Toms River, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

360
FXUS61 KPHI 231833
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
133 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure across New England will weaken and shift
offshore into tonight. A weak system will bring a round of light
wintry mixed precipitation to the region the morning of
Christmas Eve. Cool and dry high pressure will then settle to
our northeast, with mostly dry conditions and gradually
moderating temperatures. The high will retreat into the weekend,
yielding another possibility of precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of early this afternoon, high pressure is centered near Long
Island, while weak low pressure is west of Chicago. With the
high slowly retreating through tonight and warm advection
getting underway aloft ahead of the weak low pressure, expect
clear skies this evening to give way to thickening and lowering
clouds overnight. Temps likely bottom out in the upper teens and
low 20s this evening before starting to rise before dawn.

Precipitation with the associated weak low begins advancing into
the Poconos before dawn, but shouldn`t reach the I-95 corridor
until shortly after sunrise. Most areas start as snow showers,
but warm advection aloft will bring milder air into the Philly
metro, resulting in some mixed precip, with high potential for
freezing rain problems exacerbated by cold road temps. Thus,
even though amounts look very light, have expanded the
inherited winter weather advisory a few zones further north and
east, encompasing nearly the entire Philly metro. Further north,
precip should be mainly snow, and amounts should be mostly
under an inch. However, with cold road temps, even there we
could see slippery travel, so have issued an Special Weather
Statement for these areas highlighting the travel risks given
the holiday. Further south, any winter weather issues quickly
become more uncertain as latest guidance is mostly dissipating
precip while also warming temps, but potential does exist for a
bit of mixed precip south of the advisory, so for now have
issued another Special Weather Statement for these areas given
the possible mixed precip. Far southern areas should see little
precip, and what does fall is likely more plain rain than
anything else.

Warmer southerly winds should help bring temps up slowly but
surely through the day, and in fact skies likely start to clear
out later in the afternoon tomorrow. Highs for most should rise
above freezing, with 40s south of Philly and mid-upper 30s
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Following the potential light wintry precipitation on Christmas
Eve morning, Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day will feature
benign weather conditions.

The subtropical jet will be well to our south and polar jet
well to our north, leaving us with relatively weak zonal flow
locally. A weak shortwave will pass through Christmas night. At
the surface, high pressure will be located to our north to
northeast, with surface ridging extending southward into the
Mid Atlantic.

Overall, expect dry conditions and mostly sunny/clear skies
Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day. The weak wave will result
in some increasing cloud cover Christmas night. Most areas will
remain dry, but cannot completely rule out a stray flurry
Christmas night. Temperatures will rebound compared to the
frigid conditions over the weekend, but will remain about 5
degrees below normal across the board. Highs Christmas Day in
the 30s to low 40s and lows largely in the 20s to upper 10s.
Light north to northeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main story for the end of the week and into the weekend
will be the shifting synoptic pattern as weak ridging builds
across the eastern CONUS. The result will be moderating
temperatures to eventually above normal into the weekend, and a
lack of any significant weather. The details in the guidance
diverge into the weekend, but at this point it looks like there
could be a window of opportunity for some rainfall sometime over
the weekend. Some guidance is completely dry though. In any
case, so significant weather is expected at this point through
the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. S winds around 5 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR through 09Z, then MVFR or possibly IFR CIGs and
at least MVFR if not IFR vsby in light SN, mainly for KRDG/KABE,
after 09Z. Think precip mostly holds off until 12Z further
southeast. S winds less than 5 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in SN at KRDG/KABE/KTTN, SN/FZRA at
KPNE/KPHL/KILG, mainly 12Z-16Z. Precip may not reach KMIV/KACY.
Precip ending from west to east and improving to VFR after 18Z.
W winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Friday...No significant weather or
restrictions expected. Light north to northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Tuesday. S winds
around 10 kt this afternoon and tonight. Winds turn W around 10
kt on Tuesday. Seas 2 to 3 feet. VSBY restrictions in rain
and/or snow Tuesday morning, ending Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Friday...Conditions are expected to
remain below advisory criteria. North to northeast winds 10-15
kts and seas 2-3 feet. No significant weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     NJZ016>019.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...Staarmann
AVIATION...RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann