Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

746
FXUS64 KEPZ 081651
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Hot temperatures continue through Monday with a slight cool
    down Tuesday and Wednesday due to increasing rain chances.

 -  Best chance for rain midweek is over the mountains and east
    of the Rio Grande Valley.

 -  Hot temperatures return with most areas back above 100 degrees
    by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Weak upper low off the CA coast will be the main player in the
weather across the area for the first part of the week. This low
will start to push across the Desert Southwest and allow moisture
to push into the Borderland from the northeast. Models differ
somewhat on when and how far west the moisture gets with the NAM
the most aggressive with the moisture/cooler air push than the GFS
and EC for Mon. GFS is then the outlier for Tue. Will generally go
with the model consensus and keep things hot for Mon for much of
the CWA but cool things down more significantly Tue. By late in
the week much stronger ridge than this weekend starts to build and
temperatures quickly return back above 100 degrees.

Dry air over the area tonight will allow for overnight lows to
cool off nicely into the 60s for most of the area except around
KELP. For Monday, there will be some moisture that pushes into the
northern areas which will be enough to trigger a few
thunderstorms over the mountains. Anything that fires in the Gila
region could have some dry lighting with it. High temperatures
will cool slightly by about 2-5 degrees so no need for the Heat
Advisory to be continued. As we go into Tue, that weak upper low
will move into southern NM and allow the moisture to push further
west. GFS as I said earlier is an outlier and mixes out the
moisture quite a bit more over far west TX and into southern Dona
Ana and Otero counties. Think this is overdoing the mixing with
the weak upper low overhead and don`t see such a strong southwest
wind developing over this area. What that leads to is at least
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the lowlands and
high scattered to numerous mountain storms. Decent instability and
some shear could support a few strong to severe storms. NBM PoPs
seem overdone near the RGV of NM and in the mountains, so tapered
down some. High temps will stay below 100 with some mid to upper
80s even possible out east where moisture will be deepest.

The upper low will start to push into northern TX/OK by Wed with
a weak northwest flow over the area. Enough moisture lingers for
some isolated storms across the north and then possibly pushing
into the lowlands of our eastern zones. Temperatures will warm
back up a little with 90s areawide and possibly a few 100s in the
lower RGV.

Upper ridge starts to build the end of the week into next weekend,
even stronger than the current one. High temps look to be at least
100-105 for the lowlands by Saturday and this may be underdoing
it. Will raise NBM temps a few degrees since it looks like there
will be some Heat Advisories needed going into this period and it
could be an extended period of extreme heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

P6SM SKC through most of the period with west winds increasing
this afternoon to 10-15G25KTS. Winds decrease to at southern
terminals overnight to AOB 12KTS but around KTCS will be shifting
to the north after 06Z and stay in the 10-15G25KT range. Winds
over Otero and Hudspeth counties will be shifting to the east to
northeast by sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Temperatures will be dropping into the 90s for much of the region
for the first part of this week as a weak upper trough moves into
the area. This will allow for a brief moisture push, at least for
northern and eastern areas. Isolated storms over the mountains for
Monday could bring a little dry lightning over the Gila region.
Better moisture and higher RH`s for Tuesday will bring better
thunderstorm chances with wetting rains. A few lingering storms
Wednesday with temps near average and RH`s ranging from 10 percent
west to 20 percent east, higher in the Sacs. Strong upper ridge
starts to rebuild for late in the week with very hot and dry
conditions returning going into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71 101  70  96 /   0   0  10  30
Sierra Blanca            64  96  64  89 /   0  10  30  50
Las Cruces               63  96  63  92 /   0   0  10  30
Alamogordo               63  96  61  89 /   0  10  30  40
Cloudcroft               49  73  47  66 /   0  30  40  60
Truth or Consequences    67  94  65  90 /   0  10  20  40
Silver City              59  90  57  86 /   0  10  10  30
Deming                   61  99  63  95 /   0   0  10  20
Lordsburg                59  96  61  93 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro       71  98  70  93 /   0   0  10  30
Dell City                64  96  65  89 /   0  10  30  50
Fort Hancock             67 103  69  97 /   0  10  20  40
Loma Linda               66  92  63  87 /   0  10  20  40
Fabens                   66 101  69  95 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Teresa             65  97  66  92 /   0   0  10  30
White Sands HQ           71  98  70  92 /   0   0  20  30
Jornada Range            61  96  61  91 /   0  10  20  30
Hatch                    61  99  63  95 /   0  10  10  30
Columbus                 68  99  67  95 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande                64  95  64  89 /   0  10  30  40
Mayhill                  51  81  52  76 /   0  40  40  60
Mescalero                53  83  51  77 /   0  30  30  60
Timberon                 51  81  50  75 /   0  20  30  50
Winston                  54  86  50  82 /   0  20  20  40
Hillsboro                63  95  59  89 /   0  10  20  40
Spaceport                60  95  59  90 /   0  10  20  40
Lake Roberts             53  91  52  87 /   0  10  10  30
Hurley                   58  93  56  89 /   0   0  10  30
Cliff                    57  96  57  93 /   0   0  10  20
Mule Creek               57  92  56  89 /   0   0  10  20
Faywood                  61  92  60  87 /   0   0  10  30
Animas                   61  97  61  94 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  60  96  61  93 /   0   0  10  20
Antelope Wells           61  96  61  93 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               61  91  61  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz