Deming, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS64 KEPZ 222323
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
423 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 422 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Near-record warmth this week, lowland highs in the lower to
   mid seventies.

 - Increasing clouds midweek with low chance of rain showers west
   of the Continental Divide.

 - Cooler temperatures, closer to normal, arrive next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Models start out in good agreement with upper ridge shifting east,
a fairly potent upper low moving toward the West Coast and flow
over the area becoming southwest. This will keep temperatures well
above normal with some more records likely. There will be some
increased mid/high clouds moving in starting Wed which will have
some effects on temperatures. There will also be some increase in
dew points at the surface which will help overnight lows from
falling off as much as they have recently. There will be some low
precip chances, mainly over the Gila region Wed into Thu. NBM PoPs
were up over 50 percent but looking at latest ensemble means and
NBM 5.0, these chances seemed high and did taper off some but kept
low chance PoPs in for NW Grant county with lesser chances east
and south.

As we head into the weekend, models start to diverge. The
differences come from how the Pacific storm system progresses. EC
is progressive and opens up system and puts the area in northwest
flow with a fairly potent back door cold front. The GFS cuts off
the low again off the southern CA coast and keeps the area in SW
flow with some subtropical moisture moving up over the area while
pushing through a weaker cold front than the EC. Each models
ensemble mean supports the deterministic so it`s definitely a low
confidence forecast. Current thinking though is how things have
developed recently, the cutoff somewhere off CA is more likely.
NBM temps seem to support this, but PoPs again seemed awful high
with chance across the area. Did taper these down a little bit.
Temperatures either way do fall back at least to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VMC through forecast period with very light surface winds. SKC
beginning SKC tonight, becoming FEW-SCT250 after sunrise Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Very warm temperatures continue through much of the work week. Low
RH`s in the teens will start to rise going into Wed and moreso Thu
as some low level moisture moves in with flow turning southwest.
There will be some light precipitation, mainly over the Gila
region Wed/Thu but think any total precip totals will be under a
quarter inch, likely under a tenth of an inch. Some cooler
temperatures arrive going into the weekend as a cold front pushes
through. Vent rates will be poor over the lowlands with fair to
good in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  76  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            44  74  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               38  71  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               39  72  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  57  39  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    40  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              43  69  44  62 /   0   0  10  20
Deming                   38  74  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                38  73  38  66 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       46  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                34  75  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             42  80  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               47  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   41  76  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             39  72  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           47  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            35  71  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    35  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 40  72  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                40  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  39  71  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                37  69  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 36  66  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  34  67  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                42  71  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                34  71  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             38  70  24  61 /   0   0  10  20
Hurley                   39  70  39  65 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    36  76  30  68 /   0   0  20  20
Mule Creek               37  72  29  63 /   0   0  30  30
Faywood                  44  70  41  65 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   39  75  36  68 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  36  73  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           40  74  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  72  49  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt