Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

540
FXUS64 KEPZ 230502
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1002 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Record warmth this week, lowland highs in the lower to mid
   seventies.

 - Increasing clouds Wednesday and Thursday with a low chance of
   rain showers west of the Continental Divide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
Broad upper high remains fixed across the Gulf states with a
stagnant longwave trough over the Pacific Ocean. The El Paso
region sits under southwest flow between these two systems, which
has contributed to the record-setting warmth this past week.

Very minimal changes to the ongoing heat wave for Tuesday. Lowland
highs will reach into the lower to mid 70s, currently running 15
to 20 degrees warmer than normal for late December. El Paso will
likely break another daily record high. Winds will be very light
out of the southeast along with scattered cirrus.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Upper wave ahead of the primary jet flow will bring rain chances
for much of Arizona beginning on Wednesday. Even further east, our
area will see an increase in cloud coverage associated with this
wave. Moistening will occur from the top-down, with El Paso going
mostly cloudy by Christmas Eve night (apologies to Santa
viewers). Cloud will do very little to hinder the ongoing warmth
on Thursday. The forecast high of 76 degrees for El Paso on
Christmas Day would be the warmest on record if realized (current
record is 75 degrees in 1933).

Slight (15-30%) chance of rain showers for areas west of the
Continental Divide Wednesday evening into Thursday. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated light rain around Lordsburg, Mule
Creek, and Gila but likely no further east. Rio Grande valley and
El Paso are expected to remain dry.

More dry and very warm weather on Friday under southwest flow,
likely breaking more daily record highs.

...NEXT WEEKEND...
Global models show good agreement in the development of a Rex
blocking pattern along the Pacific coast next weekend. The
eventual evolution of the Pacific cutoff low at the base of this
pattern will greatly determine the weather forecast for next
weekend and the last few days of the year. El Paso`s region would
be positioned under the diffluent southwest flow ahead of the low,
thus opening the door for widespread precipitation chances as
both Pacific and Gulf of America moisture is advected north into
the area.

Confidence is also increasing in a polar surface high developing across
the central Plains around the Sunday-Monday timeframe, which would
force a cold front and cool us back down to near normal (lowland
highs in the mid to upper 50s) before New Year`s Eve. There`s
always a chance that when cold air intrusions are timed well with
Pacific low pressure systems, wintry precipitation is possible.
Will need to monitor model trends over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VMC through forecast period with very light surface winds
overnight. Light southeast flow AOB 5 knots tomorrow. Skies
beginning SKC-FEW250 tonight, then SCT-BKN250 after sunrise
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Very warm temperatures continue through much of the work week.
Low RH`s in the teens will start to rise going into Wed and
moreso Thu as some low level moisture moves in with flow turning
southwest. There will be some light precipitation, mainly over the
Gila region Wed/Thu but think any total precip totals will be
under a quarter inch, likely under a tenth of an inch. Some cooler
temperatures arrive going into the weekend as a cold front pushes
through. Vent rates will be poor over the lowlands with fair to
good in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  75  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            44  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               38  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               39  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  57  39  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    40  70  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              43  69  44  64 /   0   0   0  20
Deming                   38  74  41  73 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                38  73  41  67 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro       46  73  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                34  75  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             42  80  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               47  71  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   41  77  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             39  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           47  73  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            35  72  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    35  74  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 40  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                40  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  39  72  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                37  68  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 36  65  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  34  67  37  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                42  70  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                34  71  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             38  70  40  63 /   0   0   0  30
Hurley                   39  70  42  68 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                    36  76  40  68 /   0   0  10  30
Mule Creek               37  72  40  63 /   0   0  20  50
Faywood                  44  70  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   39  75  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  36  72  41  70 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           40  75  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               49  72  49  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt