Hobbs, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

740
FXUS64 KMAF 021150
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
650 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Strong winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions
  will impact portions of west and southwest Texas today.

- Rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend. The
  best chances of measurable rainfall are over southeast New
  Mexico/the Permian Basin during the Friday night through
  Saturday afternoon timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Radar imagery and surface observations show a cold front quickly
pushing southeastward to near the I-20 corridor as of 4 AM CDT.
Winds are shifting northwesterly behind the front, with sustained
winds up to 20-30 mph with some gusts around 40 mph noted along the
initial frontal passage. These strong winds are resulting in a few
areas of blowing dust reducing visibility to 1-3 miles in a few
places this morning. The front should push into the Trans Pecos
region this morning before stalling this afternoon. A longwave
trough will continue to carve across much of the western CONUS today
and tonight, allowing flow aloft to transition more southwesterly
across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Surface low pressure
is forecast to develop over the Big Bend Region this afternoon. A
tight surface pressure gradient to the north of this feature, along
with some mixing of stronger winds alot will bring windy conditions
to western and southwestern portion of our forecast area this
afternoon into early evening. Some of the high resolution guidance
suggests westerly winds will increase to 25-35 mph with a few gusts
up to near 50 mph this afternoon from the Van Horn Corridor to the
southwest mountains/Big Bend region. These stronger winds will
result in areas of blowing dust, while plumes of dust could also
spread into these areas from the west later today. We have opted to
issue a Wind and Blowing Dust Advisory for the Van Horn Corridor,
Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley, and much of the Big
Bend region this afternoon into early this evening. A High Wind
Warning was also issued for the Guadalupe Mountains, where winds up
to 35-45 mph with gusts to near 60 mph are expected this afternoon
into this evening. Highs will warm into the 80s and 90s over much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend region, while cooler temperatures in
the 60s and 70s are anticipated over southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin behind the
front.

A series of shortwave impulses embedded within southwesterly flow
aloft will translate across west Texas tonight. Limited low level
moisture may return back into the Permian Basin late tonight, though
overall moisture quality in the lower levels of the atmosphere will
not be stellar with surface dewpoints forecast to only rise into the
30s around 40 degrees at best per the latest guidance. There still
looks to be enough moisture in the mid/upper levels of the
atmosphere along with some forcing for ascent courtesy of the
shortwave impulses to aid in the development of a few convective
showers over portions of the Permian Basin if not far southeast NM
late tonight. We will keep rain chances low, generally between 20-
30% along and east of a Tatum NM to Big Lake line tonight, except
near 40% near Gail, Snyder, Colorado City late where low level
moisture quality may be most favorable for a few showers and perhaps
even an isolated thunderstorm or two over the eastern Basin, where
forecast soundings reveal some very weak elevated CAPE tonight.
Rainfall amounts if any should be very light. Lows tonight range in
the 40s and 50s except lower 60s along the Rio Grande. Dry slotting
in southwesterly flow prevails on Thursday, so expect dry conditions
through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The long term forecast starts with a mid-level trough approaching
southeast New Mexico and West Texas, bringing chances of
precipitation beginning Thursday night. A cold front should move
through our northern counties just before midnight. PoPs are highest
in southeast New Mexico and over the mountains due to frontal and
orographic lifting before midnight. However, low-level moisture
looks poor during this timeframe so mist/sprinkles are more likely
than measurable rainfall. The lower troposphere is expected to
moisten up some after midnight (particularly across the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos), but measurable rainfall will remain
unlikely.

The aforementioned mid-level trough pushes eastward Friday
afternoon/night and low-level moisture increases over much of the
region. This will bring higher chances of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Increased clouds behind the
cold front drops Friday`s highs into the 50s and 60s over southeast
New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Spots further south will likely
stay in the 70s and 80s as the cold front stalls. Another cold front
pushes through northern portions of the CWA Saturday, bringing
additional chances of rain. The highest chances of rainfall look to
be in southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin as an
upper jet provides large scale ascent to these areas. As a result,
the best chances of measurable rainfall will be during the Friday
night through Saturday afternoon timeframe. Lows in the 30s are
expected for most Saturday night behind the second cold front. Some
light snow accumulations are possible in the Guadalupe Mountains
Saturday night as tempertures are forecast to dip below freezing.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate mid-level
ridging early next week, allowing for warmer temperatures to return.
Highs are currently forecast to be in the 60s/70s Monday and 70s for
most on Tuesday.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR will generally remain prevalent across the region today. The
exception could be reductions in visibility to MVFR to IFR thresholds
as patchy to areas of blowing dust develop mainly along and west
of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. Westerly winds will
increase to 15-25 knots with some gusts over 30 knots possible
around KCNM and KHOB this afternoon. Winds should decrease this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Another day of near-critical to critical fire weather is expected in
our southwestern counties today as a low-level a thermal ridge
brings warm temperatures and tightened pressure gradients. High
southwesterly winds, below critical minRHs, and ERCs in the 75th+
percentile has prompted us to issue a Red Flag Warning for these
regions. Fire weather concerns diminish after today as chances of
rain increase, winds become lighter, and ERCs gradually improve
slightly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               80  53  78  52 /   0  30   0  70
Carlsbad                 74  47  69  47 /   0  10   0  60
Dryden                   90  60  87  58 /   0  10   0  40
Fort Stockton            84  53  78  53 /  10  10   0  50
Guadalupe Pass           65  41  59  45 /   0   0   0  50
Hobbs                    72  47  68  45 /   0  10   0  70
Marfa                    79  44  74  46 /  10   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     80  52  77  52 /   0  20   0  60
Odessa                   79  52  75  53 /   0  10   0  50
Wink                     80  49  77  50 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 1
     AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to
     9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Marfa
     Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21