Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

390
FXUS64 KEPZ 281648
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1048 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

 - Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5
   to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each
   afternoon, with a slight decrease for the weekend.

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
   out west with a few instances of flash flooding possible.
   Lower storm chances through midweek.

 - Thunderstorm chances look to increase into the weekend,
   favoring area mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today will see the best (worst?) of both worlds as very hot
temperatures expand across the RGV/eastward and monsoonal moisture
sets up out west. The upper high sits over E NM today, allowing
lowland temps to climb to about 105 and warranting Heat
Advisories. Moisture rotates around the western periphery of the
high, bringing isolated to scattered storm chances out west this
afternoon and evening. Slow storm motions to the northwest and
PWs around 1.2" will result in flash flood potential west of the
Divide. HREF max 6-hr rainfall shows up to 2" of rain with
consistent bulls-eyes in the NM Bootheel this evening. Somewhat
lower amounts are forecast in the Gila this afternoon before
focusing further south. With saturated soils from recent rainfall
and this heavy rain potential, Flood Watches have been posted.
Mainly dry conditions are expected from Deming eastward.

The upper high doesn`t move much through Thu, flattening out a bit
due to a shortwave passing through the Central Rockies. Moisture
levels decrease somewhat out west through midweek with lower storm
chances than today. Temps stay above normal through the workweek
with more Heat Advisories likely, especially on Fri as the high
stretches west.

Heading into the weekend, the high parks itself over AZ, allowing
moisture and shortwaves to rotate in from the north. Scattered
mtn storms are modeled each afternoon, drifting to the south and
west with more isolated coverage in the lowlands. Gusty outflows
and blowing dust are possible for the lowlands. Better moisture
and storm chances will slightly lower highs towards 100 for the
lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Low storm chances W of KDMN this afternoon and evening with dry
conditions expected for all terminals. Gusty outflows over 30kts
possible in the evening from W-NW, favoring KDMN and KTCS. BLDU
may reduce VIS to 3 SM at KDMN from outflow. Winds AOB 10kts
outside of outflows, favoring S-SE direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered storms develop out west this afternoon with
some heavy rain/flash flood potential. Frequent lightning and
outflow gusts to 40 mph are possible into the evening. Most areas
remain dry today with light S-SE winds and temps above normal.
Storm chances decrease Wed/Thu to the west as temps remain hot.
Area mtns will see better storm chances into the weekend with
spotty coverage in the lowlands. Temps cool off slightly for the
weekend. Winds remain light from the southeast this week.

Min RHs range from 12-30% through Fri. Vent rates will be good to
very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 106  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69 100  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               71 103  71 102 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               73 103  72 104 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               56  80  54  79 /  10  10  10  20
Truth or Consequences    73 102  74 102 /  20   0  10   0
Silver City              64  95  66  95 /  30  20  20  30
Deming                   71 103  72 103 /  20   0  10   0
Lordsburg                70 101  72 101 /  20  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro       78 105  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                71 103  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             76 107  76 107 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               70  98  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   76 106  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             75 103  75 102 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           78 105  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
Jornada Range            74 103  74 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    73 106  73 105 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                 75 105  76 104 /  20   0  10   0
Orogrande                72 103  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  61  90  59  90 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                60  92  59  91 /  10  10  10  20
Timberon                 58  89  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  63  93  64  93 /  30  10  20  30
Hillsboro                71 100  71 100 /  20  10  10  10
Spaceport                71 102  71 101 /  10   0  10   0
Lake Roberts             59  95  60  95 /  30  30  10  60
Hurley                   65  98  67  98 /  20  10  10  20
Cliff                    65 101  68 101 /  20  10  20  20
Mule Creek               63  97  66  97 /  20  10  20  10
Faywood                  68  98  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
Animas                   69 101  72 103 /  40  10  10  10
Hachita                  69 100  71 102 /  20  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           69 100  70 100 /  20  10  20  10
Cloverdale               65  94  66  95 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver
     City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County-
     Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla
     Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson