
Hurley                   57  90  58  93 /   0  20  10  20
Cliff                    58  93  59  97 /   0  20  10  20
Mule Creek               57  90  58  93 /   0  10  10  10
Faywood                  61  88  60  91 /   0  30  10  20
Animas                   61  95  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  60  94  61  96 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           62  94  63  96 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale               61  88  62  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner