Aztec, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

856
FXUS65 KABQ 221145 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
445 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 438 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

 - A dry and unseasonably warm weather pattern will persist
   through Christmas Eve, with high temperatures generally around
   10-20F above average.

 - A weak winter storm on Christmas Day and night will bring some
   accumulating snow to the northern mountains and near Raton
   Pass. West winds will increase areawide, particularly along and
   east of the central mountain chain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

Dry and unusually warm conditions will persist through Christmas
Eve, followed by a fast moving and weak winter storm that will
bring accumulating snow to the northern mountains and near Raton
Pass through Christmas night. This storm will also bring breezy to
locally windy conditons with a cold front, but temperatures behind
the front are still forecast to remain a few degrees above normal
going into Thursday. A weak disturbance may bring some light snow
to northern NM on Friday with more breezy to locally windy
conditons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today and tonight under
zonal flow aloft. High temperatures are forecast to vary around 13
to 20 degrees above 1991-2020 averages this afternoon, with a few
near record readings likely mainly over eastern parts of the
forecast area. A modestly strong lee trough will induce gusty winds
today across the east central highlands and plains. A weak upper
level trough will track east southeastward across the forecast area
tonight with thickening high and mid clouds causing low temperatures
to soar tonight around 8-18 degrees above 30-year averages. In
addition, a Pacific cold front will cross tonight, then a backdoor
cold front will sag southward through the eastern plains on Monday,
causing high temperatures to fall a few to 15 degrees from today`s
readings. Cloud cover will also linger over eastern areas for much
of Monday. Nonetheless, Monday`s high temperatures will still
reach around 5 to 15 degrees above average for the date.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

A weak cold front will continue progressing south across the area
Monday night as an amplifying upper level ridge progresses east
into the Rockies. Temperatures behind the front on Tuesday will
be cooler, but still 5-10 degrees or more above normal. An upper
level trough is forecast to close off a low as it progresses
rapidly east toward the southern Rockies and NM on Christmas Eve.
The upper low is forecast to deepen some as it moves east along
the NM/CO border on Christmas Day, bringing a round of
precipitation to northern NM and displacing the strongest winds
further south across central/southern portions of the area. Winds
are forecast to remain below advisory threshold at this time, but
that could change for the south central mountain and adjacent
eastern highlands. The 00Z medium range model solutions are in
good agreement with the timing/progression of the upper low
Christmas Day/Night, leading to a moderate/high confidence
forecast. The 00Z GFS, however, is advertising lower pressure
heights at 500mb by 5dam or so and colder temperatures aloft.
700mb temperatures are forecast to be somewhere between -4 to -7C
and given a relatively dry lower boundary layer, evaporative
cooling should bring a fairly quick change-over of rain to snow
at the lower elevations. There is no preceding backdoor cold front
to help with the forcing and given the short residence time of
the upper low over NM, snow amounts will likely stay below
advisory threshold. Several inches are possible in the northern
mountains and between Raton Pass and Des Moines. The Johnson and
Bartlett Mesas may be the one forecast zone that requires an
advisory due to potential impacts along I-25 through Raton Pass
and along US 64/87 near Capulin and Des Moines. There is some
potential for this system to overperform with snow amounts in that
area due to wrap-around precipitation continuing as the upper low
ejects out into the TX/OK Panhandles Christmas night and pulls
Gulf moisture into it`s circulation. The upper low will bring a
cold front and colder conditions going into Thursday, but
temperatures are still forecast to remain a few degrees above
normal for late December. Another upper level trough may bring a
round of light snow to northern NM on Friday, but disagreement
among the 00z medium range model solutions is leading to a quick
drop-off in forecast confidence beyond Christmas night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. West and
northwest winds will be gusty from Clines Corners and Ruidoso and
eastward to around Clovis and Portales this afternoon. High clouds
will increase from the west this afternoon, then thicken with
ceilings lowering to around 10,000 FT in many locations along and
west of the central mountain chain tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

There will be areas of ventilation improvement over southern parts
of the forecast area today, then moreso on Monday as cold fronts
cross. Vent rates will then plummet into the poor category areawide
on Tuesday, before rebounding as a weather system crosses from the
west northwest on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The storm system
will move quickly and won`t have much moisture with it, so only a
few to perhaps 5 inches of snow are forecast over the northern
mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night.  There will be a mix of
light rain and snow elsewhere along and west of the central mountain
chain Wednesday, then over northeast areas Wednesday night. After
temperatures well above 30-year averages today through Tuesday,
readings will fall a little closer to the averages Wednesday and
Thursday, then remain there Friday as another upper level trough
crosses the central and southern Rockies. Light rain and snow
showers will again be possible over western and northern areas
Thursday night and Friday as northwest winds become gusty. A ridge
of high pressure is forecast to build over the southwest US in the
coming weekend with warmer temperatures, dry weather, and light
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  27  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  57  19  53  14 /   0   0   5   5
Cuba............................  57  27  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  60  23  57  15 /   0   5   0   0
El Morro........................  58  30  53  24 /   0   5   0   0
Grants..........................  62  23  56  18 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  62  29  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  63  36  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  61  33  55  27 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  67  24  65  19 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  69  38  67  32 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  54  22  48  16 /   0   0  10   5
Los Alamos......................  54  34  50  30 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  59  35  54  26 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  54  28  48  22 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  48  25  41  19 /   0   0   5  10
Angel Fire......................  53  17  47  13 /   0   0   5   5
Taos............................  56  21  51  17 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  62  32  54  23 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  60  27  57  23 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  55  34  52  29 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  57  29  54  24 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  38  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  30  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  60  27  61  24 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  62  32  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  60  26  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  61  32  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  60  28  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  58  36  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  32  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64  33  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  34  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  57  35  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  59  31  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  61  24  57  20 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  57  31  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  59  32  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  59  32  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  62  35  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  61  39  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  61  32  48  25 /   0   0   0   5
Raton...........................  64  29  53  21 /   0   0   0   5
Springer........................  63  28  53  19 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  64  33  55  25 /   0   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  68  35  53  30 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  64  34  54  25 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  68  33  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  69  40  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  33  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  69  37  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  70  37  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  72  36  64  26 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  36  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  73  40  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  73  39  68  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44