Cherry Hill, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

905
FXUS61 KPHI 051104
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
704 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Temperature forecast lowered for areas north and west of the
I-95 corridor this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Fog and low stratus lingers this morning as the backdoor
front crawls north ahead of an advancing cold front that will
bring a round of showers and thunderstorms.

2. Fire weather conditions possible on Monday and Tuesday.

3. Chilly temperatures Wednesday morning and Thursday morning may
affect the beginning of the growing season, where the growing season
is currently active.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog and low stratus lingers this morning as the
backdoor front crawls north ahead of an advancing cold front
that will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms.

The backdoor front from yesterday will slowly crawl north once
more across the region this morning as a warm front. The front will
likely get hung up in the higher elevations, likely around the
I-78 to I-95 corridor, but potentially further south from even
that. Regardless, north of the front, fog and low stratus will
hang on. South of the front, the fog will mix out and the
stratus will lift some, possibly scatter out for a brief
period, allowing some modest warming ahead of the advancing cold
front from the west. Temperatures could warm into the mid 60s
to low 70s south of the front before clouds increase and showers
and thunderstorms arrive along with the cold front from the
west around mid morning through early afternoon. This will
hinder typical diurnal heating for yet another day. North of the
front, temperatures are expected to only warm up to the mid 50s
to low 60s.

The line of showers and thunderstorms expected with this cold front
is forecast to drop around 0.5-0.75 inches of rain across the
region, with areas south and east seeing the best chances for
heavier rainfall and thunderstorms. The severe potential is rather
limited with only marginal instability (~300-700 J/kg MUCAPE)
developing across the southern half of the region, mainly Philly
metro and south. The early timing that is forecasted for this
frontal passage is another factor limiting the severe potential
today, bringing the line of showers and convection across the region
before daytime heating can fully destabilize the atmosphere. The SPC
has a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this region today.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will take a modest fall, with
overnight lows expected to dip into the mid 30s to low 40s; areas
across the Poconos could reach freezing. WNW winds will also gust to
around 15-20 mph for a period overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A slight risk of fire spread is possible on Monday
and Tuesday.

A period of fire weather conditions is possible on Monday, but more
so on Tuesday as a dry airmass infiltrates the area. MinRH values
will be in the 30-40% range across much of the area for Monday
afternoon with westerly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25
mph. By Tuesday morning, a secondary cold front is forecast to pass
through the region. This will cause dew points to fall into the
teens. MinRH values will be in the 25-35% range with northwest winds
around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph.

At this time, these conditions do not meet Red Flag Warning criteria
on Monday, but will be close on Tuesday. Depending on how dry fuel
moisture are across the region, we may need to consider a Special
Weather Statement for an increased risk of fire spread. We will be
in contact with our partners at a later time to determine if a SPS
is warranted.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Chilly temperatures Wednesday morning and Thursday
morning may affect the beginning of the growing season, where the
growing season is currently active.

Strong Canadian 1040 mb high pressure will settle over New York
State on Wednesday morning before shifting off the New England coast
by Thursday morning. In wake of a cold front on Tuesday, a
reinforcing shot of cold, dry air will arrive Tuesday night and
linger into Wednesday night. Low temperatures will fall into the low
to mid 20s to low to mid 30s for most locales, with teens in the
Poconos by Wednesday morning. Considering that the growing season is
now active across portions of the Delmarva, patchy areas of frost
are possible. However, with such a dry airmass in place, frost
formation may be limited.

Temperatures will be somewhat similar for Thursday morning, but with
the high shifting offshore, lows should be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday. With closer dew point depressions expected for Thursday
morning, suppose more patchy frost is possible. Will continue to
monitor forecast trends and evaluate if any frost headlines may be
warranted in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Sunday...IFR CIGS likely lingering across most sites with the
exception of MIV/ACY where the warm front has crept north of
already. A line of SHRA or TSRA associated with a cold front is
expected to move through the region from W to E, bringing VIS
and CIG restrictions once again. Timing of the front has it
arriving at KRDG and KABE between 13 and 18Z, KPHL, KILG, KPNE,
KTTN between 15 and 20Z, and KMIV and KACY between around 17 and
21Z. Once the line of SHRA and TSRA moves by, conditions should
return to VFR quickly. Winds will start S or SW around 10 to 15
kt, but with the line of SHRA and TSRA, expect an abrupt shift
to W or even NW winds around 10G20KT. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night... Except for any lingering showers across southern NJ
or Delaware during Sunday evening, mostly VFR is expected. Patchy
rural fog possible Monday morning. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Gusty winds up to 20 kt possible on
Monday with gusty winds up to 25-30 kt possible on Tuesday.
Otherwise, no significant weather.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions through Sunday night. The backdoor front will retreat
north as a warm front this morning, shifting winds SW and ramping up
to around 20-25 kts with seas building to 4-8 feet.

A cold front will push through Sunday afternoon, shifting winds WNW
behind it. There may be a lull in winds immediately behind the
front, but winds overnight will ramp back up to 20-25 kts. Seas will
stay elevated around 4-6 feet.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds
generally 20 kt or less and seas of 2-4 feet.

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible with winds
gusting around 25 kt.

Tuesday night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Winds
generally 20 kt or less and seas of 2-4 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/MJL