Aztec, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS65 KABQ 092344 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

- Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding through late this
  evening increases to high on Tuesday. There will also be a low
  risk of urban flash flooding each afternoon.

- A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in
  central and eastern New Mexico through the evening then in south
  central and southeast New Mexico Tuesday afternoon.

- Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus
  far late this week into early next week, creating moderate to
  major heat risk in most lower elevation locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Higher moisture behind a backdoor front that pushed as far west as
the Continental Divide along with a weak upper level disturbance
moving southeast across the southern Rockies has resulted in the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the northern and
western mountains this afternoon thanks to daytime heating. A few of
these storms are strong to severe and producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Storms are also impacting the HPCC burn scar
currently with a heightened risk for flash flooding and potential
debris flow on the burn scar.Activity along and west of the
Continental Divide is drier in nature due to lower surface dewpoints
and producing more in the way of gusty and erratic wind gusts than
wetting rainfall.

Going into this evening, storms will fill into lower elevations
across central and eastern NM, including the ABQ Metro. Storms could
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall that could leading to flash flooding across ditches and
normally arroyos. Hi res guidance shows the storms currently across
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains coalescing into a MCS as it moves
southeast across the eastern highlands and plains. The severe threat
will transition from large hail to damaging wind gusts on the
leading edge of this MCS as this occurs. Storms will taper off along
and west of the central mountain chain at around sunset and across
eastern NM around midnight as the MCS exits into West Texas. The
outflow from this MCS will also result in a gusty east canyon wind
across the ABQ Metro this evening.

Going into Tuesday, a weak upper low/trough undercutting the ridge
over the western U.S. approaches the NM bootheel. This combined with
daytime heating and plentiful moisture (PWATs around 0.6 across
western NM to just over an inch across eastern NM) will result in
the development of widespread showers and storms across the mountain
ranges slowly moving east and filling into surrounding lower
elevations across central and eastern NM. Activity near the AZ
border will once again be drier in nature and produce more in the
way of gusty and erratic winds than rainfall. Additionally with
higher instability and better shear across south central and
southeast NM, storms in this part of the state could become strong
to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail. With the higher
storm coverage and taking into accounts today`s rainfall, the risk
for burn scar flash flooding will be high! For that reason, a Flash
FLood Watch has been issued for the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars.
Flash flooding for urban areas and normally dry ditches and arroyos
cannot be ruled out as well. Storms across the region taper off
around to just after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Tuesday`s baggy upper low exits east into the southern Great Plains
of Texas and Oklahoma on Wednesday. Moisture availability will be
similar to Tuesday, but subsidence behind the upper low should
result in a slightly lower coverage of showers and storms across the
higher terrain and have a tougher time filling into lower elevations
across central and eastern NM during the evening. A risk for burn
scar flash flooding will still exist for the HPCC and Ruidoso area
burn scars, especially with grounds saturated from rainfall the
prior two days. Shower and storm coverage becomes even more
scattered across the central mountain chain on Thursday afternoon
moving into eastern NM Thursday evening as drier westerly flow moves
into the state and PWATs drop to 0.4 inches across western NM, 0.5
to 0.6 inches across central NM, and 0.8 to 0.9 inches across
eastern NM.

The main story Friday into the weekend becomes the heat as the
monsoon high builds north over the desert SW strengthening to 596 dam
over central and southern NM. Temperatures in the 90s to near 100
will be common across most locations below the mountain ranges.
Albuquerque could get close or achieve it`s first 100 degree day
early next week! With the hotter temperatures, a moderate to major
risk for heat related illnesses will exist during the afternoon and
early to mid evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Several thunderstorms continue to develop across central and eastern
NM this evening. Additionally, outflow boundaries have begun to
collide in west-central NM, beginning to spark up additional storms.
The main focus are the storms in east-central NM, which are very
likely to continue to move east-southeast across the state,
persisting to the NM/TX border through 04-06z. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are the primary threats with any stronger to
severe storm through this evening. Terminals from KCAO to KSXU/KTCC
southward to KROW all may be affected by these storms. Activity is
likely to taper off after 06z, though some remnant showers may
remain over the high terrain and over extreme southeast NM. VFR
conditions are likely to remain through the night, though leftover
clouds should leave ceilings between 10,000ft and 20,000ft across
much of central and eastern NM. Locally, outflow boundaries have
begun to push an east canyon wind through the central mountains
affecting KABQ. Gusts may continue to peak around 30-35kt through 05-
06z. Moving into tomorrow, another round of thunderstorm development
is expected to begin around 17z across the high terrain and continue
to the end of this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

No fire weather concerns through early next week. Widespread shower
and storm activity favoring the higher terrain through Tuesday.
Shower and storm activity lowers mid week as drier westerly flow
begins to move in. Dry and hot weather (and low min RH values along
and west of the central mountain chain) is favored late week into
early next week as an upper high builds north and strengthens over
the region. Hot temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 are expected
across lower elevations resulting in a moderate to major risk for
heat related illnesses during the afternoon and early to mid evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  89  56  91 /  10  10   5   5
Dulce...........................  45  82  44  85 /  10  50  10  20
Cuba............................  51  80  51  84 /  30  40  20  20
Gallup..........................  48  87  48  89 /  20  20  10   5
El Morro........................  51  81  50  85 /  20  30  20  20
Grants..........................  50  83  49  87 /  20  40  20  20
Quemado.........................  53  84  53  87 /  20  30  20  20
Magdalena.......................  56  82  56  86 /  40  60  30  40
Datil...........................  52  81  51  85 /  30  50  20  40
Reserve.........................  49  89  50  92 /  10  20  10  20
Glenwood........................  53  93  54  95 /   0  20   5  20
Chama...........................  44  76  44  78 /  10  50  20  30
Los Alamos......................  53  77  55  80 /  50  50  20  40
Pecos...........................  50  75  51  80 /  50  60  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  46  76  47  79 /  30  50  20  50
Red River.......................  40  66  40  69 /  30  50  10  50
Angel Fire......................  37  70  37  73 /  30  50  10  40
Taos............................  45  79  46  81 /  30  50  10  40
Mora............................  46  72  45  77 /  40  60  20  50
Espanola........................  53  83  54  88 /  40  50  20  30
Santa Fe........................  53  77  54  82 /  40  50  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  53  82  53  85 /  40  50  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  84  61  90 /  30  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  86  61  91 /  30  40  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  88  60  93 /  30  40  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  86  60  91 /  30  30  20   5
Belen...........................  59  88  58  93 /  40  40  20  10
Bernalillo......................  58  87  58  93 /  30  30  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  58  88  57  92 /  30  40  20  10
Corrales........................  59  87  59  93 /  30  30  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  59  88  58  92 /  30  40  20  10
Placitas........................  58  84  59  88 /  30  30  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  59  86  59  92 /  30  30  20   5
Socorro.........................  62  90  61  96 /  40  50  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  78  53  84 /  40  40  30  20
Tijeras.........................  55  81  55  86 /  40  40  30  20
Edgewood........................  51  79  51  85 /  40  50  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  80  48  87 /  50  50  30  30
Clines Corners..................  50  75  51  80 /  60  60  30  30
Mountainair.....................  52  79  53  85 /  50  50  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  52  80  51  85 /  50  60  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  59  82  58  86 /  40  60  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  52  72  52  78 /  30  80  30  60
Capulin.........................  49  75  49  79 /  40  20   5  20
Raton...........................  48  80  48  84 /  30  30   5  30
Springer........................  49  80  49  84 /  30  40  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  48  74  49  80 /  50  50  20  40
Clayton.........................  56  81  56  83 /  40  10  10   5
Roy.............................  53  76  53  80 /  40  30  20  20
Conchas.........................  58  82  58  87 /  50  30  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  57  79  56  86 /  60  60  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  57  81  57  86 /  50  40  30  10
Clovis..........................  59  78  58  83 /  60  60  50  20
Portales........................  58  79  57  84 /  60  70  50  20
Fort Sumner.....................  59  82  58  86 /  60  60  40  30
Roswell.........................  64  85  63  91 /  50  60  50  30
Picacho.........................  57  79  57  85 /  40  60  40  50
Elk.............................  54  78  54  82 /  30  80  40  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-229.

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...77