Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS64 KEPZ 230431
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
931 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 930 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

 - Quiet weather pattern through the period with dry conditions;
   breezy to windy afternoon winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

 - Near record warmth the on Wednesday and again next weekend,
   with lowland high temperatures in the lower to mid eighties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 930 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

This morning an east push moved across the region swinging our
winds around to the east. I can`t call it a cold front, since our
temperatures went up behind the wind shift. Aloft, an upper level
ridge will be over northern Mexico on Monday, before drifting
back westward to just off the Baja California where it will stay
for much of the week. The influence of the ridge will allow a
significant warming trend to take place this week and keep us dry
through next weekend. Monday will have generally light winds as
the ridge aloft is closer to our region. High temperatures on
Monday will run a few degree above average.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper level ridge backs to the
west, it will put us in the dry northwest flow aloft. A pair of
short wave troughs will slide down the front side of the ridge.
Both the troughs will help give us breezy (Tuesday) to windy
(Wednesday) winds. We could see a few area of blowing dust on
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will jump with the westerly
winds. Tuesday`s highs will run 10 to 12 degrees above average,
while Wednesday will be near records with readings running 13 to
17 degrees above average. We will see less winds on Thrusday and
Friday and our high temperatures will drop a couple of degrees.
Then for the weekend, the upper level ridge will flatten and push
east across northern Mexico, which will again push our high
temperatures both Saturday and Sunday to near record high
values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 930 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

We will have quiet VFR conditions tonight, Monday and into Monday
evening. Most of the high ceilings of BKN250 have moved off and
we will have unlimited ceilings, tonight through Monday night. Our
low end gusty winds have dropped off across the area. We won`t
see a return to wind gusts until Tuesday and Wednesday. For
tonight we will have light and variable or light southeasterly
winds. Those light east or southeast winds will continue through
much of the day on Monday into Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

We will remain in a warm and dry weather pattern throughout the
period. Winds will be breezy this afternoon, especially along the
International Border, but below any critical thresholds. Min RH
values will be well into the teens. Even drier conditions are
forecast for Monday and Tuesday as min RH values approach 10%.
Tuesday will see modestly breezy winds, but no critical
conditions.

Wednesday will see elevated fire concerns as winds top out between
20 and 25 MPH with min RH values in the mid teens in the lowlands
with 20s in the mountains. Give ERCs in the 50th percentile, marginally
critical RH values, and winds just above critical thresholds, I
will abstain from any fire headlines on this forecast update.

Venting category will be good across the International Border
today with fair to poor elsewhere for today. Venting will be poor
all areas for Monday with the light winds. By Tuesday, venting
will improve to the good to very good category with very good to
excellent venting on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  37  68  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            31  64  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               31  65  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               31  65  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               25  49  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    32  65  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              32  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   33  67  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                37  66  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       39  67  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                28  65  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             35  71  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               34  62  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   36  70  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             34  65  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           36  66  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            29  66  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    29  68  34  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 35  67  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                31  65  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  27  62  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 30  55  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  24  61  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                32  65  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                27  65  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             28  65  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   30  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    30  70  33  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               30  67  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  33  62  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   33  67  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  33  66  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           32  67  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice