Aztec, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS65 KABQ 051910
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
110 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Seasonable temperatures return with chances for showers and
  storms Monday and Tuesday. Main hazards will be gusty and
  erratic winds and dry lightning, which could lead to future fire
  starts. Low confidence exists for wetting rainfall.

- After a quiet and warmer Wednesday, more unsettled weather will
  round out the week with chances for showers, thunderstorms and
  gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Split flow has become established with the polar jet dipping out of
western Canada and into the eastern ConUS while the subtropical
segment crosses Mexico and the deep southern states. This is leaving
a lighter wind field aloft over NM with a weak ridge over the Great
Basin and southwestern states. Breezes will consequently remain
light to moderate (10-25 mph) for the most part today, except in
northeastern zones where gusts will be closer to 30-35 mph thanks to
a tighter surface gradient there. There is enough mid level moisture
present along with some easterly upslope flow to kick off high-based
and low-topped thunderstorms near and west of the Big Bend area into
eastern Chihuahua. It is looking less likely that any appreciable
moisture will make it into our southwestern zones today, but a stray
virga shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Mid to high level clouds will increase much more significantly
into Monday morning with western areas of NM observing the most
mid level moisture advection as a shortwave trough moves across
the lower CO river basin and spreads weak diffluent flow our way.
This will increase the chances for high-based showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon. The lee-side surface trough will
hug close to the front range again on Monday with a tight surface
gradient producing another round of gusty winds (up to 30-35 mph
again) in our northeastern NM zones. High temperatures on Monday
would run a degree or two withing today`s readings.

The shortwave trough will continue trekking eastward, moving out of
AZ and into NM Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This will
spread more mid level (700-500 mb layer) moisture into NM with
temperature/humidity profiles evolving from inverted-V signatures to
more of a moist adiabat with top-down moistening toward the surface.
Any dry storms or virga Monday evening would consequently transition
to more of a garden variety light shower with low QPF of generally
just a few hundredths of an inch through early Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The shortwave trough feature still does not look to host much of a
temperature gradient or thermal trough through the day Tuesday, but
weak destabilization will persist with lots of areas nearing
saturation at the 700 mb level. This will help spread isolated to
scattered showers over a large majority of the forecast area, but
again weak forcing and the marginally convective nature should limit
the QPF to less than 0.1 inch for most areas outside of the northern
mountains. Temperatures would not alter all that much Tuesday, and
breezy to windy conditions will redevelop again in east central to
northeastern zones. Rain showers and any thunderstorms will wane
Tuesday evening as the shortwave trough pushes east of NM.

West northwest flow aloft will then prevail into Wednesday with a
subtle ridge upstream to our west an a low moving eastward along the
Canadian border. This will spell drier, warmer, and breezy
conditions for Wednesday. As Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
approach, an upstream low pressure system will move off of the
eastern Pacific into southern CA, spread diffluent and stronger
southwesterlies aloft into NM. At the surface, moisture from the
Gulf will advect into west TX and portions of eastern NM, setting up
the seasonal dryline, our favored mechanism to trigger afternoon and
evening convection this time of year. Previous NBM guidance was
lagging considerably from deterministic guidance for Thursday, but
seems to be latching on to the deeper boundary layer moisture
staying in west TX with a reduction to just isolated (10-20%) POPs.
On Friday, however, the NBM appears a bit too aggressive with its
westward spread of POPs as far as the Rio Grande valley, despite the
better moisture (dewpoints of 40+ F) staying east of the central
mountain chain. Discrepancies then grow among the latest
deterministic models into Sunday due to uncertainties with regards
to the track that the low will eject along.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Scattered mid to high level clouds are entering southern portions
of New Mexico, and some of these will struggle to get into central
areas of the state. A few high-based weak showers may develop over
southwestern and south central high terrain areas just before
dusk, but these will produce little, if any, appreciable rain.
Instead, gusty outflow winds will accompany any of this shower
activity. Otherwise prevailing breezes will tend to be light to
moderate (5 to 25 kt) with a few higher gusts in northeastern
areas of New Mexico. VFR conditions will hold.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Prevailing winds will remain strongest in northeastern NM today
where gusts may occasionally hit 30 to 35 mph, enough for marginal
or spotty critical conditions where humidity will also be hovering
near the 15% criteria. No Red Flag Warning has been issued, but
concerns are mounting, especially going into the very similar
pattern that will follow in this area on Monday with very high
Energy Release Components (ERCs). Otherwise today, faint moisture
increases may lead to a stray high-based virga shower or two over
southwestern NM, but the threat for any dry lightning is not as
prominent today. However, any showers will be capable of producing a
localized gusty wind threat.

A redeveloping lee-side surface trough hugging the CO front range
will once again lead to another round of windy conditions in
northeastern zones on Monday, where a lower end, but still critical,
threat will develop in the afternoon. Given the high ERCs (climbing
to ~87th to 90th percentile), will go ahead and hoist a Fire Weather
Watch for the northeast highlands and far northeastern plains for
Monday. The other concern will take shape in western NM where
additional mid level moisture will arrive and initiate a few high-
based dry thunderstorms late in the afternoon. These would have the
low, but present, potential to produce new ignitions while fanning
said activity with gusty outflows.

Moisture increases more Monday evening through Tuesday with light
rainfall spreading eastward into more of the forecast area upon the
arrival of a weak trough aloft. Unfortunately, rainfall will likely
stay below 0.1 inch for most, but humidity will get a boost upward
on Tuesday due to the increased clouds, showers, and storm activity.
Lightning and a new ignition threat will be present, but minimal on
Tuesday. Prevailing winds will again be strongest in east central to
northeastern NM Tuesday where gusts may occasionally high 25 to 30
mph.

A shift to drier, warmer, and breezy conditions arrives on Wednesday
in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. The focus for the
remainder of the week will be on the dryline which looks to set up
in west TX on Thursday before sloshing westward into the NM plains
on Friday. Above normal temperatures would prevail, and western
zones would stay dry with low (10-15%) afternoon humidity while
breezy conditions prevail. Much uncertainty rests in the forecast
for Saturday due to the possible track outcomes of an upstream
Pacific low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  71  43  70 /   0  10  20  20
Dulce...........................  26  67  31  64 /   0  10  20  60
Cuba............................  32  63  36  63 /   0   5  20  50
Gallup..........................  32  68  35  67 /   0  30  30  30
El Morro........................  35  63  37  62 /   0  30  40  50
Grants..........................  31  66  36  65 /   0  20  30  50
Quemado.........................  37  65  39  64 /   5  40  40  40
Magdalena.......................  38  62  43  63 /   0  10  40  50
Datil...........................  34  62  39  61 /   0  30  40  50
Reserve.........................  32  67  35  67 /  10  40  40  40
Glenwood........................  35  70  38  72 /  10  30  40  30
Chama...........................  28  60  31  57 /   0  20  10  70
Los Alamos......................  38  62  41  60 /   0   5  20  70
Pecos...........................  30  64  35  60 /   0   5  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  32  62  34  58 /   0  10  20  70
Red River.......................  26  56  29  52 /   0  20  20  80
Angel Fire......................  16  60  23  55 /   0  20  20  80
Taos............................  27  65  31  62 /   0  10  10  70
Mora............................  29  63  34  58 /   0  10  10  70
Espanola........................  34  69  38  66 /   0   5  10  60
Santa Fe........................  37  63  41  62 /   0   5  20  70
Santa Fe Airport................  35  66  39  65 /   0   5  20  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  67  47  66 /   0   5  20  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  69  48  68 /   0   5  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  37  71  42  71 /   0   5  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  69  47  69 /   0   5  20  40
Belen...........................  36  70  44  71 /   0   5  30  40
Bernalillo......................  40  70  45  70 /   0   5  20  50
Bosque Farms....................  35  70  41  70 /   0   5  30  40
Corrales........................  40  70  45  70 /   0   5  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  35  69  43  70 /   0   5  30  40
Placitas........................  41  66  46  66 /   0   5  20  50
Rio Rancho......................  42  68  46  69 /   0   5  20  40
Socorro.........................  40  69  47  70 /   0   5  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  63  41  62 /   0   5  20  50
Tijeras.........................  38  64  43  64 /   0   5  20  60
Edgewood........................  33  64  39  63 /   0   5  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  67  33  65 /   0   5  20  50
Clines Corners..................  31  62  38  60 /   0   5  20  60
Mountainair.....................  32  64  40  63 /   0   5  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  31  63  40  63 /   0   5  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  36  64  43  64 /   0  10  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  33  60  39  57 /   0  10  50  50
Capulin.........................  31  63  30  62 /   0   0   0  50
Raton...........................  27  69  30  65 /   0   5   5  60
Springer........................  28  69  32  67 /   0   5   5  60
Las Vegas.......................  30  64  35  61 /   0   0   5  60
Clayton.........................  41  69  40  67 /   0   0   0  30
Roy.............................  34  64  37  63 /   0   0   0  50
Conchas.........................  34  71  41  70 /   0   0   0  40
Santa Rosa......................  33  67  40  66 /   0   0   5  40
Tucumcari.......................  37  73  42  70 /   0   0   0  40
Clovis..........................  37  71  42  66 /   0   0   5  30
Portales........................  35  75  41  68 /   0   0   5  30
Fort Sumner.....................  33  69  41  68 /   0   0   5  30
Roswell.........................  39  70  46  67 /   0   5  20  40
Picacho.........................  35  64  43  64 /   0   5  30  50
Elk.............................  31  62  38  61 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ104-123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52